February 2023

[Allsnow]

Rgem further north for tomorrow 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

there was a reason it was historically intense.

also December isn't really a snow month around here

 

I mean yeah, anytime you have intense NAO flexing at the same time as an extremely intense RNA you are going to have the risk of an intense storm. 

However I stand by the thoughts r/r/t the fact that if either were a little off, this entire winter has a different feel.

 

[snywx]

16 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yea although reading some of the comments here you'd think north of I84 and SNE has 100 inches of snow on the winter, they haven't had it much better than us thus far. Obviously this storm could change that if it verifies as currently depicted.  

 

But really I think anyone not highly elevated and south of I90 thus far has had <10 inches snow this winter. 

 

Yeap pretty close.. 13.1” so far here and I’m about 2 miles N of 84 w/850’ of elevation. 90% of that falling in December. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean yeah, anytime you have intense NAO flexing at the same time as an extremely intense RNA you are going to have the risk of an intense storm. 

However I stand by the thoughts r/r/t the fact that if either were a little off, this entire winter has a different feel.

 

If it happened now or even in January I think the result would be much more snowy.

 

[JustinRP37]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

to be fair elevation neutralizes that and sun angle affects urban areas MUCH more

 

Elevation certainly plays a role, but you also see an increasing in the rate of sublimation because of sun angle. Point is sun angle is just ONE component, not THE only component. March has been snowier than December for awhile now, despite the sun angle. Air mass does matter. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Elevation certainly plays a role, but you also see an increasing in the rate of sublimation because of sun angle. Point is sun angle is just ONE component, not THE only component. March has been snowier than December for awhile now, despite the sun angle. Air mass does matter. 

yes I'm a big advocate of removing December as a winter month, that's moreso because it's more sensitive to climate change than anything else though.

The urban concrete factor has more to do than elevation probably.

The best evidence of that is having multiple 10"+ storms in December and even a HECS with 20" of snow in December while I have not experienced anything like that in March here.  March 1993 hit 11 inches here but changed to rain, since then nothing that was more than 8 inches.

 

[tdp146]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

How large is this window?  March 10 - April 10 ?

 

March 10 - Memorial Day. Then it’s 90s till October. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

3k has nothing lol 

Yeah the nam is likely overdone 

[JustinRP37]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

yes I'm a big advocate of removing December as a winter month, that's moreso because it's more sensitive to climate change than anything else though.

The urban concrete factor has more to do than elevation probably.

The best evidence of that is having multiple 10"+ storms in December and even a HECS with 20" of snow in December while I have not experienced anything like that in March here.  March 1993 hit 11 inches here but changed to rain, since then nothing that was more than 8 inches.

 

Sure urban heat island is a big deal for NYC, but… we don’t all live in NYC. Despite the warmer temperatures and higher sun angle, March is the snowiest month at Killington. Sure that is out of the tri-state, but there are many areas around here that routinely receive March snow. Urban heat island is something you see in any major city including Denver. Point is, while sun angle is important, some on here have you believe that once you get to March we are toast, which is not the case. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Sure urban heat island is a big deal for NYC, but… we don’t all live in NYC. Despite the warmer temperatures and higher sun angle, March is the snowiest month at Killington. Sure that is out of the tri-state, but there are many areas around here that routinely receive March snow. Urban heat island is something you see in any major city including Denver. Point is, while sun angle is important, some on here have you believe that once you get to March we are toast, which is not the case. 

Unfortunately UHI is spreading, it's just as bad here on Western Long Island and probably similar in NE NJ and SW CT.

 

I appreciate the moderate snows we can get in March and even April, I just find it extremely unlikely anything historic will happen.

 

[winterwx21]

46 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Rgem further north for tomorrow 

Yeah it's improving, but still nothing like the NAM. I need to see the RGEM come aboard to believe we're going to see a 1 to 2 inch snow event like the NAM has. Hopefully RGEM will continue to come north and beef up the precip later today. This has potential to be our best event of the season, which is really sad of course. I don't think we're gonna see any snow from the early next week storm, so I'm hoping we can at least pull off a nice little half inch to 1 inch snow event tomorrow. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Unfortunately UHI is spreading, it's just as bad here on Western Long Island and probably similar in NE NJ and SW CT.

 

I appreciate the moderate snows we can get in March and even April, I just find it extremely unlikely anything historic will happen.

 

It’s really the densely populated part of S Nassau that’s bad. N Nassau where there’s elevation and more thinly populated isn’t as bad with the UHI. Even Bayside/Douglaston isn’t so bad. They can do well in marginal events that I remember SW Nassau especially being white rain. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's improving, but still nothing like the NAM. I need to see the RGEM come aboard to believe we're going to see a 1 to 2 inch snow event like the NAM has. Hopefully RGEM will continue to come north and beef up the precip later today. This has potential to be our best event of the season, which is really sad of course. I don't think we're gonna see any snow from the early next week storm, so I'm hoping we can at least pull off a nice little half inch to 1 inch snow event tomorrow. 

It’ll probably be a coating to a half inch which will be nice to see but will be gone a few hours later or as soon as the sun can get to it. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s really the densely populated part of S Nassau that’s bad. N Nassau where there’s elevation and more thinly populated isn’t as bad with the UHI. Even Bayside/Douglaston isn’t so bad. They can do well in marginal events that I remember SW Nassau especially being white rain. 

Yes from your bad memories of living here, we're still looking for that unicorn historic March storm that we've been talking about for 20 years lol

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It’ll probably be a coating to a half inch which will be nice to see but will be gone a few hours later or as soon as the sun can get to it. 

Hopefully it lasts til Sunday all day Saturday snow with temps in the 20s and a frigid night to follow.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2017)
NYC : 75 (1985)
LGA: 73 (1985)

 

Lows:

LGA: 6 (2015)
EWR: 4 (2015)
NYC: -4 (1873)

 

Historical:

1852 - The Susquehanna River ice bridge at Havre de Grace, MD, commenced to break up after forty days of use. A total of 1738 loaded freight cars were hauled along rails laid on the ice. (David Ludlum)

1936 - Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1969: The famous "100-Hour Storm" began in Boston, MA. Snow often fell between early on the 25th and noon on the 28th. The 26.3 inches at Logan Airport is the 2nd most significant snowstorm in Boston's history. In addition, 77 inches fell at Pinkham Notch Base Station in New Hampshire, bringing their February total to 130 inches. Their snow cover on the 27th was 164 inches. Mt. Washington, NH, received 172.8 inches of snow in the month.

1987 - A massive winter storm began to overspread the western U.S. In southern California, Big Bear was blanketed with 17 inches of snow, and Lake Hughes reported four inches of snow in just one hour. Snow pellets whitened coastal areas of Orange County and San Diego County, with three inches at Huntington Beach. The storm also produced thunderstorms with hail and waterspouts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region which created "white-out" conditions in eastern Upper Michigan. Squalls produced up to 14 inches of snow in Geauga County of northeastern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northerly winds prevailed from Illinois to the Southern and Central Appalachians. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Sewickley Heights PA. High winds caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow across northern and central Indiana through the day. Wind gusts to 47 mph and 6 to 8 inches of snow created white-out conditions around South Bend IN. Traffic accidents resulted in two deaths and 130 injuries. Sixty-five persons were injured in one accident along Interstate 69 in Huntington County. Wind gusts to 60 mph and 4 to 8 inches of snow created blizzard conditions in eastern and northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Over a dozen tornadoes spawned in central and eastern Arkansas. The strongest tornado (F3) was in Desha County, with parts of a farm shop found six miles away from where it was blown apart. An 18-month-old was killed in Fulton County by an F2 tornado. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Little Rock, Arkansas.

2004 - Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. he mountains east of Santa Fe receive 20 inches. Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches. 8 inches falls at Los Alamos.

 

2016: A strong area of low pressure along with a cold front produced a severe weather outbreak from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Not one but two rare February tornadoes occurred in central Virginia. The strongest tornado caused EF3 damage in Appomattox County. This is the first EF3 tornado ever in Appomattox County.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes from your bad memories of living here, we're still looking for that unicorn historic March storm that we've been talking about for 20 years lol

 

3/20/18 was good in Long Beach but way better where I am now where there was up to 18”. I had 10” or so of absolute glop. 4/7/03 was another where there was easily 6” on the south shore in the middle of the day. But so many others I remember white rain or struggles to accumulate while the N Shore did so easily. 

[SACRUS]

44 winds picking up a bit.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

[JustinRP37]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Unfortunately UHI is spreading, it's just as bad here on Western Long Island and probably similar in NE NJ and SW CT.

 

I appreciate the moderate snows we can get in March and even April, I just find it extremely unlikely anything historic will happen.

 

I never said anything about historic. But just merely pointing out that with the right air mass we can do well inland. Sure snow in the city is fine, but let's get it where it matters our local ski areas! 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

3/20/18 was good in Long Beach but way better where I am now where there was up to 18”. I had 10” or so of absolute glop. 4/7/03 was another where there was easily 6” on the south shore in the middle of the day. But so many others I remember white rain or struggles to accumulate while the N Shore did so easily. 

Yes I enjoy April snow a lot more than March snow but haven't gotten 10 inches here in either month.  8" is tops I think and got that in March 2018 and also in April 2003.  Got 6" in April 2018!

April 2003 was one of my favorite storms of all time.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I never said anything about historic. But just merely pointing out that with the right air mass we can do well inland. Sure snow in the city is fine, but let's get it where it matters our local ski areas! 

They sure do and we need it for our reservoirs too!

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2017)
NYC : 75 (1985)
LGA: 73 (1985)

 

Lows:

LGA: 6 (2015)
EWR: 4 (2015)
NYC: -4 (1983)

 

Historical:

1852 - The Susquehanna River ice bridge at Havre de Grace, MD, commenced to break up after forty days of use. A total of 1738 loaded freight cars were hauled along rails laid on the ice. (David Ludlum)

1936 - Vermont and New Hampshire received brown snow due to dust from storms in the Great Plains Region. A muddy rain fell across parts of northern New York State. (24th-25th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1969: The famous "100-Hour Storm" began in Boston, MA. Snow often fell between early on the 25th and noon on the 28th. The 26.3 inches at Logan Airport is the 2nd most significant snowstorm in Boston's history. In addition, 77 inches fell at Pinkham Notch Base Station in New Hampshire, bringing their February total to 130 inches. Their snow cover on the 27th was 164 inches. Mt. Washington, NH, received 172.8 inches of snow in the month.

1987 - A massive winter storm began to overspread the western U.S. In southern California, Big Bear was blanketed with 17 inches of snow, and Lake Hughes reported four inches of snow in just one hour. Snow pellets whitened coastal areas of Orange County and San Diego County, with three inches at Huntington Beach. The storm also produced thunderstorms with hail and waterspouts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region which created "white-out" conditions in eastern Upper Michigan. Squalls produced up to 14 inches of snow in Geauga County of northeastern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northerly winds prevailed from Illinois to the Southern and Central Appalachians. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Sewickley Heights PA. High winds caused considerable blowing and drifting of snow across northern and central Indiana through the day. Wind gusts to 47 mph and 6 to 8 inches of snow created white-out conditions around South Bend IN. Traffic accidents resulted in two deaths and 130 injuries. Sixty-five persons were injured in one accident along Interstate 69 in Huntington County. Wind gusts to 60 mph and 4 to 8 inches of snow created blizzard conditions in eastern and northern Ohio. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Over a dozen tornadoes spawned in central and eastern Arkansas. The strongest tornado (F3) was in Desha County, with parts of a farm shop found six miles away from where it was blown apart. An 18-month-old was killed in Fulton County by an F2 tornado. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Little Rock, Arkansas.

2004 - Heavy snows blanket wide areas of northern New Mexico, closing schools and highways. he mountains east of Santa Fe receive 20 inches. Sandia Park, east of Albuquerque, measures 11 inches. 8 inches falls at Los Alamos.

 

2016: A strong area of low pressure along with a cold front produced a severe weather outbreak from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Not one but two rare February tornadoes occurred in central Virginia. The strongest tornado caused EF3 damage in Appomattox County. This is the first EF3 tornado ever in Appomattox County.

wow I remember both the record highs and record lows well

ps Tony please check that -4 low at NYC from 1983, that can't be right lol

2015 was the coldest I've ever seen it this late.

and this:  How did this thing miss us?!

1989 - A total of thirty-three cities in the eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, and an Atlantic coast storm spread heavy snow from Georgia to southern New England. Snowfall totals in New Jersey ranged up to 24 inches in May County, with 19 inches reported at Atlantic City. Totals in North Carolina ranged up to 18 inches in Gates County, and winds along the coast of North Carolina gusted to 70 mph at Duck Pier. Strong winds gusting to 52 mph created blizzard conditions at Chatham MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah it's improving, but still nothing like the NAM. I need to see the RGEM come aboard to believe we're going to see a 1 to 2 inch snow event like the NAM has. Hopefully RGEM will continue to come north and beef up the precip later today. This has potential to be our best event of the season, which is really sad of course. I don't think we're gonna see any snow from the early next week storm, so I'm hoping we can at least pull off a nice little half inch to 1 inch snow event tomorrow. 

Gfs very meh. 
 

Looks like it pounds Boston with 12+ next week. The difference in snowfall between Boston and nyc will be huge by mid March 

[Winterweatherlover]

I think gfs is too warm on Monday because even RGEM starts nyc snow. RGEM has a slight warm bias so it’s a good model to consider for likelihood of frozen precip. 

[cleetussnow]

Lights flickering at my house.  heard a transformer go boom

[Winterweatherlover]

The storm on 3/4 really looks like a possible monster for those on  the right side of the gradient. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The storm on 3/4 really looks like a possible monster for those on  the right side of the gradient. 

34 and rain on the gfs but I'd don't expect it to find the solution for another 4 days

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

To summarize, watch the WC trough as it is running the show. It touches BAJA and you connect the SER to the NAO. Until it rises I would be skeptical of a pattern change on the op. model runs.

Bump 

[EastonSN+]

The lastest 3.04 scenario on the models was expected given the trough has not lessened in the west as of yet. Our window starts 3.10.

CAN we thread the needle before then? Sure, however temps will be an issue and the SER can connect to the NAO causing "cutters" or "runners". 

That being said, I think we have serious potential starting 3.10.

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think gfs is too warm on Monday because even RGEM starts nyc snow. RGEM has a slight warm bias so it’s a good model to consider for likelihood of frozen precip. 

Look at soundings before any clown snow map outputs. I haven’t for this run but for me if the primary low is driving up west of Buffalo it tells me all I need to know for what I should expect.