Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Euro backs Ukie for Monday-Tuesday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Yup. Sne skunked while Hudson valley gets smoked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Euro backs Ukie for Monday-Tuesday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Of course a Kuchera map would show less than this map, but at least the Euro keeps hope alive that we can see a little snow-sleet accumulation. I still don't like the setup and lean towards no accumulation, but it's a close call and we have a chance to see a little something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Of course a Kuchera map would show less than this map, but at least the Euro keeps hope alive that we can see a little snow-sleet accumulation. I still don't like the setup, but it's a close call and we have a chance to see a little something. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Not bad at all temp wise during heaviest precip. Of course it's just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I loved how we stayed below freezing even here on the south shore and JFK I was actually on north shore of LI for that storm at school at Stony Brook. It was all sleet I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: I was actually on north shore of LI for that storm at school at Stony Brook. It was all sleet I think. like 4 inches of snow here then sleet then a capper of freezing rain at the end. St Paddy's Day 2007 was all sleet my door was stuck I could not open it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12Z Euro severely weakens the primary and develops a secondary quickly off the NJ coast. Thats what we would need to see a more wintry solution. warmer water temps would actually help here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: like 4 inches of snow here then sleet then a capper of freezing rain at the end. St Paddy's Day 2007 was all sleet my door was stuck I could not open it lol Ok yea i remember there were two similar storms that winter so they kind of blur together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 29 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Wasn't that more of a coastal hugger? That was all sleet. Nothing to write home about. But even that winter was better than this one. It's not even been cold enough to sleet much. Saw something about ESE winds. That's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That was all sleet. Nothing to write home about. But even that winter was better than this one. It's not even been cold enough to sleet much. Saw something about ESE winds. That's rain. Yea the lack of cold air is definitely a concern here. I certainly don't feel confident in wintry precip but could also see it happening if everything aligns well. At least this storm is trackable inside of 96 hours for the immediate metro area which I can't remember any other storms being this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That was all sleet. Nothing to write home about. But even that winter was better than this one. It's not even been cold enough to sleet much. Saw something about ESE winds. That's rain. We had like 2-4 inches of sleet here in middlesex county. Very impressive imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 37 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Sne skunked while Hudson valley gets smoked Not out of the question with system deamplifying quickly as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I think best bet for NYC area is a quick hit from 7pm to midnight if temps can cool with heavy WWA precip as UKIE and Euro show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not out of the question with system deamplifying quickly as it moves east Yea I noticed that, is that because of the confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, mikem81 said: I think best bet for NYC area is a quick hit from 7pm to midnight if temps can cool with heavy WWA precip as UKIE and Euro show Not saying this is anything close but remember November 2018? Can definitely dump in a short amount of time with the right setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Maybe North of HPN up to putnam/ dutches can get a few inches of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Maybe North of HPN up to putnam/ dutches can get a few inches of cement. Probably will be a fairly sharp gradient but unclear where that will set up yet. Anywhere from just south of the city to I84 is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Eps snow 3-4 for nyc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Eps mean for Monday night definitely followed the op with weaker primary and further south secondary 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Wow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said: Euro backs Ukie for Monday-Tuesday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= The Keep Hope Alive run here on the north shore. I’d need to see more runs do the same but the fast decaying primary is really the only way NYC has a prayer with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: The Keep Hope Alive run here on the north shore. I’d need to see more runs do the same but the fast decaying primary is really the only way NYC has a prayer with this one. It's been happening more an more. Get that block into position. Get this thing off the south jersey coast an let it get fuel from the warm atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It's been happening more a more. Get that block into position. Get this thing off the south jersey coast an let it get fuel from the warm atlantic Maybe the blocking/confluence can stay a little more stout and we don’t have as strong a S/W riding into it and it shears out a little. I still rate this as unlikely but having a prayer vs totally screwed is a positive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 Nam poof for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam poof for tomorrow 2-5 for acy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Nam poof for tomorrow Yeah it shifted well south. It gives 2 to 3 inches for southern NJ and nothing for us, lol. That would be fitting for this miserable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: Yeah it shifted well south. It gives 2 to 3 inches for southern NJ and nothing for us, lol. That would be fitting for this miserable winter. I was always less interested in tomorrow than Mon. I think tomorrow is half inch at best, maybe a bit more for extreme southern parts of the subforum but the NAM as we continue to see is terrible and flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah it shifted well south. It gives 2 to 3 inches for southern NJ and nothing for us, lol. That would be fitting for this miserable winter. 3k is the same with the split around nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Very interested in seeing what RGEM shows for Monday. I don’t trust the Ukie at all or the gfs at all so if the RGEM looks anything like euro I’d feel more optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I think NAM likely way overdone but ACY getting over an inch before NYC does this winter would really stink. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 might be a sign the next storm shifts south too which would be good for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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