February 2023

[gravitylover]

Emotionally I'd prefer it doesn't snow (much) from here on out. After such a nothingburger of a winter I'd like to see it be an outright failure and set the futility record. I also need good weather for my business to succeed, if it snows now all it will do is push any chance I have of earning anything off until May. 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All it takes is for the 50/50 to be weaker than shown and it's a bust so I'm treading carefully. 

48 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don’t think we can hit normal at this point at least NYC and south, climo is just too against this area in March. The northern suburbs to Boston could rake in a pattern like this if all goes well. 

The thing is in this climate we can have record warm months and still somehow get a storm or two that gives us all our seasonal snows. 

Not saying that's likely but it also wouldn't shock me. 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I’ll have to look into some of the data and Bluewave would know much better, but it took near record blocking IIRC to get the 2/1/21 Miller B to work out for NYC. It really takes some doing/luck for these redevelopers to work out for most of us. They certainly can but like I said it’s like drawing an inside straight. If the blocking really will be significant we have a chance. If it starts to wilt as the storm approaches we’re screwed. 

[Winterweatherlover]

12z gfs looks good but definitely a tight gradient just to the south so hard to feel too confident. 

[mikem81]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

12z gfs looks good but definitely a tight gradient just to the south so hard to feel too confident. 

primary made it much farther north. not a great look

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

primary made it much farther north. not a great look

Yea secondary looks weak, east  and meandering too which isn’t ideal. The snow looks all front end/swfe type setup this run 

[Winterweatherlover]

Such a fine line because we want secondary to develop and blocking to make it not hug the coast but if it’s too Far East and squashed we will have temp issues with a primary in the lakes. Miller bs are tough. 

[winterwx21]

12z CMC is sleet changing to rain for our area. 

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z CMC is sleet changing to rain for our area. 

Verbatim looks improved over its 0Z run. The front end snow backed SW a bit, has 1-3 inches for most of LI and immediately north of the city. 
 

The low north of Toronto and a flatter secondary is not a good look though. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Verbatim looks improved over its 0Z run. The front end snow backed SW a bit, has 1-3 inches for most of LI and immediately north of the city. 
 

The low north of Toronto and a flatter secondary is not a good look though. 

Can’t think of a time that setup has ever worked for us-a well defined primary making it into Canada. If it trends into a run of the mill SWFE I’ll take a hard pass. 

[SnoSki14]

Models showing the same garbage we've seen all season. No surprise there 

[SnowGoose69]

I like the weekend overrunning better than I like the 28th event lol and that ain't saying much.  Talk to me about the storm later next week once perhaps confluence and blocking is more established but I'd be surprised if even places like central CT saw big snows from this event, the primary low due to the pattern is probably gonna get too far north for the confluence to matter much.  I could still see the weekend event producing an inch of snow in parts of the area despite models being paltry as of now on QPF

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can’t think of a time that setup has ever worked for us-a well defined primary making it into Canada. If it trends into a run of the mill SWFE I’ll take a hard pass. 

Agree I think I once heard a saying that if the primary gets north of Ohio its usually over for NYC and points south. I seem to be in the minority here though over being ok/borderline excited for a possible 1-3 inch event, it's been that bad of a winter. 

 

I could also see how this could turn into just sleet to rain though. 

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Verbatim looks improved over its 0Z run. The front end snow backed SW a bit, has 1-3 inches for most of LI and immediately north of the city. 
 

The low north of Toronto and a flatter secondary is not a good look though. 

Don't forget to use Kuchera and not include the small amount of snow it's showing for saturday. This CMC run is showing maybe an inch or two of snow for Long Island and slightly north of NYC. It's mainly sleet. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree I think I once heard a saying that if the primary gets north of Ohio its usually over for NYC and points south. I seem to be in the minority here though over being ok/borderline excited for a 1-3 inch event, it's been that bad of a winter. 

 

If the high is more south it can work but that high is just way too far N and E IMO.  Even then you still changeover but in this setup I'd be surprised if NYC did better than just some PL at the start of the event 

[Winterweatherlover]

3/4 looks great on the GFS, just 9 days away. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Its happened before at least for CPK.  One storm did it in 2006 and another in 2016.  I think 27 inches was 'normal' for CPK at the time.  The question is, if we get normal snowfall in one week, how do we rate this winter overall?  This is an F+ winter to date only because a T was recorded a couple times at CPK and December was below normal temps, hence the +.

What an easy marker you are.

So the worst winter so far in New York City history and you give it an F+? I don’t see how it’s anything other than an F minus right now. It’s actually so bad we should create the letter G just to grade this winter. 

if somehow New York City received 30 inches of snow in March to bring it a normal snowfall winter, and temperatures in March actually were normal or slightly below the top grade that could be achieved right now is a D, and that’s best case scenario. In my opinion of course.

I live 50 miles north of New York City so I grade my winters differently. I want at least 45 days of snow cover, average snowfall and average temperatures for a season to receive a B minus. With 8 inches of snowfall so far and snow cover for six days, and no ice to speak of, and above normal temperatures pretty much straight for two months, this is a G- right now. 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I like the weekend overrunning better than I like the 28th event lol and that ain't saying much.  Talk to me about the storm later next week once perhaps confluence and blocking is more established but I'd be surprised if even places like central CT saw big snows from this event, the primary low due to the pattern is probably gonna get too far north for the confluence to matter much.  I could still see the weekend event producing an inch of snow in parts of the area despite models being paltry as of now on QPF

Everything improves around the 10th, when the AO drops, the PNA rises and the MJO goes into 8 at a good amplitude.

Before then will be tough.

Not comparing intensity, however 2018 went through the same progression where north and East scored early and South and West scored late into April.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

If the high is more south it can work but that high is just way too far N and E IMO.  Even then you still changeover but in this setup I'd be surprised if NYC did better than just some PL at the start of the event 

Not to mention a 985 low in northern Michigan-that's usually not a recipe for snow in NYC or even CT

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree I think I once heard a saying that if the primary gets north of Ohio its usually over for NYC and points south. I seem to be in the minority here though over being ok/borderline excited for a possible 1-3 inch event, it's been that bad of a winter. 

 

I could also see how this could turn into just sleet to rain though. 

I also can’t count how many times the models incorrectly at this stage showed a big thump of snow SE of a closed 700/850 low when in reality it’s maybe an hour of good snow before sleet then rain because they don’t see the fast mid level warming. If the trend is toward a longer lasting and north primary, odds for those of us outside well N areas are about done for anything more than a quick thump that quickly washes away. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I also can’t count how many times the models incorrectly at this stage showed a big thump of snow SE of a closed 700/850 low when in reality it’s maybe an hour of good snow before sleet then rain because they don’t see the fast mid level warming. If the trend is toward a longer lasting and north primary, odds for those of us outside well N areas are about done for anything more than a quick thump that quickly washes away. 

In this case the airmass in place before might actually allow for a lengthy period of snow in areas which begin as snow in SNE.  The wildly fast flip from SN to PL usually only happens in SWFE type events where you have a majorly stale airmass in place or one that is not that cold but in this case if you're in Worcester for example its established for awhile 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Everything improves around the 10th, when the AO drops, the PNA rises and the MJO goes into 8 at a good amplitude.

Before then will be tough.

Not comparing intensity, however 2018 went through the same progression where north and East scored early and South and West scored late into April.

I'd rather us just torch and be completely done with this god awful winter. 

The blocking will just make March/April miserable. 

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I also can’t count how many times the models incorrectly at this stage showed a big thump of snow SE of a closed 700/850 low when in reality it’s maybe an hour of good snow before sleet then rain because they don’t see the fast mid level warming. If the trend is toward a longer lasting and north primary, odds for those of us outside well N areas are about done for anything more than a quick thump that quickly washes away. 

Definitely. A lot of times 1-3 inches becomes 1-3 flakes to sleet to rain. Sometimes it does actually work out though.

We are all I think somewhat jaded by a winter where it has not worked out once.

[gravitylover]

9 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

What an easy marker you are.
 

So the worst winter so far in New York City history and you give it an F+? I don’t see how it’s anything other than an F minus right now. It’s actually so bad we should create the letter G just to grade this winter. 
 

if somehow New York City received 30 inches of snow in March to bring it a normal snowfall winter, and temperatures in March actually were normal or slightly below the top grade that could be achieved right now is a D, and that’s best case scenario. In my opinion of course.
 

I live 50 miles north of New York City so I grade my winters differently. I want at least 45 days of snow cover, average snowfall and average temperatures for a season to receive a B minus. With 8 inches of snowfall so far and snow cover for six days, and no ice to speak of, and above the normal temperatures pretty much straight for two months, this is a G- right now. 

I don't see how it can be any better than an F. Even if we get a few days that look wintry the next few weeks they'll be nothing better than a hassle and we know it's just mud underneath. The grass is green today and it's February 

[EastonSN+]

So far for 12z

GFS cut back a bit on the snow.

CMC increased a bit on the snow.

Let's see the ensembles and ECMWF before making a conclusion on 12z.

 

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

So far for 12z

GFS cut back a bit on the snow.

CMC increased a bit on the snow.

Let's see the ensembles and ECMWF before making a conclusion on 12z.

 

UKMET def came south

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I don't see how it can be any better than an F. Even if we get a few days that look wintry the next few weeks they'll be nothing better than a hassle and we know it's just mud underneath. The grass is green today and it's February 

If this winter’s not an F I can’t think of one that possibly could be. Flowers shooting up in mid February and bugs everywhere sitting on generously 1.5” for the season and no real threat to speak of (I don’t consider 2/28 a real threat yet where I am unless by some miracle it trends away from being another crap SWFE). Whatever takes this horse behind the barn and puts it out of its misery sooner, the better. GTFO “Winter” 22-23. 

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If this winter’s not an F I can’t think of one that possibly could be. Flowers shooting up in mid February and bugs everywhere sitting on generously 1.5” for the season and no real threat to speak of (I don’t consider 2/28 a real threat yet where I am unless by some miracle it trends away from being another crap SWFE). Whatever takes this horse behind the barn and puts it out of its misery sooner, the better. GTFO “Winter” 22-23. 

well twice nyc got into the single digits at night a rare occurence lately..

[winterwx21]

41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I like the weekend overrunning better than I like the 28th event lol and that ain't saying much.  Talk to me about the storm later next week once perhaps confluence and blocking is more established but I'd be surprised if even places like central CT saw big snows from this event, the primary low due to the pattern is probably gonna get too far north for the confluence to matter much.  I could still see the weekend event producing an inch of snow in parts of the area despite models being paltry as of now on QPF

A little frustrating that the models have one batch of precip missing us to the north saturday and another batch missing to the south. We could be the screw zone in the middle with just flurries here. Not that it would be anything more than a minor event, but it would be nice to take advantage of the rare cold air saturday and have a wintry day with a little accumulating snow. Not looking good right now, but as you said there's still a chance. Enough time for it to trend back to being a half inch to 1 inch light snow event for us.