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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!


Go Kart Mozart
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Here a note on the Northeast wind chill blast. The GFS has -40C temps at 850mb for the Caribou, Maine area. I think it will be very close to a record or record-breaking at Caribou. The record coldest 850mb temperature is -39.40 Celsius as per the SPC page that has this stuff. The "median" would be -11.7 Celsius.

 

minus 57 wind chill.jpg

mt washington.jpg

sfct_change_024h_obs.us_ne (1).png

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Just a short 30 min drive to the big city of Colebrook haha 

Yeah as much as I love outdoors/mountains/lakes/etc....being that far from civilization full time with small kids doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies. :lol:

 

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Interested to see how low BDL gets tonight. 

NBM/MOS guidance all pegs -7 and GFS/NAM bufkit support this too. 

Have to see how quickly temps drops in the next 3-4 hours. Looks like the core of the airmass there happens late evening. Have to wonder how much the wind will factor in keeping things just mixed enough to prevent a full on drop. 

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KMWN 1849Z 290 78G92KT –37/–37

..."Winds will continue to increase through the rest of the day, with winds speeds reaching 80-100 mph by Friday afternoon. Model guidance is also indicating that the tropopause could dip below the summit Friday night. As a result, winds will become more compressed in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, leading wind speeds to increase even further overnight Friday. The highest wind speeds will occur sometime between Friday night into Saturday morning as wind speeds ramp up to 100-115 mph with gusts up to 135 mph. Higher gusts are not completely out of the question, with the possibility for winds to peak as high as 140 mph very early Saturday morning.
Wind chills will be incredibly low and very dangerous, particularly above treeline. Wind chill values will start around 60 below to 70 below Friday morning and will continue to fall even further over the rest of the day. The coldest air from the center of the polar vortex will move through the region Friday night which will also coincide with the period of strongest winds. As a result, wind chill values will drop to a range of 100 to 110 degrees below zero Friday night.

I want to emphasize the danger of this cold. In these brutally cold conditions, the risk of hypothermia and frostbite will be exponential. These frigid cold conditions will quickly rob you of body heat, with the possibility that frostbite could develop on exposed skin in under a minute. Even small mistakes can prove deadly, with a simple slip or fogged goggles leading to a potentially life-threatening situation. In this type of weather, rescue services will have a difficult time responding to any emergency effectively."

https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather.aspx

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It's finally cooling off nicely up here.  From the late morning till early afternoon I hung around 0F.  Over the past hour temperatures have been falling.   Down to -6F with the aid of a lot of Cu/virga so we are not in full sun as earlier.  Winds are roaring through the trees.

Pack is a solid 11".  Glaciated  with that sleet we had in the last storm.  The snow slides off our metal roof but I have been doing some roof raking in the flatter areas just to keep the extra weight off  in the event of future big storms that I really don't see right now.   Looking forward to later this evening.  Models show me bottoming at -22F but I doubt that will happen.  Years ago I had a -19F and I think in 2016 about a -14F.

pack.jpg

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HRRR and Nam trended colder all day. Euro was coldest days leading up. American models playing catch up. All of them trending colder. Seems as if the slight delay in bringing cold air in vs what was forecast just 24hr ago is increasing cold potential tonight. With sun down. We might set some records tonight. Definitely in nne. Don't know about here.

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