February 2023

[cleetussnow]

Also based on soundings for my area (HPN), a lot of what is depicted as snow on the GFS is not going to be snow, certainly not accumulating anyway.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

North trend continues.  Slipping away.  To think the NE posters were worried about suppression!

Not our storm. Too early in the Blocking development.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

GFS a little better with the secondary but the primary kills  our snow chances, congrats NE. 

Was just going to say don't even bother looking. For the city/LI it's maybe brief sleet to rain. Still good N of the city but if this stronger primary idea is real it'll start hurting there too. It's a SWFE as far as we're concerned and whatever secondary does develop does so too late to benefit anyone other than eastern New England. Confluence ahead of it looks modest as well and gets kicked right out.

If there's no good turnaround in this trend and soon, the majority of us are done. It'll be an I-90 focused event like so many of these end up.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

North trend continues.  Slipping away.  To think the NE posters were worried about suppression!

Yep and to think we are close to the northeast and average way less than alot of places .

[cleetussnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Not our storm. Too early in the Blocking development.

We may yet see something later.  Tough deal because this was the first storm really all season to get within 6 days model lead time still with a chance...but fits the season.  

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

We may yet see something later.  Tough deal because this was the first storm really all season to get within 6 days model lead time still with a chance...but fits the season.  

Yeah until the RNA loosens it's grip we will have difficulties. Like Chuck said the 8th to the 19th look a little better. I was saying the 10th to 20th so basically same page. Essentially need the RNA to weaken to -1 SD.

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep and to think we are close to the northeast and average way less than alot of places .

We can cash in on any number of storm types when the pieces align but also get absolutely shafted. This winter represents climo Nina to the nth degree. New England usually does perfectly fine in Nina winters and can hold onto the cold air longer in the endless SWFE/cutter trains Ninas cause but we're just below the line where we need the SE ridge to be checked. Sucks.

[Albedoman]

mid to upper 60's in the LV  just beautiful with sunny skies. Screw winter it is done. Sorry NYC- on the wrong side again.

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep and to think we are close to the northeast and average way less than alot of places .

Yea although reading some of the comments here you'd think north of I84 and SNE has 100 inches of snow on the winter, they haven't had it much better than us thus far. Obviously this storm could change that if it verifies as currently depicted.  

 

But really I think anyone not highly elevated and south of I90 thus far has had <10 inches snow this winter. 

 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

We may yet see something later.  Tough deal because this was the first storm really all season to get within 6 days model lead time still with a chance...but fits the season.  

Couldn't care less about anymore model fantasies 8-10 or whatever days from now. Just end this nightmare. At least DC gets their 80 degree day today while we get socked in 38 degree raw gunk.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

So how many runs until this turns into a cutter?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022318&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

So how many runs until this turns into a cutter?

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2023022318&fh=204&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Very likely could until the RNA rises around the 10th 

[lee59]

Looks like Saturday could be one of the few days this winter that actually look wintry.

[weatherpruf]

38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We can cash in on any number of storm types when the pieces align but also get absolutely shafted. This winter represents climo Nina to the nth degree. New England usually does perfectly fine in Nina winters and can hold onto the cold air longer in the endless SWFE/cutter trains Ninas cause but we're just below the line where we need the SE ridge to be checked. Sucks.

It snowed a few inches near Augusta ME this morning, but even they are way below normal if my info is correct.

[donsutherland1]

A stalled warm front cloaked the New York City and Newark areas in murky, chilly conditions. North of the front, parts of New England saw snow. Boston picked up 1.2" (triple New York City's seasonal snowfall to date).

South of the front, record warmth prevailed. Numerous locations set new monthly record high temperatures.

Record highs included:

Athens, GA" 80° (old record: 79°, 1980, 2012, 2017, and 2018)
Baltimore: 79° (old record: 78°, 1874)
Charlotte: 80° (old record: 79°, 2018)
Columbia: 83° (old record: 82°, 1962 and 2018)
Elizabeth City, NC: 83° (old record: 77°, 1975) ***New February Record***
Jacksonville: 88° (old record: 85°, 1962)
Lynchburg: 79° (old record: 74°, 1943)
Macon: 84° (old record: 82°, 2022)
Norfolk: 81° (old record: 79°, 1975)
Pensacola: 83° (old record: 79°, 1994 and 2017) ***New February Record***
Raleigh: 85° (old record: 79°, 1980) ***New February Record***
Richmond: 83° (old record: 75°, 1925, 1985, and 2017) ***Tied February Record***
Savannah: 85° (old record: 84°, 2012 and 2022)
Sterling, VA: 80° (old record: 77°, 2017)
Washington, DC: 81° (old record: 78°, 1874)
Wilmington, NC: 86° (old record: 82°, 2022) ***New February Record***

Temperatures will run generally above normal through the much of the remainder of February. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February, though the weekend could start off with a fairly sharp cold shot.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels.

The guidance has grown milder for the first week of March. The EPS now suggests readings could wind up above normal. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could transition toward a colder regime that could last into the closing week of March.

In terms of snowfall prospects, a reasonable window of opportunity exists during the February 28-March 1 timeframe. EPS ensemble members have recently consolidated around that timeframe with about half of members showing 1" or more in New York City. Central New England and northern New England could see substantial snowfall. Odds favor a light snowfall in New York City and Newark, should it occur.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was -16.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.098 today.

On February 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.329 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.543 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.3° (5.4° above normal).

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yep and to think we are close to the northeast and average way less than alot of places .

We live in the northeast. Did you mean New England?

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

It snowed a few inches near Augusta ME this morning, but even they are way below normal if my info is correct.

Below normal in southern ME but not terribly so. Portland ME has 34" for the season, their average up to now is 49". Gray ME which is near Portland has 42.7", their average up to now is 59". But both sites are doing better than this time last year. Concord NH has 37.6", their average up to now is 48.7".

It does get substantially worse in SNE-Boston has 9.7" so far but I think that clears their all time worst for snow and they're golden for a significant event from the Tue event unless it totally craps the bed which I guess is possible. So by this time next week it's likely they're over 20" which is still quite lousy for them but even proportionally to average much better than we'll be if we get another washout. 

Other New England spots:

-Hartford: 9.9" so far

-Worcester: 21.0" so far

-Providence: 4.9" so far

[Cfa]

39/37 split today. 0.06” of mist. Backdoor Cold Front vibes. Today was more than enough winter for me. I’m done.

[George001]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

CMC cuts it too so I believe it. If there's a last hurrah it'll be in the March 5-20 period unless models trend favorably for the 28th.  

Ensembles show heights rising across the entire arctic & Alaska after March 5. 

West trough is still there but by then it has a lot less relevance. 

The models cut the Miller B coming this Tuesday as well. With the blocking that will also turn into a Miller B.

[George001]

37 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Below normal in southern ME but not terribly so. Portland ME has 34" for the season, their average up to now is 49". Gray ME which is near Portland has 42.7", their average up to now is 59". But both sites are doing better than this time last year. Concord NH has 37.6", their average up to now is 48.7".

It does get substantially worse in SNE-Boston has 9.7" so far but I think that clears their all time worst for snow and they're golden for a significant event from the Tue event unless it totally craps the bed which I guess is possible. So by this time next week it's likely they're over 20" which is still quite lousy for them but even proportionally to average much better than we'll be if we get another washout. 

Other New England spots:

-Hartford: 9.9" so far

-Worcester: 21.0" so far

-Providence: 4.9" so far

Boston will be above average by the end of the winter. I think Boston ends up with 50-60.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

53 minutes ago, George001 said:

Boston will be above average by the end of the winter. I think Boston ends up with 50-60.

I seriously doubt it, but if it did happen I’m sure those of us in the HV would do pretty well too. With that said it wouldn’t save this Winter for me. A month of winter in March and a week in April wouldn’t undo three and half months of total crap. 

[MJO812]

Nice shift south on eps

[Nibor]

59 minutes ago, George001 said:

Boston will be above average by the end of the winter. I think Boston ends up with 50-60.

[MJO812]

[George001]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I seriously doubt it, but if it did happen I’m sure those of us in the HV would do pretty well too. With that said it wouldn’t save this Winter for me. A month of winter in March and a week in April wouldn’t undo three and half months of total crap. 

That’s completely fair, and honestly I somewhat agree. 50-60 is above average for Boston but it isn’t crazy or anything (though getting to that from where we are now would be kind of nuts). I’d rather get a 50 inch winter with cold and an established snowpack than nothing and making it up in March, but at this point the former isn’t an option. It’s not really about saving the winter for me, it’s more about making the best of a bad winter. If we make the best of a bad winter by getting an epic March that takes the Boston area to 50 inches on the season, I’ll be very happy with that. I don’t consider last winter to have been a good winter, but I loved every bit of that late Jan blizzard that gave me 20 inches of snow.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s completely fair, and honestly I somewhat agree. 50-60 is above average for Boston but it isn’t crazy or anything (though getting to that from where we are now would be kind of nuts). I’d rather get a 50 inch winter with cold and an established snowpack than nothing and making it up in March, but at this point the former isn’t an option. It’s not really about saving the winter for me, it’s more about making the best of a bad winter. If we make the best of a bad winter by getting an epic March that takes the Boston area to 50 inches on the season, I’ll be very happy with that. I don’t consider last winter to have been a good winter, but I loved every bit of that late Jan blizzard that gave me 20 inches of snow.

I highly doubt it but Godspeed I guess. My guess is they end up between 25-30" but you're right that it's relatively easy for you guys to go on a crazy few week run. 

On their way there hopefully we peasants down here can be granted a day or two with enough snow to cover the grass, that will stay for more than the hour long intervals we've had a coating so far. I'll be more than happy to settle with that. And then hopefully not shiver in months of backdoor fronts like we suffered the last two springs. 

[Franklin0529]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Get that block a little more stronger an we're in the game. Shit I'd even take a 2-4" storm in this disaster of a winter 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I highly doubt it but Godspeed I guess. My guess is they end up between 25-30" but you're right that it's relatively easy for you guys to go on a crazy few week run. 

On their way there hopefully we peasants down here can be granted a day or two with enough snow to cover the grass, that will stay for more than the hour long intervals we've had a coating so far. I'll be more than happy to settle with that. And then hopefully not shiver in months of backdoor fronts like we suffered the last two springs. 

Not looking too promising there. Euro weeklies get chilly 2nd week onward too. 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What's more relevant for us are the lows shown headed NW of Buffalo. Not sure what the trend over time with those has been but I've never seen a good outcome here where we have a low in the 980s headed NW of Buffalo. We want that low to be dying off way sooner than that. You also have to look at the individual members for snow to see if a few crazy members are throwing the mean off. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

What's more relevant for us are the lows shown headed NW of Buffalo. Not sure what the trend over time with those has been but I've never seen a good outcome here where we have a low in the 980s headed NW of Buffalo. We want that low to be dying off way sooner than that. You also have to look at the individual members for snow to see if a few crazy members are throwing the mean off. 

We need the low to transfer sooner