The event of the season - 2 days of hell!

[CoastalWx]

Could see a lot of 40-45kt gusts. 

[klw]

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is -10F here late afternoon tomorrow. Laced brownies.

That is 249.8 Kelvin, however, which sounds much warmer.

[eekuasepinniW]

Kinda sad that my windmill palm is about to go palm heaven. Pretty wild that it has made it this deep into winter essentially unharmed. If it wasn't for the next 3 nights, I truly believe it could have survived the winter.

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, wokeupthisam said:

Two invasive insect species of concern in NE could have significant mortality of this year's population, if we can get cold enough.  Both the Emarald Ash Borer (EAB) and Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) populations are susceptible to anomalous cold events, especially as temps approach -20F.
"...researchers from the U. S. Forest Service and Minnesota Department of Agriculture found that the supercooling temperature for the Minnesota EAB population was about -13°F. Based on these results, a model was created that predicts that about five percent of EAB larvae should die when temperatures reach 0°F, 34 percent at -10°F, 79 percent at -20°F, and an impressive 98 percent should die at -30°F. (Venette, R.C. & Abrahamson, M. (2010) Cold hardiness of emerald ash borer  PDF , Agrilus planipennis: a new perspective.) 

Studies on the HWA show similar results.  Also their mortality is higher when the cold occurs after a period of relatively milder conditions, as the insects gradually adapt their supercooling ability in sustained cold periods, so this event holds promise for a (temporary) setback for these insects in 2023 in NE.  I'm cheering for -20F here overnight Friday for that reason alone.  Seems like an ideal setup to hamper those invasives for a season anyway, while not prolonging the severe conditions for people and wildlife.  Bring it!

 

In addition perhaps the Moose ticks will be killed.  Winters have been so mild.  A quick freeze job for them too!

[Cold Miser]

18 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Kinda sad that my windmill palm is about to go palm heaven. Pretty wild that it has made it this deep into winter essentially unharmed. If it wasn't for the next 3 nights, I truly believe it could have survived the winter.

How long has it been there?

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Kinda sad that my windmill palm is about to go palm heaven. Pretty wild that it has made it this deep into winter essentially unharmed. If it wasn't for the next 3 nights, I truly believe it could have survived the winter.

What’s all that white stuff on the ground? Did you import sand from Sarasota?

[eekuasepinniW]

6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

How long has it been there?

Since 2012.  It was about 30 inches tall when I got it.

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

What’s all that white stuff on the ground? Did you import sand from Sarasota?

no that's snow

[Cold Miser]

12 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Since 2012.  It was about 30 inches tall when I got it.

Why do you think now is the time that it will die?  You have undoubtedly seen colder temps in the past 10 years.

[Hoth]

24 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

no that's snow

Snow? Never heard of it. 

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyone who wants to look at the raw power of pure CAA can look up 4/5/95. Bare ground and April sun angle with almost no clouds. We had a high of 26F I think in ORH that day. 

Farmington co-op, with 7 AM obs at the time, had a max of 16 with winds gusting to near 50.  Very short cold snap - highs on day before/after were 36/39.  Only one other April max under 22 there since 1893, 18 on 4/8/82.  

[SouthCoastMA]

my 'pack' is holding strong. should last through Sunday..then we hibernate and hope for a big end to February

 

[eekuasepinniW]

12 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Why do you think now is the time that it will die?  You have undoubtedly seen colder temps in the past 10 years.

It has always spent the winter in a giant heated polycarbonate box that stays above 20 degrees. It's deceptively larger than it looks in pictures and has become a way bigger engineering and construction project than I can handle, mostly because of my crippling fear of heights.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, klw said:

That is 249.8 Kelvin, however, which sounds much warmer.

What is that in kevins?

[powderfreak]

HRRR going full on.

[dendrite]

First ever MOS temp of -50F in New England I presume. lol

KMWN   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    2/02/2023  1200 UTC
DT /FEB   2/FEB   3                /FEB   4                /FEB   5
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                   -33         -30         -50         -10   -10
TMP   4  5  4  5 -2-13-24-33-36-40-42-44-46-43-37-30-25-20-15 -8  4
DPT   2  3  4  4 -2-13-24-33-36-40-42-44-46-43-45-41-37-30-22-14  0
CLD  OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV SC FW FW FW SC OV OV OV
WDR  26 25 25 26 28 29 30 30 30 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 26 25
WSP  33 38 50 59 63 63 67 64 62 61 64 71 74 81 86 87 70 61 45 40 45
P06         0    30    26     0     0     1     0     0     0  3 10
P12                    33           1           1           0    10
Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12                     0           0           0           0     0
T06      0/ 0  0/16  0/24  0/15  0/ 0  0/ 9  0/18  0/22  0/ 0  0/ 8
T12            0/19        0/24        1/14        1/22     2/ 6
POZ   1  1  1  2  2  3  3  2  0  1  1  2  2  3  3  2  0  2  2  3  4
POS  95 99 99 98 98 97 97 98100 99 99 99 98 97 97 98100 98 98 97 96
TYP   S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S
SNW                     1                       0                 0
CIG   1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  2  2  1  1  1
VIS   1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1
OBV  FG FG FG FG FG FG FG BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL FG FG

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

First ever MOS temp of -50F in New England I presume. lol

KMWN   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    2/02/2023  1200 UTC
DT /FEB   2/FEB   3                /FEB   4                /FEB   5
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                   -33         -30         -50         -10   -10
TMP   4  5  4  5 -2-13-24-33-36-40-42-44-46-43-37-30-25-20-15 -8  4
DPT   2  3  4  4 -2-13-24-33-36-40-42-44-46-43-45-41-37-30-22-14  0
CLD  OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV SC FW FW FW SC OV OV OV
WDR  26 25 25 26 28 29 30 30 30 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 29 26 25
WSP  33 38 50 59 63 63 67 64 62 61 64 71 74 81 86 87 70 61 45 40 45
P06         0    30    26     0     0     1     0     0     0  3 10
P12                    33           1           1           0    10
Q06         0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12                     0           0           0           0     0
T06      0/ 0  0/16  0/24  0/15  0/ 0  0/ 9  0/18  0/22  0/ 0  0/ 8
T12            0/19        0/24        1/14        1/22     2/ 6
POZ   1  1  1  2  2  3  3  2  0  1  1  2  2  3  3  2  0  2  2  3  4
POS  95 99 99 98 98 97 97 98100 99 99 99 98 97 97 98100 98 98 97 96
TYP   S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  S
SNW                     1                       0                 0
CIG   1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  2  2  1  1  1
VIS   1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1  1
OBV  FG FG FG FG FG FG FG BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL BL FG FG

I'm more annoyed that the timing is going to rob us of a -30F high temp.

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm more annoyed that the timing is going to rob us of a -30F high temp.

Let's see if they can get to -51F to break the all-time record.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm more annoyed that the timing is going to rob us of a -30F high temp.

They may get multiple -40 mins out of it though like in Jan 04.

For giggles that 6z output of -46F @ 74kt yields a WCI of -105.7F.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, wokeupthisam said:

Two invasive insect species of concern in NE could have significant mortality of this year's population, if we can get cold enough.  Both the Emarald Ash Borer (EAB) and Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) populations are susceptible to anomalous cold events, especially as temps approach -20F.
"...researchers from the U. S. Forest Service and Minnesota Department of Agriculture found that the supercooling temperature for the Minnesota EAB population was about -13°F. Based on these results, a model was created that predicts that about five percent of EAB larvae should die when temperatures reach 0°F, 34 percent at -10°F, 79 percent at -20°F, and an impressive 98 percent should die at -30°F. (Venette, R.C. & Abrahamson, M. (2010) Cold hardiness of emerald ash borer  PDF , Agrilus planipennis: a new perspective.) 

Studies on the HWA show similar results.  Also their mortality is higher when the cold occurs after a period of relatively milder conditions, as the insects gradually adapt their supercooling ability in sustained cold periods, so this event holds promise for a (temporary) setback for these insects in 2023 in NE.  I'm cheering for -20F here overnight Friday for that reason alone.  Seems like an ideal setup to hamper those invasives for a season anyway, while not prolonging the severe conditions for people and wildlife.  Bring it!

 

This is what I've read for HWA but I'm less optimistic on EAB.  Maine has two EAB invasions and the smaller one is in Northern Maine, having crossed the St. John from Edmundston, NB.  Van Buren, one town east from the infestation, has gotten down to -38 in recent years and crosses the -30 threshold in about half its winters.  Fort Kent, two towns west of the critters, generally runs 2-4° less cold than VB but has also been under -30 recently.  It's essentially all brown ash up there.  One of the auditors for our (Parks & Lands) forest certification lives in Sault S. Marie, ON, and 7-8 years ago he said that EAB had killed essentially all the ash in town.  Mostly green ash out there, and that species has shown no resistance/tolerance to the beetle; some white ash - most common ash in the Northeast - have shown tolerance.  Brown ash, a critically important tree to indigenous peoples in the Northeast, reacts like green ash.   I will look into the linked research, but in the Northeast and adjacent CA at least, enough EAB seems to survive those colder temps to maintain a population.

[ORH_wxman]

Wjat is the all-time lowest temps at MWN? I can see -46F in the Jan 1968 cold outbreak, but I don't see anything colder. But I could be missing one.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Let's see if they can get to -51F to break the all-time record.

Oh I just posted above....is -50 the current record? I saw -46.

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I just posted above....is -50 the current record? I saw -46.

-50F from January 22, 1885. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/scec/records

[ORH_wxman]

Actually my period of record on climod is 1948....but MWN prob had another site before that. I know they go back further.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

-50F from January 22, 1885. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/scec/records

And interesting Vermont and Maine also have -50F for the record. New York's record is -52F at Old Forge. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They may get multiple -40 mins out of it though like in Jan 04.

For giggles that 6z output of -46F @ 74kt yields a WCI of -105.7F.

Honestly can't remember having a -33 degree DP

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

-50F from January 22, 1885. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/scec/records

Interesting note there. That must have been added to the database relatively recently.

Value: -50°F
Date: January 22, 1885
Location: Mount Washington
Station: 14755
Status: NA

Value of -50°F exceeds the previously reported all-time minimum temperature extreme of -46 on 1/8/1968. The -50°F is not yet present in NCDC's digital data files but exists on observation forms and publications in NCDC archives. The value ties with Vermont and Maine for coldest temperature recorded in the Northeast region of the United States.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Honestly can't remember having a -33 degree DP

Jan 14, 1988 in spots? ORH and BDL had -30s.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

WRF-ARW model for the win! 

 

 

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Jan 14, 1988 in spots? ORH and BDL had -30s.

A day (actually, 2 days) to remember.  Our staff biologist and I made a 3-day trip to see northern Maine sites with BPL's North region foresters.  The afternoon of the 14th we were on the Soper Mountain public lot, next to Big Eagle Lake in Allagash country.  It was mild - low 30s - when a snow squall arrived and the temp began to fall.  We then drove to Portage Lake as we were staying at the Maine Forest Service building on the east shore of the lake.  By the time we got back there from dinner it was -2 with howling wind.  Next morning the temp was -32 there and the wind gauge was hovering above/below 30 mph.  (MFS has quality instruments, important for fire control purposes.)  CAR reported -20 with WCI -85 (old scale - probably near -60 on the new).  When one drives 250 miles to see something, one goes out, or as one UM forestry professor used to say, "There's no such thing as inclement weather, only improper clothing."
In the morning we were mostly sheltered from the wind.  Not so after noon, at the Bald Mountain public lot about 20 miles west of Ashland and 800-1000 feet higher than CAR, where the max was -9.  We were okay in the woods, but about 4 when we got back to the sleds, the wind was still roaring with the temp likely in the -15 range.  The ride back included 2 miles on plowed road due to the only place we could park, and I was riding 2nd up on a tundra behind a regional forester about 5'1" tall - no place for me to hide.  1988 Tundras maxed out at maybe 45 mph and the quartering headwind probably meant an apparent speed closer to 60.  I held my fists against my cheeks, which helped but left me with hourglass-shaped white spots, fortunately 1st degree frostbite with no lasting impact.  Day 3, at Deboullie, was cold but not very windy, just another cold day in N. Maine.

[SJonesWX]

non-weather weenies have no clue about the temps tomorrow. i was in a meeting earlier and this one chick was saying how the high was going to be 19 tomorrow, so "not too cold". I didn't have the heart to tell her that unless she is awake at midnite, there ain't no way she will be seeing 19 degrees at any point tomorrow.