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The event of the season - 2 days of hell!


Go Kart Mozart
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3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

I don't think it will even be close.  It's older there 90% of the time.  And, they've got snow cover to boot.

Where exactly is pit 2?   Incidentally MEX guidance has 0 for BOS-impressive for 6 days out.  I’m seeing BGR -18.   Gonna be special in ME for sure!

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

lol euro is colder

EPS and NAEFS are both outside of their model climate, this is a less than once every 10 years event based on forecasts.

90th-10th range for PWM Sat is 12 to 0. Even a high colder than 10 hasn't happened since 2018. 

Some wild ranges for Sat night though. 25-35 degree spreads between 90th-10th. I'm leaning 10th though. WAA aloft setting the inversion early and winds calm. Feels like a classic model bust as it moves the air mass out too quickly at the surface.

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15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Got to think the Euro is over doing the cold, especially in SNE with no snow cover. I will take something closer to the GFS, 0/-5 

I don’t think the snow cover will mean a lot…maybe highs on Saturday. It’s coming straight out of ON/QB where there’s plenty of snow. 925 is ridiculously cold so even mixing down dry adiabatically from there is going to give you some extreme temps. Sure, the euro could be going overboard in general, but the extra vertical layers may be helping it see just how low the core of that cold gets. 

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t think the snow cover will mean a lot…maybe highs on Saturday. It’s coming straight out of ON/QB where there’s plenty of snow. 925 is ridiculously cold so even mixing down dry adiabatically from there is going to give you some extreme temps. Sure, the euro could be going overboard in general, but the extra vertical layers may be helping it see just how low the core of that cold gets. 

The snow cover line is not that far north of the pike either...it's not like this is advecting off of 200 miles of bare ground.

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44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Meh, it’ll moderate, especially down here in the tropics. Snowpack is a good 100 miles north of here 

There's snow on the ground at KASH, which is only about 50 miles. It only seems like there's no snow anywhere because there really hasn't been any south of the border all year.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I don’t think the snow cover will mean a lot…maybe highs on Saturday. It’s coming straight out of ON/QB where there’s plenty of snow. 925 is ridiculously cold so even mixing down dry adiabatically from there is going to give you some extreme temps. Sure, the euro could be going overboard in general, but the extra vertical layers may be helping it see just how low the core of that cold gets. 

Yeah—anything close to this and we deep freeze lol

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53 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Pretty bad downside risk here for my dogwood and my peaches.  Gonna wrap them on Friday with burlap to see if that helps.  With a 12+ snowpack, if the wind drops at the wrong time, -25 is a possibility. Not a fan of -20, but it is inevitable every 10 years or so up here.

Not sure what kind of tree it was, but in 2016 where I lived there was a backyard peach tree. No crop that summer (anywhere in New England). But in 2017 there were so many peaches the branches were on the ground.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t think TAN will go below zero. I’d say 0 on the nose, would be my guess.

 

Im north and radiate much better, my guess is I see -4 maybe -5?

That’s what I am thinking here as well; let’s see what happens with model runs the rest of the week

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