February 2023

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

We are not New England. Post 3/15 becomes very difficult to sustain cold and snow at this latitude minus freak, anomalous events. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all working against you big time by then. By the end of March, you have an August sun overhead

Again with the stupid sun angle bullcrap ? Snow can stick if it comes down heavy.

[snowman19]

I still don't know how much of the 10:1 on the Ukie is snow vs sleet but if its really snow then it has the snow way south of the other models. 

Levi Cowan did a write up on it a few years ago, but the UKMET 10:1 ratio snowmaps are badly overdone. They count sleet as snow

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What we do get on Mon night/Tue will probably be in and out in 8 hours since the primary low will drive the dry slot in before the coastal can take over-on all the modeling at this point unless you're well into CT or way upstate. And on the GFS at least for my immediate area on the north shore it shows a close shave between very cold rain, sleet and even snow if the heavy precip can cool the column down on the soundings. Based on that it's possible that much of Suffolk gets a ton of sleet from this and can avoid a washout. In the city the soundings look a little milder. But my bet is still that anyone near the coast gets quick sleet to rain, and a ton of sleet north of the city to near I-84.

Saturday looks interesting for wintry/mood snow but doesn't look like more than the few coatings to half inch we've gotten this "winter". I guess it'll be nice for the few hours it's around.

Saturday will be more interesting here than Monday night will be

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

As you go further east on LI, the climate becomes more New England like. NYC is a transition spot between Mid Atlantic and New England-like climates. NYC can be slammed with just about every winter storm type but totally screwed at the same time, and almost always ends up near the gradient. The upcoming Tue storm SWFE to Miller B is the type that just about always will clobber Boston unless there's a major shift in its evolution. We don't have a winter storm type here that will always clobber us-we always sweat until the very end. But this one is clearly trending the wrong way. 

Our forecasts are always the ones with the highest bust potential.  I think even if you go back to the 80s and 90s, it's much easier to make snow predictions for both DC and Boston than it is for NYC.

Also completely agree about Suffolk County having more of a New England climate, you can see it when you compare the biggest snowstorms there, they line up with Boston's biggest snowstorms rather than NYC's.

 

[nycwinter]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Again with the stupid sun angle bullcrap ? Snow can stick if it comes down heavy.

 

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are not New England. Post 3/15 becomes very difficult to sustain cold and snow at this latitude minus freak, anomalous events. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all working against you big time by then. By the end of March, you have an August sun overhead

how did you go from march 15 to march 31 in the same sentence?

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Are we talking “cold” relative to mid-late March climo standards?

 You never know with March though. In mid March of 2017, NYC actually had a colder week than any so far this winter (along with 9.7" of snow from two storms) and that month as a whole was only 4 BN! So, don't count out that kind of thing even though it is unlikely.

 Did you know that the day with the coldest normal for the Arctic north of 80N isn't til Feb 25th? Also, the coldest day there so far this winter was today! This doesn't mean that it is capable of getting anywhere near the coldest ever recorded in DJF. But it does mean that it is still capable of getting quite cold if the atmospheric mechanisms and nearby snowcover are in place:

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[Cfa]

6 hours ago, Cfa said:

39/37 split today. 0.06” of mist. Backdoor Cold Front vibes. Today was more than enough winter for me. I’m done.

Late high of 42. Gross.

[winterwx21]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Saturday will be more interesting here than Monday night will be

Euro now gets 1 inch snow up into southern NJ. Other models do as well. The batch of precip that models had missing us way to the south is trending north. Hopefully during friday the models will continue to bump north to get our area into the 1 inch snows. A minor event, but I would gladly take a cold wintry day with light accumulating snow saturday. We haven't had a day like that all winter. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro now gets 1 inch snow up into southern NJ. Other models do as well. The batch of precip that models had missing us way to the south is trending north. Hopefully during friday the models will continue to bump north to get our area into the 1 inch snows. A minor event, but I would gladly take a cold wintry day with light accumulating snow saturday. We haven't had a day like that all winter. 

and they're very underrated, especially if it snows all day long with no breaks with temps in the 20s.

 

[Cfa]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Our forecasts are always the ones with the highest bust potential.  I think even if you go back to the 80s and 90s, it's much easier to make snow predictions for both DC and Boston than it is for NYC.

Also completely agree about Suffolk County having more of a New England climate, you can see it when you compare the biggest snowstorms there, they line up with Boston's biggest snowstorms rather than NYC's.

 

West/Central Suffolk County is NYC indented slightly further into the Atlantic with an anemic UHI. The Forks share DNA with Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, but outside of that I don’t see any strong correlation with New England. Suffolk County is warmer than all of New England, MTK is actually naturally milder than NYC/LGA/JFK/EWR in the winter.

Longitude can count during some storms, but we can’t discount latitude, elevation, wind direction, etc. which isn’t dissimilar to NYC. ISP and FRG averages, departures from average, temperature records, and precipitation seem to generally stay in alignment with the greater NYC area.

Suffolk County is basically Portland, ME and Richmond, VA fused together, while retaining Richmond’s plant hardiness zone.

[IrishRob17]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

By the end of March, you have an August sun overhead

Close but no cigar.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 23rd:

[Rtd208]

It looks like a period of light snow/snow showers tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me if some areas pick up an inch or so. 

[binbisso]

6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like a period of light snow/snow showers tomorrow. It would surprise me if some areas pick up an inch or so. 

Sneaky little event. Short range models like  nam hrrr and rap getting interesting. Temps will be in the 20's. Whatever falls should stick.  Not expecting much but an inch would equal Biggest snowfall this Winter

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will fall during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 49°

A sharp but brief cold shot is likely this weekend. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 44.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.1°; 15-Year: 45.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.5°; 15-Year: 46.3°

[Yanksfan]

EURO now shows a coastal for next weekends storm. Last nights run misses to the south, but the CMC and GFS show good hits.

[Nibor]

31 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like a period of light snow/snow showers tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me if some areas pick up an inch or so. 

 

On 2/16/2023 at 4:16 PM, Rtd208 said:

Singing.

Done.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Cfa said:

West/Central Suffolk County is NYC indented slightly further into the Atlantic with an anemic UHI. The Forks share DNA with Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, but outside of that I don’t see any strong correlation with New England. Suffolk County is warmer than all of New England, MTK is actually naturally milder than NYC/LGA/JFK/EWR in the winter.

Longitude can count during some storms, but we can’t discount latitude, elevation, wind direction, etc. which isn’t dissimilar to NYC. ISP and FRG averages, departures from average, temperature records, and precipitation seem to generally stay in alignment with the greater NYC area.

Suffolk County is basically Portland, ME and Richmond, VA fused together, while retaining Richmond’s plant hardiness zone.

North Shore of Suffolk County actually reminds me of southern CT especially with how they benefit from late blooming Miller B's.

Say the area from Huntington out to Wading River.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Close but no cigar.

So those early April snows we sometimes get had an early September sun angle.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

North Shore of Suffolk County actually reminds me of southern CT especially with how the benefit from late blooming Miller B's.

Say the area from Huntington out to Wading River.

 

The snow average where I am is I’d say 35”, NorthShoreWX has Smithtown at 38” going back to the early 1990s I think. That’s on par with or better than S CT. It’s worlds different here than SW Nassau where I grew up. It’s not like interior New England here for sure but coastal CT/RI, sure. 2018-19 and 2020-21 even were laughably different at times between Long Beach and here. Many more early and late freezes as well being away from the UHI. Most don’t realize that the Sound actually helps enhance LI snowfall as well in major events where we have strong NE winds bring some moisture as well as an orographic lift/frictional convergence component. In the late Jan 2022 major event it was blindingly obvious how the Sound effect helped linger the snow.

If people think there’s no difference between the two areas, try the comparison over a few winters and it becomes pretty apparent. We’re definitely not a snow belt but it does help here and there and it does add up in normal winters, not atrocities like this year. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The snow average where I am is I’d say 35”, NorthShoreWX has Smithtown at 38” going back to the early 1990s I think. That’s on par with or better than S CT. It’s worlds different here than SW Nassau where I grew up. It’s not like interior New England here for sure but coastal CT/RI, sure. 2018-19 and 2020-21 even were laughably different at times between Long Beach and here. Many more early and late freezes as well being away from the UHI. Most don’t realize that the Sound actually helps enhance LI snowfall as well in major events where we have strong NE winds bring some moisture as well as an orographic lift/frictional convergence component. In the late Jan 2022 major event it was blindingly obvious how the Sound effect helped linger the snow.

If people think there’s no difference between the two areas, try the comparison over a few winters and it becomes pretty apparent. We’re definitely not a snow belt but it does help here and there and it does add up in normal winters, not atrocities like this year. 

Remember that middle storm in January 2011....I think you were living in SW Nassau and we had what-- 6 inches in that storm?  Even less than NYC which had 9".  And out where you are now, it was well over a foot, maybe 20"?  It's so different compared to here, and it's not even a smooth rise, it's like the snowfall amounts take a big jump when you get to Huntington.  And I specifically picked that storm because there were no mix or rain issues at all, it just blossomed late and hit that region much harder than it hit the rest of us.

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Remember that middle storm in January 2011....I think you were living in SW Nassau and we had what-- 6 inches in that storm?  Even less than NYC which had 9".  And out where you are now, it was well over a foot, maybe 20"?  It's so different compared to here, and it's not even a smooth rise, it's like the snowfall amounts take a big jump when you get to Huntington.  And I specifically picked that storm because there were no mix or rain issues at all, it just blossomed late and hit that region much harder than it hit the rest of us.

 

If you’re referring to 1/12/11 it was probably 8-9” in Long Beach. It was just something of a late bloomer like you said that nailed Suffolk County and especially CT. The dividing line here is really the LIE I’d say, which is where the terrain becomes elevated/hilly. Distance from the UHI also helps but the few extra miles from the ocean influence also help. 

[Allsnow]

Euro at 06z around .5 tomorrow now 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If you’re referring to 1/12/11 it was probably 8-9” in Long Beach. It was just something of a late bloomer like you said that nailed Suffolk County and especially CT. 

Yes that one....JFK measured 6" I think so I just used those numbers for us, but it was probably 8-9 just  a bit less than the 9.2 at NYC.  20 inches once you got to Port Jefferson though and as great as the other two big ones were that season.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro at 06z around .5 tomorrow now 

Is this an all daytime snow?  Something like noon to 6 pm for start and end times?

[CIK62]

The last 5 days of February are averaging       37degs.(30/44) or -1.

Month to date is       42.3[+6.9].        February should end at       41.3[+5.4].

Reached 44 here yesterday.

Today:   Falling T's, 37 by sunset, wind nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 21 tomorrow AM.

43*(89%RH) at 6am.       44* at 7am.       45* at 8am.     46* at 9am.    47* at 9:15am.       42* at Noon.        36* at 6pm.          32* at 9pm.        29* at 10pm.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this an all daytime snow?  Something like noon to 6 pm for start and end times?

Yes. Temps below frz 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this an all daytime snow?  Something like noon to 6 pm for start and end times?

My biggest event of the season 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My biggest event of the season 

I'm quite excited about it, the best event since that one in January when it snowed on and off all day.  That was also on a Saturday.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. Temps below frz 

Well, at least we have this to look forward to.