jayyy Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 As much as the OP models suck the ensembles aren't nearly as badFixed. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 So the HRRR Is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 At 25 the NAM is substantially wetter and broader In TX 30 definitely more moisture slinging north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I'm ready for our first snowfall. 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: At 25 the NAM is substantially wetter and broader In TX 30 definitely more moisture slinging north I guess its better than the previous run..but the it just seems to dry out over the mountains. maybe some mood flakes which I would gladly take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, J.Mike said: I'm ready for our first snowfall. You’re going to ride that all the way to Colorado? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: At 25 the NAM is substantially wetter and broader In TX 30 definitely more moisture slinging north 3k is a little better. Seems to be because the coastal gets going a little sooner/stronger. Not sure that's how we'd win around DC/Balt but it that was a real trend at some point it could spell well for the southern parts of the subforum - couple models have had a "victory" stripe of 1" or so down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k is a little better. Seems to be because the coastal gets going a little sooner/stronger. Not sure that's how we'd win around DC/Balt but it that was a real trend at some point it could spell well for the southern parts of the subforum - couple models have had a "victory" stripe of 1" or so down there. "Victory stripe.." love that! LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 hours ago, ravensrule said: I’ll stay up for 3 days to see .5” Why stay up when you can find what you’re looking for at home 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 3k is a little better. Seems to be because the coastal gets going a little sooner/stronger. Not sure that's how we'd win around DC/Balt but it that was a real trend at some point it could spell well for the southern parts of the subforum - couple models have had a "victory" stripe of 1" or so down there. Definitely not there yet but marked improvement with the low 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Why stay up when you can find what you’re looking for at home . Now that’s funny. Unfortunately the truth hurts and i lost my microscope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, mappy said: Why stay up when you can find what you’re looking for at home 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 12 minutes ago, ravensrule said: . Now that’s funny. Unfortunately the truth hurts and i lost my microscope. You set it up perfectly, surprise no one took the bait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, mappy said: You set it up perfectly, surprise no one took the bait People are so distraught over no snow, they can’t comprehend what they’re reading. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Updated lwx. Nearly a forum-wide dusting!. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Updated lwx. Nearly a forum-wide dusting! . Decent chance for first flakes for many -- I suppose we have to start somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 32 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Updated lwx. Nearly a forum-wide dusting! . I love when LWX is playing catch up! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 55/42, pressure rising. Let's do this! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 For being 42 hours out this will either get much better or suck and fall apart 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 50 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: For being 42 hours out this will either get much better or suck and fall apart Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Why?I assume he means because of the spread among ensemble members. They mostly show either a hit with a couple inches or zilch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I’d argue that there are more hits on the GEFS than at 12z. The problem is that this can fail multiple ways. Temps, a poor track, or possible lack of moisture if energy gets eaten up by the Apps. Other models which show lackluster solutions have one or more of these scenarios playing out. Really hope we can thread the needle and at least get a wintry scene across the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 HRRR bringing precip in a little earlier out this way. Tomorrow evening onset. Temps look really good. Snow into DC by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 mod snow for dc area for 2 hours and counting, still running 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 HRRR bringing precip in a little earlier out this way. Tomorrow evening onset. Temps look really good. It’s a step in the right direction to that .5-1” “victory stripe” solution for our most populated spots. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Prettty big increase on the SREF plumes area wide 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Let's hope for the few GEFS members to win tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Prettty big increase on the SREF plumes area wideShow me young Jedi . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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