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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Ice Possibilities


Holston_River_Rambler
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23 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I see @BlunderStorm on here. I was about to ask if you were seeing any snow

It's been particularly heavy at times since roughly 4. Sat TV has been practically out or a parade of glitched frozen frames since. I didn't think this band would pull through or verify as advertised but I cared enough to set an alarm in case. And well, I got a half surprise with the marginal temps.

There's definitely some wonky temperature profiles above me as the snow has been hitting partially melted. Seeing as how the flakes wouldn't have time to do so with a shallow warm layer at the surface.

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It's been particularly heavy at times since roughly 4. Sat TV has been practically out or a parade of glitched frozen frames since. I didn't think this band would pull through or verify as advertised but I cared enough to set an alarm in case. And well, I got a half surprise with the marginal temps.
There's definitely some wonky temperature profiles above me as the snow has been hitting partially melted. Seeing as how the flakes wouldn't have time to do so with a shallow warm layer at the surface.

I can’t remember where you’re at.


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2 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

8bac8edb1907d2de220f8a4e1ba8df8a.jpg

Russell county VA about 40 mins up route 19 from Abingdon or an hour NW of Gate City. Just up the Clinch.  :guitar:

A sign of the times when 1 inch slush/melt snow here in Wise ellicits all kinds of phone calls this morning.   Pretty bleak compared to what we used to routinely get up here.

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This was a textbook over-running event in west TN.  When we see cold charge into TX w/ a slight eastward push...it often doesn't make it past the Plateau or even to the Plateau at all.  Wave after wave of frozen precip rolled through that area.  Modeling did a great job with this event, especially the CMC and RGEM.  The Euro was very late in recognizing where the cold air boundary was.  Also, the GFS(which was thrown out by some services) was very close to being right w/ its cold air boundary.  The GFS has been decent inside of 5 days.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

This was a textbook over-running event in west TN.  When we see cold charge into TX w/ a slight eastward push...it often doesn't make it past the Plateau or even to the Plateau at all.  Wave after wave of frozen precip rolled through that area.  Modeling did a great job with this event, especially the CMC and RGEM.  The Euro was very late in recognizing where the cold air boundary was.  Also, the GFS(which was thrown out by some services) was very close to being right w/ its cold air boundary.  The GFS has been decent inside of 5 days.

Yes, but quicker to realize the sagging south of the final wave of precip where other modeling had it into east TN..... so I guess not great, but good on the back end.

 

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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

This was a textbook over-running event in west TN.  When we see cold charge into TX w/ a slight eastward push...it often doesn't make it past the Plateau or even to the Plateau at all.  Wave after wave of frozen precip rolled through that area.  Modeling did a great job with this event, especially the CMC and RGEM.  The Euro was very late in recognizing where the cold air boundary was.  Also, the GFS(which was thrown out by some services) was very close to being right w/ its cold air boundary.  The GFS has been decent inside of 5 days.

Yeah, it was just tough when you know we were oh so close to a really nice snow event.  But that is life, just glad we got to see some wintry action!

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I agree the GFS while wild outside 5 days was pretty good inside 5. I think the CMC did the best with overall pattern recognition. The euro struggled with boundary location and played catch-up. The GFS did sound the alarm on it in way out range but then fluctuated wildly until day 5. The Canadian seemed to catch on early and pretty much lock it in. Just my summary from a novice.

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