Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Time was, a halo around the moon tis time of the year indicated snow on the way. The old folks also used to say if snow hung around on the mountains for a while it was waiting on another one. Well, we met both of those criteria over the past few days. Halo last night: snow yesterday: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 I'll use the ever stingy NWS model blend to kick it off: Looks like some CAD against the Ouachitas and Ozarks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 Here comes the old, oozing south over Nebraska and Iowa: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Honestly think this is going to be a non event but could be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Pretty good model consensus for a light icing event. On some modeling it is worse. Both Nashville and Memphis have good write-ups this morning about it. Trend overnight, as Holston mentioned, is south. Models are feeling that cold air parked over the top. My guess is that at some point it begins trending back north at the last minute - that is normal. Memphis mentioned that ice storm criteria have not been met. However, I would suspect WWAs might be posted if models continue to lock in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Pretty good model consensus for a light icing event. On some modeling it is worse. Both Nashville and Memphis have good write-ups this morning about it. Trend overnight, as Holston mentioned, is south. Models are feeling that cold air parked over the top. My guess is that at some point it begins trending back north at the last minute - that is normal. Memphis mentioned that ice storm criteria have not been met. However, I would suspect WWAs might be posted if models continue to lock in. Good point; however, I think even with the northern last-minute adjustment, the southern net will allow WWA's to be posted along and north of 40 at least for middle TN. I hate saying that b/c it's so cliche but I could see that scenario unfolding. Side note: One of these days, OHX's over-conservative approach is going to bite them. Not saying their latest write-up is wrong at all though I am saying I look forward to their next serving of crow. To the public they take any forecast and make it sound so blah. It's irritating to me. Flash vent over. Carry on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Does anyone have the Memphis AFD link handy by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 Latest Euro: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 18z short range modeling is now very consistent (and still going a tic southward) with several waves of sleet, ice, snow and ZR for middle and west TN. Edit: slight tic northward for the RGEM and NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z short range modeling is now very consistent (and still going a tic southward) with several waves of sleet, ice, snow and ZR for middle and west TN. Edit: slight tic northward for the RGEM and NAM You said a last minute jog North would happen. I bet when it gets even closer there will be hardly any frozen in TN. Maybe very far NW corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: You said a last minute jog North would happen. I bet when it gets even closer there will be hardly any frozen in TN. Maybe very far NW corner. I don't think it will jog that far, but I never say never regarding trends. The 18z GFS is now bullseye for Memphis. Time of day is really important. I think that is why E TN is not involved right now. Even SW VA and NE TN are not out of the woods with later waves. I will be surprised if WWAs, at the very least, are not issued for west TN by tomorrow morning. I don't see an afternoon disco yet for Memphis. So, they may be coordinating w/ other NWS offices right now. The numbers for 18z modeling are fairly stout. It may be there isn't a northward jog at all, but just the northward expanse of the precip shield filling in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: You said a last minute jog North would happen. I bet when it gets even closer there will be hardly any frozen in TN. Maybe very far NW corner. Here is the 18z RGEM compared to 12z. Newest run is on the left... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 FYI. There is a crap ton of sleet north of that ZR line. So, NW TN (light pink) is actually heavy sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 They are flirting with a very fine line.... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 424 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Cloudy conditions will prevail through the evening hours as light rain moves across north Mississippi. Rain should increase overnight ahead of a slow moving cold front. Precipitation will return to the Midsouth Monday night in the form of freezing rain along and north of Interstate 40. Icing potential will continue, reaching as far south as northwest Mississippi Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 307 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023 Rain will move through the region this evening into early Monday. The area will catch a small break Monday before the first chance of icing for the Mid South Monday night into Tuesday. Latest guidance continues to trend slightly cooler for Monday night through Wednesday timeframe. With that being said, the most likely scenario is that there will be two distinct chances for icing over the Mid South through Wednesday. The first of which will be Monday night into Tuesday morning as a subtle wave moves across the region. The best chances for that icing will be along and north of I-40. Ice accumulations less than a tenth of an inch will be possible. Now, with that we will catch a break in the precipitation on Tuesday during the day...and depending on ow far south the initial cold air surges will be important on how far north and how much melting occurs for the first shot of ice. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s area wide and the freezing line will dictate impacts to roads and other infrastructure for the next shot of ice Tuesday night into Wednesday. This chance has the potential to be the bigger threat as heavier precip will move through overnight when temps are at their coldest. Models have trended south some on this possible band of ice in the forecast and would include Memphis metro and possibly into northwest Mississippi. Accumulations Tuesday night into Wednesday could reach up to 0.20 inches of ice. As far as winter weather advisories and warnings are concerned, we will continue to evaluate the situation as the duration and the two distinct shots of ice make this difficult as to not have a watch out for several hours before any impacts. Winter weather advisories will be needed, and there is a non zero chance of a winter storm warning being issued. Stat tuned to the forecast for any changes. The good news is that we should be above freezing on Wednesday and that will allow for melting of any ice to occur. The southern branch upper low will weaken and pass through the Arklamiss region by late Thursday evening, pushing the downstream warm conveyor belt and associated heavier rainfall into Alabama late Thursday night. Milder temperatures should return to the Midsouth by next Saturday, ahead of progressive open upper level trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I don't think it will jog that far, but I never say never regarding trends. The 18z GFS is now bullseye for Memphis. Time of day is really important. I think that is why E TN is not involved right now. Even SW VA and NE TN are not out of the woods with later waves. I will be surprised if WWAs, at the very least, are not issued for west TN by tomorrow morning. I don't see an afternoon disco yet for Memphis. So, they may be coordinating w/ other NWS offices right now. The numbers for 18z modeling are fairly stout. It may be there isn't a northward jog at all, but just the northward expanse of the precip shield filling in. I agree with you, Carver. I don't such a dramatic last-second trend that takes all of middle TN out of the game. Maybe southern middle gets taken out but that's all I can imagine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is the 18z RGEM compared to 12z. Newest run is on the left... I'd say this at this point...the frozen QPF axis is relatively known. It will be interesting to see if any of the models trend juicier overnight... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Yep I will be watching how big the precip waves are correlated with the amount of cold. Sometimes these precip shields can be less or more than advertised. We definitely have a potential winter weather system to track across middle and west Tennessee and other areas in upper east tenn may not be out it on the waves of precip on the back side of this but that is more in doubt right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Here is the 18z RGEM compared to 12z. Newest run is on the left... This puts me in mind of a similar setup in January 1990( similar winter). An Arctic air mass was moving southward pretty much as this one and waves rode the boundary that stalled in our area. freezing rain made it to Lee and Scott County at southern extent. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 With temps around 30 degrees, I don’t think this will be a travel issue for the most part unless it’s mostly at night. Bridges might need to be watched. Power going out would be my only concern. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 The 0z 3k/12k NAM depictions push the ice line southward with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 0z 3k/12k NAM depictions push the ice line southward with each run. Yeah, I noticed that. Pretty substantial difference in places that were already below freezing as well. 3 to 4 degrees colder. Unfortunately, it makes the risk for ice much worse in places like west and middle TN. If it stays at 31-32, it probably won't be too bad. But if creeps into the upper 20s... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Ice storm warnings have been posted for much of west TN, NW MS, NE Arkansas. WWAs all the way to Nashville. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 321 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MSZ001>003-007-008-TNZ003-004- 019>022-048>055-088>090-301800- /O.NEW.KMEG.IS.W.0001.230131T0000Z-230201T1800Z/ Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-St. Francis- Lee AR-Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tunica-Tate-Weakley- Henry-Dyer-Gibson-Carroll-Benton TN-Lauderdale-Tipton-Haywood- Crockett-Madison-Chester-Henderson-Decatur-Shelby-Fayette- Hardeman- Including the cities of Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna, Helena, West Helena, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Tunica, Senatobia, Martin, Dresden, Paris, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Huntingdon, Camden, Ripley TN, Covington, Brownsville, Alamo, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, and Bolivar 321 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Ice accumulations of a quarter to one half an inch. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Partial ice melting may occur Tuesday afternoon before freezing rain returns Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 00Z model guidance consensus trended significantly higher with respect to ice accumulation, following days of relative stability of depicting 0.1 to 0.2 inches of maximum ice accumulations. Model spread remained less than ideal 24 hours out from event onset, with the Canadian ensemble members on the high end, and GFS members on the low side. Overall, the 00z consensus signal is clear for greater than 0.25 inches of ice accumulation. The WPC Super Ensemble mean showed 0.30 inches for Memphis through Wednesday - among the highest amounts depicted for the Midsouth. For reference, Ice Storm Warning criteria is 0.25 inches. The primary reason for the bump in ice accumulations are the downward trend in temperature guidance through Tuesday night. 2 to 3 degrees makes a big difference when temperatures are near freezing. Higher sleet ratios are expected over far northeast AR, the MO bootheel and far northwest TN through Wednesday. This would reduce forecast ice accumulations below Ice Storm Warning criteria. However, if more than 0.5 inches of sleet becomes likely, areas north of the Ice Storm Warning may be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. As mentioned in previous discussions and in the recently issued Ice Storm Warning, partial melting will be possible Tuesday afternoon, which may relieve trees and powerlines from the ice load that accumulated Monday night. Based on forecast surface temperatures, this partial melting would be most likely to occur southeast of a line from West Helena to West Memphis AR, to Covington and Camden, TN. This includes Shelby County, TN. As always, forecasting shallow Arctic air is a challenge. The official forecasted temperatures for Tuesday morning and afternoon follow the NBM, which was colder by 1-2 degrees than the mean of the NBM ensemble members. In other words, the NBM and the official forecast are on the conservative (cold) side of the model guidance envelope for temperatures Monday night and Tuesday. A second round of ice is expected Tuesday evening, as midlevel subtropical moisture continues to stream into our region from Texas. Low level moisture transport will increase above the shallow Arctic air, under the right entrance of a strengthening upper jet core over the Ohio River Valley. Total precipitable water values will reach 1 inch as far north as the TN/MS border Tuesday night. At the surface, Tuesday night temperatures will cool into the upper 20s along the I-40 corridor, and the mid 20s over northeast AR, the MO bootheel and northwest TN. By Wednesday morning, the center of the Arctic surface pressure ridge will move to the upper Ohio River Valley, with near neutral surface pressure and temperature advection over the Midsouth by daybreak. Under building heights aloft, temperatures should slowly warm above freezing Wednesday afternoon over all the Midsouth. As with Tuesday, official temperature forecasts for Wednesday followed the NBM, which remained a 1-2 degrees cooler than NBM ensemble mean. Rain will continue Wednesday night, with some threat of a changeover to light freezing rain over far northeast AR and the MO bootheel. At this time, QPF and temperature trends suggest less than 0.10 inches of ice, before temps warm well above freezing on Thursday. This may need to be addressed in a future Winter Weather advisory. A welcome change will arrive Friday and Saturday, as shortwave ridging aloft brings sunshine, and mild temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 If this comes to fruition, this is a coup for the Canadian RGEM and CMC. They had this from the word "go," and never budged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: If this comes to fruition, this is a coup for the Canadian RGEM and CMC. They had this from the word "go," and never budged. Yep. RGEM has been pretty darn good this year. If not always perfect at least consistent. It's at range but it favors the ice to continue with the next wave Thursday. Not much else does right now, so it will be interesting to see how that evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Yep. RGEM has been pretty darn good this year. If not always perfect at least consistent. It's at range but it favors the ice to continue with the next wave Thursday. Not much else does right now, so it will be interesting to see how that evolves. Very definition of an over-running event if it lasts that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 It is fairly amazing to see the GFS bend completely to the CMC on this ice storm. I think most assumed(me included) that the CMC had overdone the boundary, and maybe will once it verifies. But that is pretty solid and tight cone for the ice even this week. This should be a 48-72 hour overrunning event. Modeling has done a really good job up to this point with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 12z modeling has decently upped the ZR totals for middle and west TN. The 12z RGEM now has the event lasting into Friday. The 3k NAM has some very light amounts creeping into NE TN and SW VA on this run. So message at 12z so far....increasing totals for the 72 hour time frame. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
footballknox Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 What prevents the cold air from coming in East TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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