jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The lastest 3.04 scenario on the models was expecting given the trough has not lessened in the west as of yet. Our window starts 3.10. CAN we thread the needle before then? Sure, however temps will be an issue and the SER can connect to the NAO causing "cutters" or "runners". That being said, I think we have serious potential starting 3.10. When any improvement gets to within day 5 I’ll start to care. I’m done with the 8-10 day model hallucinations. I’m sure any “improvement” will come just in time to drive back door fronts in for spring though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 38 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs very meh. Looks like it pounds Boston with 12+ next week. The difference in snowfall between Boston and nyc will be huge by mid March That makes sense Hopefully we start cashing in by then We are much more like the midatlantic than we are like Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs very meh. Looks like it pounds Boston with 12+ next week. The difference in snowfall between Boston and nyc will be huge by mid March As expected and has been clear for the last 2-3 days. Boston has many ways they can get a good total, maybe 10”+ from an evolution like this where we just cold rain. SWFEs absolutely suck outside the diamond in the rough every few years. Very Nina climo as well and we need that to end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: When any improvement gets to within day 5 I’ll start to care. I’m done with the 8-10 day model hallucinations. I’m sure any “improvement” will come just in time to drive back door fronts in for spring though. True you never know, however I have seen this la Nina March snowfall movie play out a few times before. So I have more faith than January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GEPS and GEFS are both improved at 12Z for next weekend's storm, significantly so for the GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 50 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Look at soundings before any clown snow map outputs. I haven’t for this run but for me if the primary low is driving up west of Buffalo it tells me all I need to know for what I should expect. The 12z RGEM has precip starting in nyc while the low is still over Western Great Lakes region. That’s actually probably better than if it started when the low was closer to Buffalo. We don’t know if it’s right with early onset precip but that’s what you need for frozen precip with a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: As expected and has been clear for the last 2-3 days. Boston has many ways they can get a good total, maybe 10”+ from an evolution like this where we just cold rain. SWFEs absolutely suck outside the diamond in the rough every few years. Very Nina climo as well and we need that to end. I check in here every morning for curiosity but really, this winter is a dud and nothing will change it. I fully expect this to be much ado about nothing . Worst winter ever for winter weather fans in this region. FWIW, I read an article that MN is having warmer temps and more snow, as are the Sierra Nevadas. Experts said this may actually be a bad sign and that even they are getting close to a tipping point; we may have reached ours, and perhaps our snowy winters in the 2000's were due to something similar. Unlike some ( not here of course ) others, I frankly admit I don't get the science and rely on more knowledgeable folks to opine, but this is something I read and it was not in some rag and the experts quoted seemed to be serious people. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: The 12z RGEM has precip starting in nyc while the low is still over Western Great Lakes region. That’s actually probably better than if it started when the low was closer to Buffalo. We don’t know if it’s right with early onset precip but that’s what you need for frozen precip with a cutter. With SWFEs precip usually starts sooner than expected but since there’s a good amount of confluence, the precip might get eaten up by dry air for a while. We probably get the vast majority of what we’ll get within 6 hours or so because there’s a huge dry slot that will come in on Tue AM. But we won’t wet bulb down to 32, we have an onshore strengthening wind and these always have the nasty mid level warm layer, so most likely it’s sleet then to rain within an hour in the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: With SWFEs precip usually starts sooner than expected but since there’s a good amount of confluence, the precip might get eaten up by dry air for a while. We probably get the vast majority of what we’ll get within 6 hours or so because there’s a huge dry slot that will come in on Tue AM. But we won’t wet bulb down to 32, we have an onshore strengthening wind and these always have the nasty mid level warm layer, so most likely it’s sleet then to rain within an hour in the city. The immediate city provably true but I’m still not ruling out 1+ inch NW and NE suburbs and maybe even north shore LI. We’ll see. As always depends if it comes in disorganized or like a wall. A wall can dump an inch even if it flips to rain in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I check in here every morning for curiosity but really, this winter is a dud and nothing will change it. I fully expect this to be much ado about nothing . Worst winter ever for winter weather fans in this region. FWIW, I read an article that MN is having warmer temps and more snow, as are the Sierra Nevadas. Experts said this may actually be a bad sign and that even they are getting close to a tipping point; we may have reached ours, and perhaps our snowy winters in the 2000's were due to something similar. Unlike some ( not here of course ) others, I frankly admit I don't get the science and rely on more knowledgeable folks to opine, but this is something I read and it was not in some rag and the experts quoted seemed to be serious people. We’ll have snowy winters again here. We just need this constant perma-Nina to end. We were also overdue for duds after the bonanzas over the last 20 years. Averages and climo always reassert themselves and we balance out. As has been mentioned many times we don’t live in Boston so we can’t expect their climo, even though if anything they’re more overdue than us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The immediate city provably true but I’m still not ruling out 1+ inch NW and NE suburbs and maybe even north shore LI. We’ll see. As always depends if it comes in disorganized or like a wall. A wall can dump an inch even if it flips to rain in an hour. Maybe. We’ll see what happens and what we can wet bulb down to. It could definitely be a sleet fest for many if we’re just a degree or two colder. Soundings do support frozen to start especially if it goes heavy quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Some quick statistics: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: wow I remember both the record highs and record lows well ps Tony please check that -4 low at NYC from 1983, that can't be right lol 2015 was the coldest I've ever seen it this late. and this: How did this thing miss us?! 1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Today's record low for NYC is -1° from 1873. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Actually Boston seems to be getting less and less snow on Monday on recent models. Not sure why but I'm guessing the initial snow is not making it as far east and a flatter secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Either this model is smoking some good stuff (very likely) or people will be surprised on Monday (even if some of it is sleet thats still a lot of frozen precip). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Either this model is smoking some good stuff (very likely) or people will be surprised on Monday (even if some of it is sleet thats still a lot of frozen precip). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Willing to bet very strongly that’s incorrect in a SWFE with 980s low west of Buffalo, with retreating confluence. I could see in a best case scenario a lot of sleet but even that’s far fetched when we also have strong ESE surface winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Either this model is smoking some good stuff (very likely) or people will be surprised on Monday (even if some of it is sleet thats still a lot of frozen precip). https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Yeah as we talked about yesterday, UKMET has become a crazy model. Very often it's wildly on its own and ends up being dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Looks like decent consensus for about 0.5 inch tomorrow. I know some models show a bit more but that seems realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Looks like decent consensus for about 0.5 inch tomorrow. I know some models show a bit more but that seems realistic. Yeah I just saw that Euro is still showing a quarter to half inch coating tomorrow. Right now we have to assume that NAM is wrong with the 1 to 2 inches, and expect just a coating. But you never know for sure ... we can hope that NAM is onto something and will be correct for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I just saw that Euro is still showing a quarter to half inch coating tomorrow. Right now we have to assume that NAM is wrong with the 1 to 2 inches, and expect just a coating. But you never know for sure ... we can hope that NAM is onto something and will be correct for a change. A few years ago the NAM was a good short range model but I can't remember the last time it had a win when it was showing something different from other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some quick statistics: wow 1955-56 turned out to be one of our better seasons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Looks like decent consensus for about 0.5 inch tomorrow. I know some models show a bit more but that seems realistic. 1 inch tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Willing to bet very strongly that’s incorrect in a SWFE with 980s low west of Buffalo, with retreating confluence. I could see in a best case scenario a lot of sleet but even that’s far fetched when we also have strong ESE surface winds. How did we do so well in VD 2007 I wonder Well relatively well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: How did we do so well in VD 2007 I wonder Well relatively well. Wasn't that more of a coastal hugger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 45 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We’ll have snowy winters again here. We just need this constant perma-Nina to end. We were also overdue for duds after the bonanzas over the last 20 years. Averages and climo always reassert themselves and we balance out. As has been mentioned many times we don’t live in Boston so we can’t expect their climo, even though if anything they’re more overdue than us. I do think that JFK is going to average less than 15 inches of snow within a couple of decades, even with our "snowy winters" JFK has had 10 winters with less than 10 inches of snow in the past 35 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Wasn't that more of a coastal hugger? No, primary into the lakes and a secondary formed to hold in the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: No, primary into the lakes and a secondary formed to hold in the cold air Oh so similar setup then but I'm guessing way stronger secondary. I remember the storm well but not the synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Oh so similar setup then but I'm guessing way stronger secondary. I remember the storm well but not the synoptics. I loved how we stayed below freezing even here on the south shore and JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Euro backs Ukie for Monday-Tuesday. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2023022412&fh=96&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 12Z Euro severely weakens the primary and develops a secondary quickly off the NJ coast. Thats what we would need to see a more wintry solution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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