February 2023 General Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

Peak wind gust of 55MPH at ORD, with the high winds last evening through this morning.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Frozen melt water channel from yesterdays rain. My 50 square foot driveway is so icy I had to put my vehicle in 4wd to avoid sliding into the neighbors garage leaving for work this morning. 

[frostfern]

60 mph wind gust woke me up in early morning hours.  House shook and I heard some branches hitting the roof.  I was not expecting that.

[RogueWaves]

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes Feb has killed it. In 2021 we had 11" of snow on Feb 15-16 over a 5" base. In 2018 we had a 9" snow Feb 10 over a 6" base. But 2014 would be the last time we had deep snows over an already double digit base. 

Fun fact. The Winter with the most double digit inch snow depth days? 2013-14 by a mile. 2nd place? 2014-15. Sorry not sorry 1970s lol.

I don't think there was an I-94 focused winter during the 70's like we had this century. As said, the jack-zone against averages seems to have been a couple counties north where I was. As for double-digit snow cover days, for Marshall it goes like this: #1: 1981-82, #2: 1903-04, #3: 2013-14

[madwx]

Got down to 6 at the house. Saw as low as 3 on the drive in to work.  
 

This will be the first big test of sun angle season. Wall to wall sunshine vs mid 20s high temps. Will it melt the 1” of snow that drifted onto my driveway

[Torchageddon]

Forecast to get 4.5", got 1" of fluff instead lol. Getting some sun breaks but presently snowing good. Highway 402 is getting crushed by a north band similar to that epic LES in Dec 2010.

[madwx]

8 hours ago, madwx said:

Got down to 6 at the house. Saw as low as 3 on the drive in to work.  
 

This will be the first big test of sun angle season. Wall to wall sunshine vs mid 20s high temps. Will it melt the 1” of snow that drifted onto my driveway

Didn’t stand a chance

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, madwx said:

Didn’t stand a chance

My driveway looks just like that.  No snow and almost completely dry. Had a couple inches on it this morning and temps were in the 20s all day.

[cyclone77]

After yesterday's snow, Dubuque has 20.9" more snow this season than MLI.  Pretty stark contrast between the northern DVN cwa and the central portion. 

[Spartman]

First day of any measurable snowfall since January 30th with 0.1" of snow. Now we're tied for least snowiest February with 1935.

[CheeselandSkies]

4 hours ago, madwx said:

Didn’t stand a chance

[Chambana]

Next 8 days high temps 57,54,50,64,61,33,45,52 the remarkably mild winter continues here. Not a flake in sight. 

[bowtie`]

Another nice day with CAVU. A touch breezy though. I think the highest I saw at KIND was 27G38. Enough to make the flags and bunting stand straight out.

 

[Spartman]

Still in the 40s. With a stalled warm sector, we may very well see today's highs in the 60s as a nighttime high.

[Hoosier]

One of the ugliest wx days I can remember in a while.  Stuck at 34-35 degrees all afternoon with mod-hvy rain.  I'd take heavy snow in April over this any day.  Today is just nasty with no redeeming value since it's too warm for ice.

[King James]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One of the ugliest wx days I can remember in a while.  Stuck at 34-35 degrees all afternoon with mod-hvy rain.  I'd take heavy snow in April over this any day.  Today is just nasty with no redeeming value since it's too warm for ice.

Just had a nice flash of lightning followed by a decent rumble. Usually stuff flying NE from me ends up your way. Spring isn’t far away brother and soon we jump ahead on the clocks. Home stretch 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One of the ugliest wx days I can remember in a while.  Stuck at 34-35 degrees all afternoon with mod-hvy rain.  I'd take heavy snow in April over this any day.  Today is just nasty with no redeeming value since it's too warm for ice.

We had that last week, 0.87” of rain and never got warmer then 37. Just the worst. 

[Hoosier]

Alluded to this in the storm thread, but figured I'd bring it over here for more detail.

While the storm of 2/22/2023 will largely be forgettable for Chicago, this calendar day managed to pull off a combination that is quite uncommon. 

1) have a high in the 30s

2) have 1"+ of precip

3) have less than 1" of snow

 

The above combination has now happened only 14 times since 1884-85 (the first year that snow records are available), so it's about a 1 in 10 year occurrence over the long haul. 

For some comparison to a different season, Chicago has officially hit 100 or higher a total of 65 times.  That is over 4 times as much as what occurred today.  Of course it's not exactly apples to apples -- you either hit 100 or you don't, and that's that -- while this requires all 3 conditions of highs in the 30s, 1" precip, less than 1" of snow to be met.  But you get the idea.

Here is the list of all calendar days with highs in the 30s, 1"+ precip, and less than 1" of snow in Chicago.  All of these would've largely been a cold rain or some combination of rain and freezing rain.  Snow amounts for each date are listed last.  Everything else is self explanatory.

 

11/10/1898:  36/33, 1.20", 0

4/16/1921:  36/31, 1.97", 0.1"

11/29/1930:  38/18, 1.19", 0.1"

3/12/1939:  35/31, 1.10", T

2/6/1942:  35/35, 1.98", T

4/19/1947:  39/36, 1.40", 0

1/18/1949:  35/17, 1.11", 0.2"

3/26/1959:  39/35, 1.40", 0

12/11/1983:  38/33, 1.03", 0

12/27/1988:  39/15, 1.03",  0.1"

4/4/2003:  39/32, 1.22", 0

2/16/2006:  37/22, 1.09", T

3/24/2016:  39/30, 1.09", T

2/22/2023:  36/33, 1.20", 0

 

[Hoosier]

Assuming the strength of the low for early next week holds up, should get a decent wind event in the sub.  And it's coming in strong, not a late bomber pulling into Canada, which will get the typically less prone southern sub into the game for high winds.

[Torchageddon]

Hilariously bad algorithm, the temp is off by 5C (its still -5.5C not -2C like it showed this morning) and nothing on radar anywhere to give me freezing drizzle unless it just generates in place. I see nothing of the sort on current radar. 60% POP? lol.

[hardypalmguy]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Alluded to this in the storm thread, but figured I'd bring it over here for more detail.

While the storm of 2/22/2023 will largely be forgettable for Chicago, this calendar day managed to pull off a combination that is quite uncommon. 

1) have a high in the 30s

2) have 1"+ of precip

3) have less than 1" of snow

 

The above combination has now happened only 14 times since 1884-85 (the first year that snow records are available), so it's about a 1 in 10 year occurrence over the long haul. 

For some comparison to a different season, Chicago has officially hit 100 or higher a total of 65 times.  That is over 4 times as much as what occurred today.  Of course it's not exactly apples to apples -- you either hit 100 or you don't, and that's that -- while this requires all 3 conditions of highs in the 30s, 1" precip, less than 1" of snow to be met.  But you get the idea.

Here is the list of all calendar days with highs in the 30s, 1"+ precip, and less than 1" of snow in Chicago.  All of these would've largely been a cold rain or some combination of rain and freezing rain.  Snow amounts for each date are listed last.  Everything else is self explanatory.

 

11/10/1898:  36/33, 1.20", 0

4/16/1921:  36/31, 1.97", 0.1"

11/29/1930:  38/18, 1.19", 0.1"

3/12/1939:  35/31, 1.10", T

2/6/1942:  35/35, 1.98", T

4/19/1947:  39/36, 1.40", 0

1/18/1949:  35/17, 1.11", 0.2"

3/26/1959:  39/35, 1.40", 0

12/11/1983:  38/33, 1.03", 0

12/27/1988:  39/15, 1.03",  0.1"

4/4/2003:  39/32, 1.22", 0

2/16/2006:  37/22, 1.09", T

3/24/2016:  39/30, 1.09", T

2/22/2023:  36/33, 1.20", 0

 

2/16/2006 I would say is a near mirror of what we had yesterday. 

[sbnwx85]

If we can avoid any snow accumulation the rest of the month, which seems likely, this will go down as the 2nd least snowy February on record in South Bend. We've had 0.3" of snow so far. The record is a Trace in 1998.

[Hoosier]

42 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

If we can avoid any snow accumulation the rest of the month, which seems likely, this will go down as the 2nd least snowy February on record in South Bend. We've had 0.3" of snow so far. The record is a Trace in 1998.

March 1998 had a little something.  One of my favorite 2nd tier type storms because of the surprise factor.

[Hoosier]

I wonder what the long range HRRR/RAP will come up with for the Monday system.  Maybe a 968 mb low rolling into Iowa?

Was thinking about it and I personally can't recall seeing a sub 980 mb pressure here.  That tends to happen on the east coast, to the north of here, or out in the Plains.  Do recall low 980s a few times, which is what the models currently suggest for mby.

[cyclone77]

54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wonder what the long range HRRR/RAP will come up with for the Monday system.  Maybe a 968 mb low rolling into Iowa?

Was thinking about it and I personally can't recall seeing a sub 980 mb pressure here.  That tends to happen on the east coast, to the north of here, or out in the Plains.  Do recall low 980s a few times, which is what the models currently suggest for mby.

Dec 87 blizzard had a 979mb low near Kankakee and up towards your area IIRC.

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Dec 87 blizzard had a 979mb low near Kankakee and up towards your area IIRC.

I thought that one didn't get to 980 mb (or just below) until reaching the lake.  Sort of splitting hairs I guess.  Anyway, I was a very young kid at the time and have no memory of that storm.

[Natester]

One thing I noticed for Monday is that on the 18z ICON temps are below freezing for a good chunk of NE Iowa, making a huge swath of freezing rain.  All other models have Iowa well above freezing for Sunday night/Monday.

EDIT: 0z ICON shows all of Iowa well above freezing for late Sunday night into Monday.

[Hoosier]

Most of the February low pressure records around the progged path of the early week system are from February 1902.  Generally, they are low-mid 970s.  There was a powerhouse system at the end of that month and into March.  I remember reading an amusing account that some guy in Indiana thought his barometer broke because he had never seen such a low pressure before. 

 

[Natester]

Last time a storm system that was below 980 milibars traveled through Iowa was on March 1, 2007 where the low deepened to 978 milibars just outside of Vinton.  Winds were strong but not damaging.  Same day as the blizzard in western Iowa and the Enterprise, AL EF4 tornado.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

If we can avoid any snow accumulation the rest of the month, which seems likely, this will go down as the 2nd least snowy February on record in South Bend. We've had 0.3" of snow so far. The record is a Trace in 1998.

Detroit has only had 0.5" which also would be 2nd least snowy Feb if it holds. It's absolutely the other shoe dropping after an incredible run. 9 of the top 14 snowiest Febs have come since 2008 (records date to 1880)! The month does seem a little wintrier than that since the first week was blanketed in snow and we had the big ice storm.