Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 Back to the RGEM though, it continues to insist that the 3rd wave Thursday is still looking rough wrt ice: 6z RGEM for the entire event: and that is the FRAM product that takes into account melting. Latest NWS blend finally made a jump toward the more SE solutions (run over run trend for the past 9 runs) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Man this place is more dead than when we have boring weather. LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Never seen anything like this, Pea size sleet in the middle of a thunderstorm. CHECK IT OUT! I hope it is alright to post here because it does have to do with this system and it is not like there is a lot going on in the forum at the moment. Thundersleet is trending on Twitter so if you have an account, there is some very interesting videos there now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KnoxLC Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Any chance we get another southeast jog that actually puts Knox County into the frozen action for Thursday/Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Dallas also reporting heavy sleet at the moment, roads will be a mess if that trend continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, snowmaker said: Man this place is more dead than when we have boring weather. LOL Well, a guess a large group of posters in the east aren't too thrilled with a week of cold rain. To be fair, it is a gross, nasty, 40 degree rain. Just a bleak affair here, the grass is practically mud. There are still a few here posting though! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 In Wise VA currently. Temp is down to freezing. Already colder than progged for this hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Looks like 70% of the state of Texas is now under a winter storm warning, south-western Arkansas also in on that warning upgrade. Should be a fun day weather wise across the nation to say the least. I Picked up some icing with last nights system here in bolivar. Maybe .10 of an inch max so far, nice glaze of ice on all the trees and cars. round 2 tonight looks like it’s going to pack more of a punch though. Supposed to start here around 4pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 26 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . Dont think we even got below freezing last night and we still are not right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Dont think we even got below freezing last night and we still are not right nowIt feels like the temp in Knoxville has really fell off the past hour or so. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Got to 33 here in Smyrna. This is more of a nuisance event. Thankfully. After all the damage to shrubs from the Christmas cold. I do not won’t any part of trees being damaged by ice. Whatever happens is short lived & by this weekend is long gone. Going to be very nice temp wise coming up. I expect to be mowing my yard in a couple weeks. Buttercups will be blooming by mid February is my guess. They already are coming up. If we had not had that Christmas cold this would be a very uneventful winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Main wave comes into tonight. That is when the boundary presses SE on modeling. Boundary temps are not fighting sun angles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 hours ago, snowmaker said: Man this place is more dead than when we have boring weather. LOL Normally, us folks in the east refrain from wholesale rants about winter events to our west(i.e "it missed us" posts). I think that is one of the great things about our forums. It doesn't descend into chaos. So, we just sit quietly. We all know that middle and west TN folks had to endure our shouts for joy during the many winters prior to these three Nina events. So, out of tradition, we either chime in w/ info about the event or just watch. And trust me, we can go a week in here w/out a single post during boring weather! LOL. Also, I don't see any huge changes to modeling. I could post some ice and sleet maps, but they generally look the same. Tonight will tell the story one way or the other. So, really just hoping to see some reports from the gang in middle and west TN once the sun sets and precip moves in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Temps on the central plateau actually going up. Was 34 at 9am and now up to 40. I need electricity for water (well) and wifi (no cell service), so I won't complain if the ice misses my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: It feels like the temp in Knoxville has really fell off the past hour or so. . Temp definitely dropped. I went from 49 to 39 in about an hour and half. Looks like it has stabilized in the upper 30s now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Looks like it’s about to get real in Memphis! Heavy ZR moving in now temp 28 Dp 26 yep that’ll do it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 20 minutes ago, Jed33 said: Looks like it’s about to get real in Memphis! Heavy ZR moving in now temp 28 Dp 26 yep that’ll do it! Yeah, rush hour traffic this afternoon will be terrible. Hopefully everyone can get home safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 There is lightening incoming with this next round of precip into west TN. Take a look at these temps. Wind chills in the low teens. This is a fairly significant event. Let's hope the lights stay on... That is as nasty as it gets. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Nashville is reading 32F and Clarksville 27F at this hour w/ heavy precip inbound from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Looks like @John1122's area is now under a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 @1234snow, looks like you all are under a WWA now as well. That is only about 5-7 miles from MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Even MBY is now getting a mention for some freezing precip tonight and tomorrow. Man, it is straight nasty out there right now. From MRX and pay special attention to that big middle paragraph if you live in E TN: National Weather Service Morristown TN 312 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023 Key Message: Light wintry precipitation, especially in the form of freezing rain, is becoming more likely for the northern Plateau and portions of southwest Virginia. Light ice accumulation expected in these areas. Discussion: Currently the gloomy weather is continuing across the area, even though most of the precipitation has diminished or moved east of the Appalachian Mountains. We`ll have a break in precipitation this afternoon before more isentropic rain begins to move in from the west/southwest this evening. With this next round of precipitation coming overnight the temperatures will drop to near or below freezing along the Cumberland Plateau, and parts of NE Tennessee, and SW Virginia. Atmospheric soundings continue to show a moderate warm nose overnight leading to somewhat favorable conditions for light freezing rain in parts of the area. Have remained close to NBM/WPC/HRRR/HREF forecasts with regards to total ice accumulations. Most favorable areas for ice to accumulate will be in the northern Cumberland Plateau over into SW Virginia where the shallow layer of cold air will penetrate the most. Some models and guidance have the cold air making into the eastern TN valley, but local research and historical trends indicate that this shallow layer or near surface cold air really struggles to make it up and over the plateau and local mountains/ridgetops. Forecast soundings seem to indicate this shallow layer of sub-freezing air stops less than 2,000 above the valley surface. Traditionally we need sub freezing temperatures in place already to see decent freezing rain accumulations on the ground. With temperatures currently in the 50/40`s this seems unlikely at this time, but can`t rule out some very light isolated icing on trees and other elevated surfaces in the northern Valley. With that being said, places along and west of the plateau have a much better chance to see accumulations, but based on QPF amounts it it looks likely that amounts hopefully remain less than 0.10" with isolated higher amounts. With that being said, will go with a Winter Weather Advisory for several counties on the Plateau, up into SW Virginia where there is the highest chance to see ice on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Light freezing rain/sleet starting to fall in hardeman County now, it’s cold out there too man. Wind chills are brutal today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just now, AMZ8990 said: Light freezing rain/sleet starting to fall in hardeman County now, it’s cold out there too man. Wind chills are brutal today It looks NASTY! Keep us updated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I saw that forecast discussion Carver and almost commented on it. Yeah, it appears the cold is pressing pretty well. It may get to the valley especially the further NW you are, but if anything it should just make the trees glisten around here, which is still a win in this setup. Meanwhile, I hope everyone in W TN and extreme NW MS gets in safely tonight! It is going downhill fast there I hear. A buddy of mine lives in Southaven and he said it’s pouring sleet there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 The 12k NAM is picking up on frozen precip on Thursday. It has 3-4" of snow in TRI for that timeframe. And that has been on that model for several runs. I just never went to the middle of the run. Sorry to the middle and west folks for posting meager amounts here. I won't hijack the thread w/ E TN stuff. If it gets more realistic, I will just build another thread. This is Thursday night. Incoming RGEM has frozen precip as well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Thanks I missed that. I have wondered all along if that might be possible at the end. The airmass coming down is pretty potent and I may try to squeeze out one last hurrah. I guess we’ll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, Jed33 said: Thanks I missed that. I have wondered all along if that might be possible at the end. The airmass coming down is pretty potent and I may try to squeeze out one last hurrah. I guess we’ll see I noticed how cold it was in Memphis...much colder than modeled for today. They aren't even sniffing 32F during the middle of the day there. So, that tells me that air mass is very cold and very low to the ground likely. I also noticed WWAs were extended to the very eastern edge of the Plateau and just to my north. So, I decided to read the afternoon discos...and low and behold, modeling has trended much colder for the northern valley. The big show is stilll west and middle TN. What is coming in right now is moderate to heavy ZR there. I hope for their sake it is sleet. For our region, we are the very last wave regarding the snow. Though, tonight it could flirt light wintry precip(nuisance stuff here). That last wave is pressing east and south with each passing run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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