Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS says coldest of the season but not so unusual for the coldest of the season. IOW-not historic. We'll see. Waiting this out before claiming victory but .. I don't personally have a problem with the event correcting that way as it nears. I mentioned this a couple of times; there's precedence for models over doing these kind of quick shot cold incursions. They are more frequently oversold ...even needing to get inside of day 5's before they start modulating down by some amount, be it 10 20 or even 30%. Eventually ...one comes along and gets us. I think 2016 may have pulled down a 95th percentile of whatever the d-drip awe looked like... ha. I mean, these models don't put out solutions that are IMpossible - they wouldn't be much use as geophysical tools if they did. My hesitation on the current theme is/was purely related to the majority cases, though. For whatever reason, in the past these kind of 'continental tuck' events have been too aggressive. Anyway, I want this at < 72 hours.. so we're nearing that deadline. We may have in fact already corrected this as much as it will - unknown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 850mb is actually a bit colder for at least Brian and my area. Even so the min's are a bit warmer than 6Z temps. Is that a function of the wind staying up Friday night? It’s probably a function of what oceanstwx was saying earlier . Models may struggle a several days out realizing temps won’t fall much with strong CAA overnite Friday . Now they are realizing temps won’t drop much overnite where winds stay up a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Keep trending it a little faster and that might happen, esp western areas I really don’t see anything faster . If anything my Friday 12z temp is a couple degrees milder than it was modeled a day ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I just meant the warm season in general. I might go through a couple more gallons of heating oil on Saturday than normal, but overall, my energy use has been less. Sports betting is now legal in Mass! Might have to do a few parlays to cover Saturday When I looked last week every CT station had record low heating degrees days for January. Here is BDL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe we can get some of the rad pits to decouple before sunrise Saturday. It won't be -20⁰ here, but I am a bit worried about my radiating pit....my peach trees have some interesting looking buds for January. Might have to start knitting some gloves for them....lost all of them last year because of the late season freeze. I refuse to lose them 2 years in a row... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 It's going to be interesting to see how the power grid handles this cold shot. That one in December caused all kinds of issues. I think I remember reading something like 40 million gallons of fuel oil had to be used during that cold snap in New England. With diesel over $5 the costs are astronomical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 56 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: That was it! We used to go with a group of 30 guys, the guy who arranged the trip owns Dalene Flooring in CT. We were prepared for the cold so it didn't bother us however a couple sleds needed help to start on morning. A little use of the leatherman allowed us to "Borrow" the hair dryer in one of the bathrooms at a motel to warm their engines Cleaning staff shared their extension cord lol. I wish I could remember where, one night we stayed at this huge log cabin like hotel up in the middle of nowhere. I think it may have been in the Jonquiere area? not sure, but we stayed at the Holiday Inn in "downtown" Jonquiere. That was at the height of the truck/trailer/sled theft debacle that was going on in QC at the time, and the HI had a gated/fenced in pool area to park sleds. there were several actually parked IN the pool-there was a lot of snow that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 This seems low but I guess not? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 What a dumb record. Not to mention Wind chill values were adjusted to account for new metrics for wind chill. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I assume he’s using the new formula only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Important to remember that modeled big cold nearly always moderates as it nears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I assume he’s using the new formula only. Still dumb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 You can toss that CON -50F. Bad ob. CON,1976-01-20 03:00,KCON 200300Z 05004KT 7SM CLR M26/M29 A3042 RMK SLP315 T12611294 57015 CON,1976-01-20 04:00,KCON 200400Z 00000KT 7SM CLR M24/M27 A3040 RMK SLP308 T12431271 CON,1976-01-20 05:00,KCON 200500Z 04040KT 7SM SCT100 M25/M27 A3037 RMK SLP298 T12551271 CON,1976-01-20 06:00,KCON 200600Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M23/M26 A3032 RMK SLP278 8/030 T12331261 57034 CON,1976-01-20 07:00,KCON 200700Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M22/M24 A3029 RMK SLP268 T12211243 Should be 04kt...not 40kt. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a dumb record. Not to mention Wind chill values were adjusted to account for new metrics for wind chill. 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: You can toss that CON -50F. Bad ob. CON,1976-01-20 03:00,KCON 200300Z 05004KT 7SM CLR M26/M29 A3042 RMK SLP315 T12611294 57015 CON,1976-01-20 04:00,KCON 200400Z 00000KT 7SM CLR M24/M27 A3040 RMK SLP308 T12431271 CON,1976-01-20 05:00,KCON 200500Z 04040KT 7SM SCT100 M25/M27 A3037 RMK SLP298 T12551271 CON,1976-01-20 06:00,KCON 200600Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M23/M26 A3032 RMK SLP278 8/030 T12331261 57034 CON,1976-01-20 07:00,KCON 200700Z 00000KT 7SM SCT100 M22/M24 A3029 RMK SLP268 T12211243 Should be 04kt...not 40kt. lol This is why I come here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Looks like that ORH -44F was Feb 2016. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is why I come here Evan Fisher must be the colder alter ego of Eric. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Euro pretty freaking cold! Historic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Euro holding tight -12 Bos sat am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Doesnt seem like the euro is backing off compared to 00z. Actually looked a bit further south with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 It’s all coming together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s all coming together. Wait.. wasn't it all falling apart? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 We hold and ready for the Euro to lead us into battle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 We’ve reduced ourselves to rooting for extremely uncomfortably frigid weather this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Arctic blast of yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We’ve reduced ourselves to rooting for extremely uncomfortably frigid weather this winter. Nope. Give me 35-45 F all winter if we not going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Arctic blast of yore No I won't back down gonna stand my ground. You can drop me off at the gates of hell but I won't back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 16 hours ago, qg_omega said: Hummm, Whiteface earned the nickname Iceface for a reason. New York winters can be brutally cold, we’re talking colder than Antarctica, cold. During a cold spell in 2016, the summit of New York’s fifth-highest mountain once reached -114℉ with wind chill. https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/blogs/vote-up/2016/02/15/youre-cold--114-summit-ny-mountain/80406860/ Old scale. Though -84 on the current scale is awesome anyway. The -34/35mph at our Fort Kent home at sunrise on Jan 18, 1982 was -101 on the old, -72 on the new. The -29/40mph at 9 the previous evening felt even worse. worst part of the 94 cold snap was it flipped warm. -25 at dinner to rain the next day and 40s then back below zero. Allagash went from -45 early on 1/27 up to 44 about 48 hours later. Brain-cracking numbers for CAR below: Jan 26 -13 -32 0 0 5th coldest max and tied for 2nd coldest mean. Jan 27 5 -23 0 0 Jan 28 45 -1 0.69 3.3 Jan 29 43 -3 0.30 0 Jan 30 -2 -20 0 0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: No I won't back down gonna stand my ground. You can drop me off at the gates of hell but I won't back down. I still do think it’s hard to go full throttle with euro temps. I think my first guess is still pretty good. Might go a few degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Y'all liquid nitrogen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Hopefully we get an equal heater this summer....120 HI's for all 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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