February 2023

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

 

 

?????forky????? As aways ….

[SnoSki14]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My biggest event of the season 

Same here. We've had less than 0.5 for the year

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Same here. We've had less than 0.5 for the year

This wont endanger the historic nature of this season so I feel it's okay to root for this lol

[EastonSN+]

Long range on the ensembles all show a progression to a colder pattern. The PNA does not go positive through the 15 day period. HOWEVER, the RNA does go above -1 SD on the charts (on the ensembles represented as a trough that does not go into the Baja and therefore a SE ridge that is muted into the gulf states).

The main difference of the ensemble suites is the GEFS gives us a brief window around the 6th before the 10th while the EPS is rather warm until the 10th

Summary - still on track for the 10th +, - a couple days for our window. 

[SnoSki14]

This is how I see the next month playing out 

Some snow showers and maybe light accumulations on the 25th aka tomorrow. 

Storm potential March 3/4 followed by brief warmup (could be very warm for 1-2 days) and then an extended cool period starting near the 10th as heights build in the arctic and strong RNA pattern breaks down. 

That could last til the end of March and into April. Beyond March 3/4 there's probably another snow window or two in the March 10-25 time frame. 

After that climo is very much against us even if anomalies stay cold. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is how I see the next month playing out 

Some snow showers and maybe light accumulations on the 25th aka tomorrow. 

Storm potential March 3/4 followed by brief warmup (could be very warm for 1-2 days) and then an extended cool period starting near the 10th as heights build in the arctic and strong RNA pattern breaks down. 

That could last til the end of March and into April. Beyond March 3/4 there's probably another snow window or two in the March 10-25 time frame. 

After that climo is very much against us even if anomalies stay cold. 

it can snow here in early April too

it did in 2018 and a few other years

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Long range on the ensembles all show a progression to a colder pattern. The PNA does not go positive through the 15 day period. HOWEVER, the RNA does go above -1 SD on the charts (on the ensembles represented as a trough that does not go into the Baja and therefore a SE ridge that is muted into the gulf states).

The main difference of the ensemble suites is the GEFS gives us a brief window around the 6th before the 10th while the EPS is rather warm until the 10th

Summary - still on track for the 10th +, - a couple days for our window. 

How large is this window?  March 10 - April 10 ?

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

How large is this window?  March 10 - April 10 ?

 

Hard to tell at this point. It's at least 10 days. 

[gravitylover]

This wind is the real deal. 

[SnoSki14]

Also note the highly amplified MJO into phase 8 near March 8-10. 

Phase 8 in March isnt as cold as in other months but it still carries weight

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is how I see the next month playing out 

Some snow showers and maybe light accumulations on the 25th aka tomorrow. 

Storm potential March 3/4 followed by brief warmup (could be very warm for 1-2 days) and then an extended cool period starting near the 10th as heights build in the arctic and strong RNA pattern breaks down. 

That could last til the end of March and into April. Beyond March 3/4 there's probably another snow window or two in the March 10-25 time frame. 

After that climo is very much against us even if anomalies stay cold. 

We probably get something to avoid record low snowfall imo 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Also note the highly amplified MJO into phase 8 near March 8-10. 

Phase 8 in March isnt as cold as in other months but it still carries weight

IT's better than the 4-5-6 we have seen for the better part of 3 years

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Allsnow said:

We probably get something to avoid record low snowfall imo 

This winter is still a massive turd and remains the worst by a good margin but I agree that it's unlikely we set a new record for low snow totals.

[EastonSN+]

Trough touches BAJA, SER connects to NAO and we are warm.

[EastonSN+]

Roll forward trough rises a bit and the SER is muted and does not connect to the NAO and we have big potential. We do not need a POS PNA just a -1sd RNA or higher. To much PNA and we have suppression.

[EastonSN+]

To summarize, watch the WC trough as it is running the show. It touches BAJA and you connect the SER to the NAO. Until it rises I would be skeptical of a pattern change on the op. model runs.

[Stormlover74]

Nam with the 1.5 to 2" bullseye for parts of the city/NE nj

[JustinRP37]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We are not New England. Post 3/15 becomes very difficult to sustain cold and snow at this latitude minus freak, anomalous events. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all working against you big time by then. By the end of March, you have an August sun overhead

Actually you have a late September sun by the end of March seeing as the first day of spring is March 20 which would correspond with September 23, the first day of fall. But semantics. 

[SnowGoose69]

24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Trough touches BAJA, SER connects to NAO and we are warm.

With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March

[JustinRP37]

And while we are all talking about sun angle, I guess it never snows in Arizona, Mexico, etc because the sun angle there is so much more intense. All that Utah, Colorado snow is just a fable since you need sunscreen this time of year to avoid burning. Must be skiing on ash and not powder. /s

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam with the 1.5 to 2" bullseye for parts of the city/NE nj

3k has nothing lol 

[mikem81]

The UKMET and EPS look much improved for Monday Night (interesting solutions with more precip in our area than ENE

[mikem81]

[SnowGoose69]

The 06z Euro is the closest thing to the NAM right now for tomorrow afternoon and evening

[mikem81]

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The problem is the primary that floods the area with warm temps before the coastal takes over.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

And while we are all talking about sun angle, I guess it never snows in Arizona, Mexico, etc because the sun angle there is so much more intense. All that Utah, Colorado snow is just a fable since you need sunscreen this time of year to avoid burning. Must be skiing on ash and not powder. /s

to be fair elevation neutralizes that and sun angle affects urban areas MUCH more

 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March

Agreed. Also if that second wave was a little weaker in December instead of historically intense, the 3rd wave had a chance to give us a real good event.

We were due to strike out in a decent pattern with the way the 2000s have worked in our favor.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. Also if that second wave was a little weaker in December instead of historically intense, the 3rd wave had a chance to give us a real good event.

We were due to strike out in a decent pattern with the way the 2000s have worked in our favor.

there was a reason it was historically intense.

also December isn't really a snow month around here

 

[mikem81]

NAO going negative for first time since early December if this is correct and well timed for Tuesday storm if the confluence is strong enough