February 2023 General Discussion

[IWXwx]

7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think most people here do have some standards for how winter should be, though the standards aren't in the same league as yours.  And when standards aren't met, it's more like "oh well, better luck next year" instead of being as emotionally invested as you are.

imo, it's just not worth getting so invested in something that you can't control.  Unless you're making your own snow, you can't control how much snow there is in your backyard.  And even then, what about everywhere else around you?

Having high standards isn't a bad thing.  I do.  I just reserve that for things that I can control.  For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself.  

"For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself."

I never worked out in my adult life, but had physically demanding jobs which helped keep me in shape. However, after getting a desk job with Emergency Management a few years ago, I kind of let myself go. So a little over a year ago, I began lifting and doing cardio. As I just turned 65, I now feel better than I did since I was in my 30's, and that even includes a couple of months last year where I battled cancer with chemo and radiation.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to our I-69 semi-tipping winds this afternoon.

[Chambana]

Hit 56 two hours ago, since then temps have “crashed” to 50. Mid 50s in the grid once again next week. 5” on the season with roughly 96 hours of snowcover, this winter is toast. Nothing can salvage it now. 

[hardypalmguy]

11 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Touche, and fair enough - I probably picked a bad example. 

But it sucks when it's sunny and in the 40s in Feb.  Why is that controversial?  And, either way, who cares how MSP is doing vs. their climo; it only matters how they're doing in an absolute sense vs. what winter should be like.  Miami had a great winter vs. climo in 1976-77, with all of the oranges destroyed and temps in the 20s with snow flurries on one day. Does that mean they had a good winter?  Of course not.

And, please everyone - don't put words in my mouth.  I've never demanded Siberia or interior Alaska, or even the Keewenaw.  It's very simple - on Feb 8th, it should be cold with snow cover and frozen lakes.  End of story.  Is that really a "next level" request?  Are we not allowed to want it to be winter in DJF?  I'm tired of having to depend on events, as opposed to being able to rely on the calendar.  Sure, good winters can have more events than bad winters...but all that really means is there's either 20" of snow cover and 20" ice depth on Feb 8th in a good winter, vs. 6"/6" in a bad winter.  The season looks like the season should, no matter what the winter-to-winter variability is.

It's exhausting to accept everyone's low standards...like we're psychologically convincing ourselves that everything is ok, when it's not.  It's easy to be content when standards are low - a good metaphor for life.  

Look at the F-6 for Minocqua this winter so far.  46N in the great state of Wisconsin.  It's been a sub-par winter for their standards...and it's a neighboring state, and not very far away...yet it has looked and felt like winter since 12/1.  Most days have highs 15-35 and lows -5 to 15.  Nothing crazy - just consistent winter.  And, again, this is a bad winter for them!  A bad winter vs. climo there is a great winter vs. climo here - it sucks.

My standards for summer are 85-95 every day and dewpoints around 70.  But every summer, a cold front comes through (even in July) and I get to suffer through days in the 60s with a dry NE wind off the lake.  So I guess my standards for summer are like yours for winter in reverse?

Oh and climo says I should be in the 80s all of July.  60s should never happen, right?

[hardypalmguy]

8 hours ago, frostfern said:

I get the same way here in the summer when the thunderstorm shield happens and the flowers die and the vegetation starts getting brown.

I actually don't mind droughts as long as it's hot in summer.  My garden hose keeps my tropicals happy.

[sbnwx85]

52 and full sun. Absolutely gorgeous weather in February. Wind hasn’t kicked in yet. I might plant a palm tree today.

[frostfern]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

I actually don't mind droughts as long as it's hot in summer.  My garden hose keeps my tropicals happy.

Give me hot and stormy.  I like my Florida weather.  Cool and dry is the worst.

I still need 4 distinct seasons though.  Just not boring.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Anything above 78 is too warm for me in the summer. Try working outside, I’ll take 0 degrees over 90 anyday.

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think most people here do have some standards for how winter should be, though the standards aren't in the same league as yours.  And when standards aren't met, it's more like "oh well, better luck next year" instead of being as emotionally invested as you are.

imo, it's just not worth getting so invested in something that you can't control.  Unless you're making your own snow, you can't control how much snow there is in your backyard.  And even then, what about everywhere else around you?

Having high standards isn't a bad thing.  I do.  I just reserve that for things that I can control.  For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself.  

This. Times a million. I grew up in southeast Michigan so my standards are set on southeast Michigan Winters. You grow up getting interested in the weather when all you know is the weather that you experience. So to place such unrealistic standards on what's acceptable and what's not just seems weird to me. You will never ever be happy. Ill never forget when beavis called the winter of 2013-14 "decent" but had a whole list of complaints about it. 

I love snow probably more than Beavis. Some winters meet our expectations, some exceed them, and some fall short. Obviously this Winter is falling short. That's when you have to make the most of what you get. I was out multiple times the past several weeks enjoying the Winter wonderland instead of staring at my computer screen showing an impending warmup.

[hardypalmguy]

Get the baby powder and sunscreen out.  Gonna be roasting next week.

[CheeselandSkies]

Next time I go to my parent's house I'll have to dig up the tape (and a working VHS VCR to play it into my computer capture card), I know I have some home video from late February 2002 (I'd just turned 16 at the time) when it got up to around, perhaps over 60 degrees in southern Wisconsin. As I recall, we went into it with a solid snowpack on the ground, so in the video you can hear what sounds like a waterfall from all the rapidly melting snow as I zoom in on our garden thermometer.

[beavis1729]

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think most people here do have some standards for how winter should be, though the standards aren't in the same league as yours.  And when standards aren't met, it's more like "oh well, better luck next year" instead of being as emotionally invested as you are.

imo, it's just not worth getting so invested in something that you can't control.  Unless you're making your own snow, you can't control how much snow there is in your backyard.  And even then, what about everywhere else around you?

Having high standards isn't a bad thing.  I do.  I just reserve that for things that I can control.  For example, I love lifting weights.  There are many mental and physical health benefits that not only serve me well now as I close in on 40, but will hopefully pay off all the way through old age.  I love the journey.  I love trying to get better.  Perfect linear progress doesn't happen forever, but you put the work in to be the best version of yourself.  

I can relate to that - and I'm 48, not getting any younger.  Thankfully I have a stable job and am in fairly good health, so I have the luxury of caring about first-world problems.  I guess when you love something a lot, you get emotionally invested.  Probably not the smartest or most logical thing to do - but a lot of my job is logical and analytical, so I need an outlet for the emotional side.  

At ORD - for the period 12/1/22 to 2/15/23 (based on this week’s forecast), only 38% of these days will have a high temp colder than 35F.  That is ridiculous.  How can it be winter unless at least 80% of these days…and ideally more…are colder than 35F.  It's hard to be ok with this.  Even if it were as low as 70%, that would be understandable (yet still disappointing)…but 38% is unacceptable.  It illustrates my main point throughout all of this - south of 45N, we’re shockingly far away from winter should be – it’s laughable and frustrating to no end.  Not even close.

It would be great if it wasn't ever above freezing in January, and if it never rains during DJF.  If these things occur rarely, that’s fine…despite my wishes.  In that case, it's ok to reduce standards a bit, and be somewhat realistic.  But at some point, it becomes blatant grade inflation and unacceptable.  Let’s just reduce our standards so far that winter only needs to be colder than fall.  Hooray – we win!!  It sucks - and I hate pretending it's ok, because then it feels like an admission that I've given up on Mother Nature and the hope & beauty of winter.

Am I a weenie for thinking it shouldn’t rain more than a day or two during the winter?  If so, guilty as charged…but to me, that’s a perfectly reasonable wish.  I’m not suggesting we need to see 200” of snow every season with blizzards and brutal cold day after day.  But it sucks to see puddles during winter – it’s not natural.

Even though the 2022-23 winter has definitely been Exhibit A of crap, this general theme has essentially been true for the past 8 winters.  It eats at you when it's long-lasting.  Sure, we’ve seen some “wintry periods” during these years…but that’s not what the winter season is supposed to represent.  Yes, the good periods are great, and they are welcome and appreciated…but the rest of the time winter seems to go MIA.  It can’t be all or nothing from week to week.  

On August 8th, no one is worried about the EPO, PDO, AMO, ENSO state, etc.  99 out of 100 times, you know it will be warm on August 8th.  Yes, there could be the fluke Pinatubo summer, or an occasional rain-cooled day (which will still be humid)…but no one thinks about the million things that need to go right.  This is how winter should be too – it’s only 3 months out of the year.  Let it be sacred.  It’s understandable for November and March/April to be up and down – but not DJF.  But that adds another problem - because DJF have been so bad recently, there’s a huge need to make up for it in November, March, and April.  It shouldn’t need to be this way – but what else are you going to do?

Assuming we love winter (which is mainly why we’re here in the first place?), I think we have every right to complain and be sad about what is going on.  Then, add that the NWS or the public doesn’t care about our crappy winters – it’s just insult to injury.  I hate seeing AFDs which say “thankfully, the cold temps will be short-lived”.  Boo fooking hoo – it’s cold during the winter.  Not that the NWS (or the public) should be expected to care…but since they don’t, we need to take up the cause here.  There’s nowhere else to vent.  The irony is that, in northern WI, it’s the reverse.  The public actually gets very upset when winter isn’t occurring, just like me.  Amazing – they enjoy winter and being outside to experience it!  That’s another topic entirely...
 

[Chicago Storm]

18 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

And, either way, who cares how MSP is doing vs. their climo; it only matters how they're doing in an absolute sense vs. what winter should be like. 

 

3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Am I a weenie for thinking it shouldn’t rain more than a day or two during the winter?  If so, guilty as charged…but to me, that’s a perfectly reasonable wish. But it sucks to see puddles during winter – it’s not natural.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

At what point do these rants just become copypasta? 

[michsnowfreak]

Here's a fun stat, and this will cover beavis' entire life.

In the past 25 winters, 13 of the 25 saw double digit snow depth at Chicago. In the previous 25 winters before that, just 7 of the 25 saw double digit depths.

 

 

[WestMichigan]

Since Beavis brought up puddles, I had 1.14" of rain today.

[hardypalmguy]

Since Beavis brought up puddles, I had 1.14" of rain today.

Spring bulbs approve.

[michsnowfreak]

37 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Since Beavis brought up puddles, I had 1.14" of rain today.

0.76" here. We briefly shot up to 55° before falling back down. I have just one snow pile left on the side of the driveway.

[Hoosier]

Chicago recorded 0.0" of snow in the first 8 days of February for the first time since 1998 (some years since then have produced a T in the first 8 days of February).  

February 1998 ended up finishing with 0.0" of snow.  Pretty astonishing.  I don't think we'll do that this time.

[Chicago Storm]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago recorded 0.0" of snow in the first 8 days of February for the first time since 1998 (some years since then have produced a T in the first 8 days of February).  

February 1998 ended up finishing with 0.0" of snow.  Pretty astonishing.  I don't think we'll do that this time.

We'll make it to mid-month with only a T at least.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

We'll make it to mid-month with only a T at least.

For sure.  I actually looked ahead at that and there's been about 10 other occurrences of 0.0" or a T from 2/1 through 2/14.  It last happened in 2017.

[Hoosier]

More stats for Chicago...

With 14.2" on the season and no snow in the forecast, it is a virtual guarantee that Chicago will still be under 15" on the season when we reach the halfway point of this month.

There have been 22 years where Chicago has been under 15" as of February 14, but it has only happened twice in the past 60 years (1963-64 and 2012-13).  All 22 years finished with below average snowfall, with most being well below average.  1963-64 rallied to darn near average though with 35.2".  Also had a very large rally in 1937-38 to finish at 34.8"

[cyclone77]

Unless something better comes along in the next month or so, the 3.2" that fell back in the late January event will be the best event of the season.  We'll see what happens but this has the possibility of being the wussiest winter I've seen in my 46 years.

  

[Spartman]

000
SXUS71 KILN 091923
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
224 PM EST THU FEB 9 2023

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH 
TODAY.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 2001.

Meanwhile in Columbus, the first 70-degree day of the year:
 

000
SXUS71 KILN 092155
RERCMH

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EST THU FEB 9 2023

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBUS OHIO...

A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE JOHN 
GLENN COLUMBUS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY FEBRUARY 9TH AT 406 PM 
EST.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 66 SET IN 2001.

That, my friends, is how we do the torch.

[Baum]

5 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Unless something better comes along in the next month or so, the 3.2" that fell back in the late January event will be the best event of the season.  We'll see what happens but this has the possibility of being the wussiest winter I've seen in my 46 years.

  

you always have May.

[Baum]

4 hours ago, Spartman said:

000
SXUS71 KILN 091923
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
224 PM EST THU FEB 9 2023

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH 
TODAY.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 2001.

Meanwhile in Columbus, the first 70-degree day of the year:
 

000
SXUS71 KILN 092155
RERCMH

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EST THU FEB 9 2023

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBUS OHIO...

A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE JOHN 
GLENN COLUMBUS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY FEBRUARY 9TH AT 406 PM 
EST.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 66 SET IN 2001.

That, my friends, is how we do the torch.

id take that in a minute right now.

[A-L-E-K]

jelly

[SchaumburgStormer]

6 hours ago, Spartman said:

000
SXUS71 KILN 091923
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
224 PM EST THU FEB 9 2023

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 67 DEGREES WAS SET AT DAYTON OH 
TODAY.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 2001.

Meanwhile in Columbus, the first 70-degree day of the year:
 

000
SXUS71 KILN 092155
RERCMH

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EST THU FEB 9 2023

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBUS OHIO...

A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE JOHN 
GLENN COLUMBUS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY FEBRUARY 9TH AT 406 PM 
EST.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR TODAY WAS 66 SET IN 2001.

That, my friends, is how we do the torch.

Awesome. F this winter, I am ready to play some golf. 

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

More stats for Chicago...

With 14.2" on the season and no snow in the forecast, it is a virtual guarantee that Chicago will still be under 15" on the season when we reach the halfway point of this month.

There have been 22 years where Chicago has been under 15" as of February 14, but it has only happened twice in the past 60 years (1963-64 and 2012-13).  All 22 years finished with below average snowfall, with most being well below average.  1963-64 rallied to darn near average though with 35.2".  Also had a very large rally in 1937-38 to finish at 34.8"

With Detroit being at 19.3", even though it's only 5 more inches than Chicago, it really makes a difference in that there's a lot of years that we're at that point or lower by mid February. So it's not even worth looking up those stats for Detroit. However I did double check the Chicago stats just to see what years they were and I actually came up with 24 years not 22, And 3 years in the past 60 (you forgot 1997-98).

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Low of 9 this morning. Not much else going on here, just a slow melt. 

[Hoosier]

54 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

With Detroit being at 19.3", even though it's only 5 more inches than Chicago, it really makes a difference in that there's a lot of years that we're at that point or lower by mid February. So it's not even worth looking up those stats for Detroit. However I did double check the Chicago stats just to see what years they were and I actually came up with 24 years not 22, And 3 years in the past 60 (you forgot 1997-98).

Chicago has some missing snowfall data on the usual websites like xmacis (mainly in the late 1890s and part of the 1990s).  However, there's another site that I use to fill in those gaps where I can get a very good idea of daily snowfall amounts.  

Your 2 extra years are 1896-97 and 1997-98, both of which have a lot of missing data on xmacis.  But I can tell you that both were over 15" by 2/14, which is why I left them off the list.