February 2023

[donsutherland1]

The ECMWF weeklies for March 13-20. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF weeklies for March 13-20. 

We could still get a nice snow event in that timeframe if we can line up a well timed system and some blocking. To me that kind of cold anomaly everywhere might just mean cold and dry but we’ll see. 

[Snowlover11]

Super foggy outside.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ECMWF weeklies for March 13-20. 

 Don/Folks,

 The prior run's March 13-20 had had the strongest cold signal for the E US for any week in March of 2023 yet. And now this one that you just posted has a significantly stronger cold signal than that one.

 In addition, the subsequent week (March 20-27) on this new run has a much stronger cold signal than the prior run had for that week and about as strong a signal as the prior run's March 13-20. So, this is an impressively strong cold signal for the E US overall on the latest Euro weeklies for 3/13-27! The major SSW and the upcoming new very notable weakening are doing their thing apparently! This new strat weakening is projected to bring 60N 10 mb winds all the way to near -17 m/s on Feb 28th! The major SSW, though quite impressive in its own right, brought those winds down only to -13 m/s (on Feb 18th).

*Edited to clarify that I'm talking about strongest cold signal for any week in March of 2023

[MJO812]

Dustings

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dustings

A dusting would be my biggest event this season 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Probably, and there will be a large SW/NE gradient across this sub forum (I am in CT so a little more optimistic).

Still I would take CMC for the entire period. Better than what we have seen.

Yes this is much more so a N of NYC storm so not optimistic about this area.

A lot of the 80s and early 90s storms were like this

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks so much Don!

This period coming up has the most potential since December. Would be nice to see the ground covered again!

2001-02 still ranks higher to me than 2011-12 does because 2011-12 had the October snowstorm at least, which was historic.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Boston is having a lousy winter but not completely shut out like we are and they have as good a chance as anyone with this upcoming setup-unless something seriously goes wrong with this early next week storm they’re in for at least a solid warning event. Nina winters in general work out just fine for most of New England and are on balance probably better than El Niño especially stronger Ninos because SWFE events which Nina’s send trains of work out way better there. 07-08 was a great New England winter but totally sucked in NYC for that reason. 

At this point I couldn’t care less about 1-3” to rain that washes it away 2 hours later. If that’s what we get I’d be annoyed if anything since we wouldn’t get the #1 least snowy winter spot. I’d be at least rooting on some kind of record to end this utter disaster. 

Yes the only good thing about 07-08 here was the February 22nd storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Don/Folks,

 The prior run's March 13-20 had had the strongest cold signal for the E US for any week in March yet. And now this one that you just posted has a significantly stronger cold signal than that one.

 In addition, the subsequent week (March 20-27) on this new run has a much stronger cold signal than the prior run had for that week and about as strong a signal as the prior run's March 13-20. So, this is an impressively strong cold signal for the E US overall on the latest Euro weeklies for 3/13-27! The major SSW and the upcoming new very notable weakening are doing their thing apparently! This new strat weakening is projected to bring 60N 10 mb winds all the way to near -17 m/s on Feb 28th! The major SSW, though quite impressive in its own right, brought those winds down only to -13 m/s (on Feb 18th).

what do you mean strongest cold signal for any week in March yet-- do you mean ever?  Better than March 2018?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

What's more relevant for us are the lows shown headed NW of Buffalo. Not sure what the trend over time with those has been but I've never seen a good outcome here where we have a low in the 980s headed NW of Buffalo. We want that low to be dying off way sooner than that. You also have to look at the individual members for snow to see if a few crazy members are throwing the mean off. 

Yes this is still a mainly North of NYC storm

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I highly doubt it but Godspeed I guess. My guess is they end up between 25-30" but you're right that it's relatively easy for you guys to go on a crazy few week run. 

On their way there hopefully we peasants down here can be granted a day or two with enough snow to cover the grass, that will stay for more than the hour long intervals we've had a coating so far. I'll be more than happy to settle with that. And then hopefully not shiver in months of backdoor fronts like we suffered the last two springs. 

last two springs have been warm and dry though.

we're not really peasants, at least we're not DC and Baltimore and Philly although our climate is much more like them than it is like Boston.  Not sure why people always want to compare NYC to Boston.

 

[winterwx21]

43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dustings

This NAM run actually gets 1 to 2 inches up into central New Jersey. It still looks possible that we'll see a light snow event saturday. We need a little bump north. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Albedoman said:

mid to upper 60's in the LV  just beautiful with sunny skies. Screw winter it is done. Sorry NYC- on the wrong side again.

 

 

Man even the Poconos were way warmer than Long Island today.

So this wasn't really about latitude but how far away from the water you are?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This NAM run actually gets 1 to 2 inches up into central New Jersey. It still looks possible that we'll see a light snow event saturday. We need a little bump north. 

This is going to be WAY more interesting than the Monday night event.  Also happening during the day with temps in the 20s so all snow everywhere!  I could see us getting an inch.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is going to be WAY more interesting than the Monday night event.  Also happening during the day with temps in the 20s so all snow everywhere!  I could see us getting an inch.

15:1 ratios 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

last two springs have been warm and dry though.

we're not really peasants, at least we're not DC and Baltimore and Philly although our climate is much more like them than it is like Boston.  Not sure why people always want to compare NYC to Boston.

 

As you go further east on LI, the climate becomes more New England like. NYC is a transition spot between Mid Atlantic and New England-like climates. NYC can be slammed with just about every winter storm type but totally screwed at the same time, and almost always ends up near the gradient. The upcoming Tue storm SWFE to Miller B is the type that just about always will clobber Boston unless there's a major shift in its evolution. We don't have a winter storm type here that will always clobber us-we always sweat until the very end. But this one is clearly trending the wrong way. 

[Winterweatherlover]

0Z GFS/CMC didn't trend worse for 2/28 at least. 

[Winterweatherlover]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is going to be WAY more interesting than the Monday night event.  Also happening during the day with temps in the 20s so all snow everywhere!  I could see us getting an inch.

Yea maybe. I'm not sure which event will be more interesting or if either will be interesting at all but I see what you are saying about cold and all snow being better. 

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC/GFS both show snow now for next weekend.  

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what do you mean strongest cold signal for any week in March yet-- do you mean ever?  Better than March 2018?

 

 No, I meant strongest cold signal of any March of 2023 week on the Euro Weeklies forecast to date. There have been 10 earlier runs since Jan 19th, which was the first run going into March. None of those 10 runs had even a single March week with this strong of a cold signal in the E US.

 I'll go even further. No single week in any of Jan, Feb, or March of 2023 on any Weeklies run back to Jan 5th (14 runs excluding today's) has had as strong a cold signal (vs normal of course) for the E US as today's for March 13-20 with today's run for March 20-27 and last week's for March 13-20 about tied for second coldest signal.

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what do you mean strongest cold signal for any week in March yet-- do you mean ever?  Better than March 2018?

 

He’s referring to the upcoming March.

[snowman19]

 No, I meant strongest cold signal of any March of 2023 week on the Euro Weeklies forecast to date. There have been 10 earlier runs since Jan 19th, which was the first run going into March. None of those 10 runs had even a single March week with this strong of a cold signal in the E US.
 I'll go even further. No single week in any of Jan, Feb, or March on any Weeklies run back to Jan 5th (14 runs excluding today's) has had as strong a cold signal (vs normal of course) for the E US as today's for March 13-20 with today's run for March 20-27 and last week's for March 13-20 about tied for second coldest signal.

Are we talking “cold” relative to mid-late March climo standards?

[GaWx]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Are we talking “cold” relative to mid-late March climo standards?

 Yes, strongest cold signal vs normals for the respective weeks.

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

CMC/GFS both show snow now for next weekend.  

If it wasn't this winter I would be excited for that potential. 

That being said that's a strong signal this far out with a lot of favorable elements in place. 

GFS has been showing the threat for 6+ cycles. That's unheard of for over a week out. 

[jm1220]

What we do get on Mon night/Tue will probably be in and out in 8 hours since the primary low will drive the dry slot in before the coastal can take over-on all the modeling at this point unless you're well into CT or way upstate. And on the GFS at least for my immediate area on the north shore it shows a close shave between very cold rain, sleet and even snow if the heavy precip can cool the column down on the soundings. Based on that it's possible that much of Suffolk gets a ton of sleet from this and can avoid a washout. In the city the soundings look a little milder. But my bet is still that anyone near the coast gets quick sleet to rain, and a ton of sleet north of the city to near I-84.

Saturday looks interesting for wintry/mood snow but doesn't look like more than the few coatings to half inch we've gotten this "winter". I guess it'll be nice for the few hours it's around.

[George001]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Are we talking “cold” relative to mid-late March climo standards?

If you are trying to imply it’s too late, that’s nonsense. Hell, I would argue that March is quite a bit more favorable for big snows than December. It’s really only the last week of March that is really unfavorable, where as December it’s really only the last week that’s favorable.

[jm1220]

UKMET hasn't looked terrible for Mon PM/Tue for second run now and it's the furthest south with the evolution but wouldn't jump on it until another reliable model heads that way.

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

UKMET hasn't looked terrible for Mon PM/Tue for second run now and it's the furthest south with the evolution but wouldn't jump on it until another reliable model heads that way.

I still don't know how much of the 10:1 on the Ukie is snow vs sleet but if its really snow then it has the snow way south of the other models. 

[snowman19]

If you are trying to imply it’s too late, that’s nonsense. Hell, I would argue that March is quite a bit more favorable for big snows than December. It’s really only the last week of March that is really unfavorable, where as December it’s really only the last week that’s favorable.

We are not New England. Post 3/15 becomes very difficult to sustain cold and snow at this latitude minus freak, anomalous events. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all working against you big time by then. By the end of March, you have an August sun overhead