February 2023

[North and West]

Touch south

Eh, why would it change now, you know? If it’s snowing in the hills outside of Sacramento and L.A. after snowing Las Vegas in Tucson… it’s not going to work out here. I’ve seen this movie before.




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[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And the GFS is very likely too far south with 2/28. Its bias at play again. A CMC scenario is the most likely outcome

Bias? The GFS was well north 2-3 cycles ago against the CMC & Euro. 

I still think this is mostly SNE storm but you're not being objective 

Additionally the strengthening confluence is real. Will it be enough down here? I lean no but the trend is legit. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Records : One year ago record highs in much of the region and chill 8 years ago in 2015.

HIghs:

 

EWR: 70 (2022)
NYC: 72 (1874)
LGA: 68 (2022)
 

 

Lows:

LGA: 8 (2015)
EWR: 7 (2015)
NYC: 5 (1889)

Historical:

1802 - A great snowstorm raged along the New England coast producing 48 inches of snow north of Boston. Three large ships from Salem were wrecked along Cape Cod. (David Ludlum)

1936 - A severe blizzard in the Sierra Nevada Range closed Donner Pass. It stranded 750 motorists and claimed seven lives. (David Ludlum)

1977: A rare February tornado touched down briefly in Mason City, Iowa, inflicting F1 damage on a home and injuring one person inside. This is the only known February tornado on record in Iowa.

1987 - A winter storm buried the Middle Atlantic Coast Region under heavy snow. Totals ranged up to 24 inches at Lancaster PA, with 23 inches at Coatesville PA. During the height of the storm Philadelphia PA received five inches of snow in just one hour. The Washington D.C. area was blanketed with up to 15 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northwesterly winds ushered arctic air into the central U.S., and temperatures in Missouri were thirty degrees colder than the previous day. The strong winds produced squalls along the shore of Lake Superior, with up to 15 inches of snow reported over the Keweenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Nineteen cities in the central U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, including Lincoln NE with a reading of 19 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A fast moving storm produced near blizzard conditions in Michigan. Snowfall totals ranged up to 9.5 inches in Allegan County, wind gusts reached 74 mph at Ann Arbor, and five foot snow drifts were reported around Saginaw. The Michigan AAA records showed more than 5000 traffic accidents reported, a near record for one day. There were several chain reaction collisions. One near Pontiac involved a hundred cars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

 

Amazing how cold 2015 was this late in the season!

Do you have the last single digit low that occurred at NYC, JFK, LGA, EWR? Was it on the 28th?  Also when was the last time these locations had a single digit low in March?  Thanks!

[SRRTA22]

If we make it to normal snowfall Im gonna lose my ****  

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

A warm front will stall near or just south of New York City. Along that front, it will be mostly cloudy. Some light rain or drizzle is possible. South of the front, it will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas near the stalled front. South of the front, readings will soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 51°

Philadelphia: 71°

A sharp but brief cold shot is likely this weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.2°; 15-Year: 46.1°

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

A warm front will stall near or just south of New York City. Along that front, it will be mostly cloudy. Some light rain or drizzle is possible. South of the front, it will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas near the stalled front. South of the front, readings will soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 48°

Newark: 51°

Philadelphia: 71°

A sharp but brief cold shot is likely this weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.2°; 15-Year: 46.1°

The best thing about this cold shot is it will clear all this junk out of the area.

 

[Tatamy]

06z GFS has me down for nearly 30” over its run.  I have earthworms all over my driveway this morning (In February?!).  I’m inclined to sell the GFS and take the worms on this one.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Bias? The GFS was well north 2-3 cycles ago against the CMC & Euro. 

I still think this is mostly SNE storm but you're not being objective 

Additionally the strengthening confluence is real. Will it be enough down here? I lean no but the trend is legit. 

I’m most interested in seeing that trend with the confluence than anything else. It’s the only way those of us SW of I-84 in CT have a real shot at this. And the confluence needs to stay in place and not scoot out as the low approaches. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what was the final 2001-02 average DJF temperature?

If we finish second to it in temperature but have less snow than it, we will achieve a higher score than it, correct?

 

That’s the average through February 22. We could finish first if we don’t get much additional snowfall.

[MJO812]

MJO on the Euro going into 8 at a good amplitude 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

MJO on the Euro going into 8 at a good amplitude 

Snowman showed that 8 is not GREAT in March in a La Nina, BUT it's far colder than 7 and we can snow in 8. 

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Snowman showed that 8 is not GREAT in March in a La Nina, BUT it's far colder than 7 and we can snow in 8. 

It has been trying to go into 8 for months lol

[EastonSN+]

52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s the average through February 22. We could finish first if we don’t get much additional snowfall.

Thanks Don. Could we extend the table/record to include March?

Not trying to create extra work, however I feel like a lot of our dud winters have good Marches like 91/92/2019 etc...

Thanks!

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It has been trying to go into 8 for months lol

What's interesting is it's heading into 8 at a very high amplitude. La Nina forcing was weakening the waves all year in 7/8. Interesting this looks legit. Perhaps due to la Nina slowly weakening?

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

And the GFS is very likely too far south with 2/28. Its bias at play again. A CMC scenario is the most likely outcome

Probably, and there will be a large SW/NE gradient across this sub forum (I am in CT so a little more optimistic).

Still I would take CMC for the entire period. Better than what we have seen.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    36degs.(31/42) or -2.

Month to date is      42.4[+7.1].          February should end at       41.0[+5.1].

Reached  47 here at 10am yesterday.

Today:  43-47, wind e. to s. to w., cloudy, drizzle, 36 tomorrow AM.

Never really reached 100% at any time this season.      

42*(84%RH) here at 6am{was 40* at 3:30am}     41* at 7am.        45* at Noon.      47* at 2pm.   Reached 48* at 3:30am.      45* at 5pm.

[jm1220]

8 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

To be honest storms haven't been working out too well for Boston either this winter so I don't think we've had a lot of true SWFE events this winter. It's mostly been cutters. I agree an SWFE is not too great for us but 1-3 inches to mix to light rain would be way better than anything we've had.  

Boston is having a lousy winter but not completely shut out like we are and they have as good a chance as anyone with this upcoming setup-unless something seriously goes wrong with this early next week storm they’re in for at least a solid warning event. Nina winters in general work out just fine for most of New England and are on balance probably better than El Niño especially stronger Ninos because SWFE events which Nina’s send trains of work out way better there. 07-08 was a great New England winter but totally sucked in NYC for that reason. 

At this point I couldn’t care less about 1-3” to rain that washes it away 2 hours later. If that’s what we get I’d be annoyed if anything since we wouldn’t get the #1 least snowy winter spot. I’d be at least rooting on some kind of record to end this utter disaster. 

[EastonSN+]

For the 10th of March and beyond, 

PNA rises

AO drops

MJO moves to phase 8 at a good amplitude

Now, I know about sun angle, snowfall hostility in March in urban areas ETC, however CPK has had accumulating snows in April. Something to keep an eye on for the 10th to 20th time period. 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. Could we extend the table/record to include March?

Not trying to create extra work, however I feel like a lot of our dud winters have good Marches like 91/92/2019 etc...

Thanks!

Here's what it looked like with March included. 2022-2023 isn't in March, so it doesn't appear on the chart.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's what it looked like with March included. 2022-2023 isn't in March, so it doesn't appear on the chart.

Thanks so much Don!

This period coming up has the most potential since December. Would be nice to see the ground covered again!

[Winterweatherlover]

Would like to see cmc come on board for 2/28 before getting too hopeful as Canadian models have been good this winter. 

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

If we make it to normal snowfall Im gonna lose my ****  

Its happened before at least for CPK.  One storm did it in 2006 and another in 2016.  I think 27 inches was 'normal' for CPK at the time.  The question is, if we get normal snowfall in one week, how do we rate this winter overall?  This is an F+ winter to date only because a T was recorded a couple times at CPK and December was below normal temps, hence the +.

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Its happened before at least for CPK.  One storm did it in 2006 and another in 2016.  I think 27 inches was 'normal' for CPK at the time.  The question is, if we get normal snowfall in one week, how do we rate this winter overall?  This is an F+ winter to date only because a T was recorded a couple times at CPK and December was below normal temps, hence the +.

I don’t think we can hit normal at this point at least NYC and south, climo is just too against this area in March. The northern suburbs to Boston could rake in a pattern like this if all goes well. 

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don’t think we can hit normal at this point at least NYC and south, climo is just too against this area in March. The northern suburbs to Boston could rake in a pattern like this if all goes well. 

I would not bet on it with real money, true.  However, it can certainly be done! CPK needs 29.7 inches (or something like that) now, and I don't see 2 foot plus storms and then a moderate snowstorm happening.  20 would be a miracle.  

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don’t think we can hit normal at this point at least NYC and south, climo is just too against this area in March. The northern suburbs to Boston could rake in a pattern like this if all goes well. 

I'm up at HPN and I think I need 40 to get to 'normal.'  Taking the under.  

[donsutherland1]

The temperature order has been shattered. After spending the first 9 hours of the day at 38°, New York City saw the temperature rise to 39° at 10 am. Perhaps, that's a reminder that nothing is permanent, not even the seemingly endless snow drought plaguing parts the region.

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I would not bet on it with real money, true.  However, it can certainly be done! CPK needs 29.7 inches (or something like that) now, and I don't see 2 foot plus storms and then a moderate snowstorm happening.  20 would be a miracle.  

I’d consider 10” to be a miracle at this point. Even for my backyard that averages about 35”. I have just over 1” so far lol. We’re almost in March and we just can’t expect much despite the bonanzas like March 2018. 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d consider 10” to be a miracle at this point. Even for my backyard that averages about 35”. I have just over 1” so far lol. We’re almost in March and we just can’t expect much despite the bonanzas like March 2018. 

How much snow did nyc get in the famous March 2018? I know the city got shafted a lot compared to other areas nearby. 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d consider 10” to be a miracle at this point. Even for my backyard that averages about 35”. I have just over 1” so far lol. We’re almost in March and we just can’t expect much despite the bonanzas like March 2018. 

Never know though a couple of 6-10 inch events and all the sudden we're close.  Given the blocking and SSW I have better hope than I would otherwise....

[Franklin0529]

This storm on the 28th needs to be watched.  That block means business, with the nao trending strongest its been since December.  I wouldn't be shocked if this keeps coming south.