Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro 12-15 Boston Nyc 0 brutal Wouldn't be surprised if by storm time it's mixing issues for Boston and 12-15 for NNE the way this winter is going but hope this one doesn't trend that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Pretty terrible for Brooklyn, Queens, SI, and Manhattan. I guess not that terrible everywhere else, what a gradient near the city. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022312&fh=144&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=sn10_acc-imp&m=ecmwf_full And keep in mind that's a total snowfall map, not a 24 hour one. So some the accumulation you see on that map is actually the snow that Euro is showing saturday. This run is showing almost nothing for NYC for next week's storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: It's just the beginning of the Blocking period which usually favors the NE given the block is still east based. Our window is after. Euro and CMC both cut inland on 3/4 so not seeing any signs of real change. I know you mentioned the 3/10-3/20 period being the chance so hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, psv88 said: 37 on the island with mist. Terrible! On 2/22/2023 at 10:26 AM, jm1220 said: So DC gets the summer like warmth, I-90 to Boston gets the winter storm, we get the lousy raw crap with drizzle. Sounds about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Euro and CMC both cut inland on 3/4 so not seeing any signs of real change. I know you mentioned the 3/10-3/20 period being the chance so hope so. Yeah that 3/4 should cut. Still too early. I would not expect anything till around the 10th for the 10 to 15 day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No worries a big cutter washes it all away a few days later. Euro likes to overamp storms but with this winter who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: If this winter’s not an F I can’t think of one that possibly could be. Flowers shooting up in mid February and bugs everywhere sitting on generously 1.5” for the season and no real threat to speak of (I don’t consider 2/28 a real threat yet where I am unless by some miracle it trends away from being another crap SWFE). Whatever takes this horse behind the barn and puts it out of its misery sooner, the better. GTFO “Winter” 22-23. The worms all over my driveway this morning did it for me. I strongly agree with your sentiment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro likes to overamp storms but with this winter who knows CMC cuts it too so I believe it. If there's a last hurrah it'll be in the March 5-20 period unless models trend favorably for the 28th. Ensembles show heights rising across the entire arctic & Alaska after March 5. West trough is still there but by then it has a lot less relevance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro likes to overamp storms but with this winter who knows We've had a winter full of storms like these that cut for the lakes. Makes perfect sense. The one difference here is that there's half decent confluence/blocking around, but if it's wilting away as it approaches it does us zero good. But it does Boston plenty of good since they have much more wiggle room due to the high placement and preceding blocking, and their climo does the rest with their much better outcomes in miller B situations and plenty of decent SWFE outcomes too. Unless there's a huge wrinkle they're golden for a warning event, and that's on the low end. Bottom line is as I've said we need this Nina to be gone. We technically have a chance at this where we are but my bet would be for another garbage outcome like the rest unless you're N and especially NE of the city a good 50+ miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We've had a winter full of storms like these that cut for the lakes. Makes perfect sense. The one difference here is that there's half decent confluence/blocking around, but if it's wilting away as it approaches it does us zero good. But it does Boston plenty of good since they have much more wiggle room due to the high placement and preceding blocking, and their climo does the rest with their much better outcomes in miller B situations and plenty of decent SWFE outcomes too. Unless there's a huge wrinkle they're golden for a warning event, and that's on the low end. Bottom line is as I've said we need this Nina to be gone. We technically have a chance at this where we are but my bet would be for another garbage outcome like the rest unless you're N and especially NE of the city a good 50+ miles. Yea most likely the blocking will just mean 30s and rain instead of 50s and rain. I def think you are in better shape north shore of LI than the city is with this one for some front end frozen but that's about it. I'd probably want to be NE of a line from around White Plains to maybe north shore of Suffolk County to see any meaningful frozen precip with this. The HV is a wild card because depends on the mid levels, they could do well with this or could end up a complete sleetfest there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 36 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Pretty sure the UK is still 2nd, although those model verification scores are typically based on 500 mbar temps/pressures, iirc, and I don't know if we have accuracy scores on what all of us want, i.e., on NE US winter storms (I've asked some pros before and nobody has said we have that kind of data). I noticed the last few years there were quite a few winter storm threats in which the UKMET looked much different than the other models, and it usually ended up being wrong. I remember it being better in the past, but it seems that lately it has been a crazy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: I noticed the last few years there were quite a few winter storm threats in which the UKMET looked much different than the other models, and it usually ended up being wrong. I remember it being better in the past, but it seems that lately it has been a crazy model. Same impression I have. I don't have data but it just seems to often show whacky solutions and be wrong in the last two winters. Btw it cut back a lot on snow for Sat it looks like (no surprise). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'm tired of these Miller Bs and their primary lows that hang on juuuust long enough for us to get a cold rain/mix. Do Miller As exist anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 36 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea most likely the blocking will just mean 30s and rain instead of 50s and rain. I def think you are in better shape north shore of LI than the city is with this one for some front end frozen but that's about it. I'd probably want to be NE of a line from around White Plains to maybe north shore of Suffolk County to see any meaningful frozen precip with this. The HV is a wild card because depends on the mid levels, they could do well with this or could end up a complete sleetfest there. Could be okay here for a couple hours but as I said if it’s sleet to rain I’d rather it just not happen. You’re right about the Hudson Valley but so far if you’re I-84 and N it’s been looking good. However in these the sleet always makes it further north than expected at this point especially if we’re still dealing with the strong primary driving mid level warmth in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I guess to wrap up the upcoming period, storms will have a tendency to cut until the RNA stops pumping the SE ridge. Approx timing March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 NAM just came in better for saturday. It gives parts of the area a half inch to inch of snow. As SnowGoose said, we'll watch to see if the models increase the overrunning precip a little as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 NAM now shows snow for most of the area later Saturday and into the nighttime . It’s actually kinda comical looking at hr 54 between the 12z and 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The absolute worst spot to be in. Make it end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Temps underperforming today meanwhile it's 80 in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Temps underperforming today meanwhile it's 80 in DC. Yup been stuck at 39 pretty much all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 This is what I was alluding to earlier. Starts to get real interesting at this point.15 days away….do we really believe the -PNA just goes away or is this yet another day 15 “great pattern” mirage on the ensembles? I can definitely buy the -NAO, but the PNA flip? Color me very skeptical 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: 15 days away….do we really believe the -PNA just goes away or is this yet another day 15 “great pattern” mirage on the ensembles? I can definitely buy the -NAO, but the PNA flip? Color me very skeptical As Dons stats alluded to it needs to breach a SD of -1. That works fine without needed to go full positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I guess to wrap up the upcoming period, storms will have a tendency to cut until the RNA stops pumping the SE ridge. Approx timing March 10. I wouldn't be surprised if this entire -NAO occurs with equally bad Pacific until it breaks.. That +EPO projected for March 1-3 is really strong. Models give a small window around March 10th of a -epo connecting with -nao ridge, but if the Pacific gets good, we might expect a +nao to coincide. (I have a -NAO signal until March 19th, but maybe that will be wrong if the Pac is good.) I think we look a little bit better overall for March 8-19, but it will be interesting because the NAO-Pacific inverse correlation shows no signs of going anywhere, at least in the medium range, at the start of this -NAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Could be okay here for a couple hours but as I said if it’s sleet to rain I’d rather it just not happen. You’re right about the Hudson Valley but so far if you’re I-84 and N it’s been looking good. However in these the sleet always makes it further north than expected at this point especially if we’re still dealing with the strong primary driving mid level warmth in. Given that primary, parent low cutting into the lakes and the still absolutely horrible PAC at the time I would not at all be surprised if the primary holds on longer than what is currently being modeled and 2/28 turns into a mainly rain event south of I-84. If those mid level low tracks are correct, the mid level torch is being grossly underestimated by the models right now, which is typical at this range. This could easily turn into a SWFE by the end of the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: NAM just came in better for saturday. It gives parts of the area a half inch to inch of snow. As SnowGoose said, we'll watch to see if the models increase the overrunning precip a little as it gets closer. It's just so pathetic that this even warrants commenting on. Such is the state of the Winter that never was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 GFS a little better with the secondary but the primary kills our snow chances, congrats NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Terrible trend https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022306&fh=138&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs vs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022318&fh=126&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Terrible trend https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022306&fh=138&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs vs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2023022318&fh=126&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=gfs Yep not looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 North trend continues. Slipping away. To think the NE posters were worried about suppression! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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