HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 7:19 PM, Ginx snewx said: Are there any Peter Sinks like spots up there. I remember some -40 readings in VT many years ago. Expand Island Pond gets pretty cold. My friend who built a house for snow mobilng up there has seen it a couple of times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 7:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: I am more inclined to believe the 2m temps in this type of setup vs the radiational cooling nights. The warmest 2m temps are the NAM right now which is your -5 to -6 range. GFS is maybe barely colder. Euro is wild with -10 or colder. I went back and looked at Vday 2016 and the Euro was going like -11 or -12 at BOS, so it ended up a couple degrees too cold, but not too far off. GFS was awful in that one....was like 5F too warm 36 hours out. Though I know the model has been upgraded since then. The MAV guidance was hilarious though....it was like 8-10F too warm. Too much climo on a 24 hour forecast i guess. Expand HRRR is -10. Part of me wonders that when the real strong CAA levels off on 300 winds, Logan sometimes will take 4 hrs to drop 1F. That's why earlier I was unsure of colder than -6, but with guidance still gung ho, -7 or -8 definitely looks close to a lock. Not that it matters a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 7:49 PM, CT Rain said: The wind on the BUFKIT soundings looks even worse today. 50-60 knots at the top of the mixed layer. Man cold. Expand Damage Power outages!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 7:54 PM, CoastalWx said: HRRR is -10. Part of me wonders that when the real strong CAA levels off on 300 winds, Logan sometimes will take 4 hrs to drop 1F. That's why earlier I was unsure of colder than -6, but with guidance still gung ho, -7 or -8 definitely looks close to a lock. Not that it matters a whole lot. Expand -35 850 temps are pretty ridiculous...but I'd like to see other guidance a little colder at 925. Vday was colder at 925 than this one is even though 850 might be colder this time. Euro is like -31 at 925 while GFS/NAM are -28 or -29....and that can explain most of the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Sugarloaf cutting back a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:03 PM, ORH_wxman said: -35 850 temps are pretty ridiculous...but I'd like to see other guidance a little colder at 925. Vday was colder at 925 than this one is even though 850 might be colder this time. Euro is like -31 at 925 while GFS/NAM are -28 or -29....and that can explain most of the difference. Expand What was 925 back in 2016 at Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:03 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Sugarloaf cutting back a bit Expand Losing a Saturday in February is tough for ski areas. Crowds will be thin at best on Saturday and non-existent on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school. Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time. Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary. She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut! I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:22 PM, wxeyeNH said: Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school. Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time. Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary. She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut! I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events. Expand Live free or die baby. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:22 PM, wxeyeNH said: Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school. Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time. Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary. She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut! I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events. Expand Meanwhile, Boston and Worcester are already closed for tomorrow (Worcester isn’t announced yet, but I know people…). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:07 PM, CoastalWx said: What was 925 back in 2016 at Logan? Expand Can;t find it....I want to say it was in the low -30s because it was slightly colder at 925 than 850 in that outbreak. The core of the cold was pretty low in the atmosphere. The HRRR is definitely the Euro camp with brutal cold at 925....like -32C or -33C at 925 vs -31 for Euro vs like -28 or -29 on NAM/GFS. There are your 2m differences explained just aloft. If Euro/HRRR are correct, then this will rival 2016. If GFS/NAM are correct, then it will fall several degrees short. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:31 PM, adam038 said: Meanwhile, Boston and Worcester are already closed for tomorrow (Worcester isn’t announced yet, but I know people…). Expand Damn-I have a meeting at the university at Noon. WAs look forward to weenieing out on my car thermometer especially on the way home. Hopefully no cancellation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 7:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Won’t matter anyway. Wind will be too strong. It might decouple further west though like around SLK. Those would be the rad pits to look at Friday night/early Saturday morning. Expand Oh I know just asking Brian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: Can;t find it....I want to say it was in the low -30s because it was slightly colder at 925 than 850 in that outbreak. The core of the cold was pretty low in the atmosphere. The HRRR is definitely the Euro camp with brutal cold at 925....like -32C or -33C at 925 vs -31 for Euro vs like -28 or -29 on NAM/GFS. There are your 2m differences explained just aloft. If Euro/HRRR are correct, then this will rival 2016. If GFS/NAM are correct, then it will fall several degrees short. Expand I had this saved on my ipad. H95 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:48 PM, Ginx snewx said: Oh I know just asking Brian Expand No idea…not on the small scale of something like peter sinks anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 The rare "Heavy Sea Spray Warning" has been issued. Let's take down some commuter ferries! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:31 PM, adam038 said: Meanwhile, Boston and Worcester are already closed for tomorrow (Worcester isn’t announced yet, but I know people…). Expand On 2/2/2023 at 8:39 PM, weathafella said: Damn-I have a meeting at the university at Noon. WAs look forward to weenieing out on my car thermometer especially on the way home. Hopefully no cancellation. Expand I doubt any Universities cancel. The public schools that cancel are prob more concerned with little kids at bus stops etc. plus if busses can’t start… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:00 PM, dendrite said: I had this saved on my ipad. H95 Expand Don't have euro, but gfs isn't far off those. Actually colder in NH. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:04 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I doubt any Universities cancel. The public schools that cancel are prob more concerned with little kids at bus stops etc. plus if busses can’t start… Expand Exactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 Still moving my step-daughter from Westfield to Quincy on Sat morning. Should be fun...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 8:22 PM, wxeyeNH said: Although we don't have kids I decided to call our school district superintendent's office to suggest cancelling school. Up here 125 miles north of Boston the cold is going to be well established by school time. Anyhow I got the superintendent's secretary. She thanked me for my concern but the tone in her voice was like, this guy is a nut! I don't think school systems have any guidance in place for cancelling schools except for snow type events. Expand Most school district in most Department of Public Works are completely out of touch with the weather, outside of what they hear from broadcast Mets, TWC or the NWS p/c forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:12 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Most school district in most Department of Public Works are completely out of touch with the weather, outside of what they hear from broadcast Mets, TWC or the NWS p/c forecasts. Expand My wife’s super already told them they would have a full school day. That’s a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:00 PM, dendrite said: I had this saved on my ipad. H95 Expand Nice, so that def is in line with 925 cracking -30C....we basically have: Euro/HRRR: Rivaling (or even slightly exceeding on HRRR) 2016 GFS: Just a tick below? Though for CNE/NNE, it is a little colder....slightly warmer in SNE. NAM: Several ticks warmer than 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:00 PM, dendrite said: I had this saved on my ipad. H95 Expand I just looked up GYX soundings it was -28.1 at 925 http://esrl.noaa.gov/raobs/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:23 PM, Ginx snewx said: I just looked up GYX soundings it was -28.1 at 925 http://esrl.noaa.gov/raobs/ Expand Euro Prog 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:21 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: My wife’s super already told them they would have a full school day. That’s a relief. Expand The big Western Mass cities have all canceled for tomorrow. Springfield, Holyoke and Chicopee. My gut tells me that Northampton and Greenfield will probably cancel also. Greenfield has a lot of kids that walk to school, so it will be interesting to see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 May as well go for the gold and cheer on euro and hrrr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:36 PM, CoastalWx said: May as well go for the gold and cheer on euro and hrrr. Expand 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 We wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 On 2/2/2023 at 9:36 PM, CoastalWx said: May as well go for the gold and cheer on euro and hrrr. Expand Welcome to the team. Go big or go home. It’s all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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