winterwx21 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, eduggs said: The mid-level track and snowfall distribution for next week's modeled event look a lot like several storms we had earlier this year. Run to run consistency is good for central NE, but not as encouraging for us. Yeah not one time has it worked out for us this winter when the models showed a borderline situation for the NYC area. They always have trended warmer, so it's hard to be encouraged about this threat. I would want to see some real cold air in place with the models showing snow to the south, instead of NYC being near the edge. Hopefully something will work out in early March (the pattern does look a little better), but I'll be surprised if this one works out. Right now it looks like an event for north and west of NYC. We certainly need to keep an eye on it though, just in case. Can't rule it out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Well, some on this forum would be happy during next couple weeks. Sorry Brooklyn:( it's climo dude, our snow season here usually ends with February. People to the north do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: Why would people in Brooklyn be unhappy? That’s 3x more snow than they’ve had lol winter. would be like 0 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: would be like 0 here lol In a potential gradient type pattern like this the differences between southern and northern parts of the subforum could be pretty huge in the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 hours ago, Cfa said: Stronger than I was expecting. 115 mph, 6 miles on the ground 200 yards wide path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Right, this is not the kind of set up where we see a significant snow storm There's a way this one COULD work out for people beyond CT and the far N folks but it would take an inside straight or flush. Many more ways for Syracuse to Boston to get it to work. That simple when we're sweating a SWFE/strong Lakes low somehow transferring over in time. We really need this Nina garbage which keeps promoting these setups to GTFO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 hours ago, ILoveWinter said: Doesn't have to be "major", most of us in the immediate NYC metro would be happy with a few inches. depends if its at the end or the beginning, if its a few inches that quickly gets washed away-- no thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: There's a way this one COULD work out for people beyond CT and the far N folks but it would take an inside straight or flush. Many more ways for Syracuse to Boston to get it to work. That simple when we're sweating a SWFE/strong Lakes low somehow transferring over in time. We really need this Nina garbage which keeps promoting these setups to GTFO. To be honest storms haven't been working out too well for Boston either this winter so I don't think we've had a lot of true SWFE events this winter. It's mostly been cutters. I agree an SWFE is not too great for us but 1-3 inches to mix to light rain would be way better than anything we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: depends if its at the end or the beginning, if its a few inches that quickly gets washed away-- no thanks I mean if its snow to 50 degrees and/or heavy rain then I agree but if it's snow to sleet to light rain/drizzle i'm ok with that. I guess in the latter scenario I'm assuming it doesn't all get washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: In a potential gradient type pattern like this the differences between southern and northern parts of the subforum could be pretty huge in the next few weeks. It reminds me of December 2005.....0 here, 6 inches for Central Park, double digits in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There's a way this one COULD work out for people beyond CT and the far N folks but it would take an inside straight or flush. Many more ways for Syracuse to Boston to get it to work. That simple when we're sweating a SWFE/strong Lakes low somehow transferring over in time. We really need this Nina garbage which keeps promoting these setups to GTFO. Is this kind of like December 2005 to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 lmao, of course it would show a major storm on the 4th i got a flight to cancun that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The Euro with a monster storm on 3/4. Plows a deeply occluded 958mb low into Illinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The Euro with a monster storm on 3/4. Plows a deeply occluded 958mb low into Illinois And Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Records : One year ago record highs in much of the region and chill 8 years ago in 2015. HIghs: EWR: 70 (2022) NYC: 72 (1874) LGA: 68 (2022) Lows: LGA: 8 (2015) EWR: 7 (2015) NYC: 5 (1889) Historical: 1802 - A great snowstorm raged along the New England coast producing 48 inches of snow north of Boston. Three large ships from Salem were wrecked along Cape Cod. (David Ludlum) 1936 - A severe blizzard in the Sierra Nevada Range closed Donner Pass. It stranded 750 motorists and claimed seven lives. (David Ludlum) 1977: A rare February tornado touched down briefly in Mason City, Iowa, inflicting F1 damage on a home and injuring one person inside. This is the only known February tornado on record in Iowa. 1987 - A winter storm buried the Middle Atlantic Coast Region under heavy snow. Totals ranged up to 24 inches at Lancaster PA, with 23 inches at Coatesville PA. During the height of the storm Philadelphia PA received five inches of snow in just one hour. The Washington D.C. area was blanketed with up to 15 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Strong northwesterly winds ushered arctic air into the central U.S., and temperatures in Missouri were thirty degrees colder than the previous day. The strong winds produced squalls along the shore of Lake Superior, with up to 15 inches of snow reported over the Keweenaw Peninsula of Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Nineteen cities in the central U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, including Lincoln NE with a reading of 19 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - A fast moving storm produced near blizzard conditions in Michigan. Snowfall totals ranged up to 9.5 inches in Allegan County, wind gusts reached 74 mph at Ann Arbor, and five foot snow drifts were reported around Saginaw. The Michigan AAA records showed more than 5000 traffic accidents reported, a near record for one day. There were several chain reaction collisions. One near Pontiac involved a hundred cars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The Euro with a monster storm on 3/4. Plows a deeply occluded 958mb low into Illinois Okay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Touch south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Nice coastal in early March on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is colder at 06z. big increase in the strength of the confluence. what a trend over the last full model cycle It's nice to see continued improvements but it's still very borderline this far south. Given the trends this season I'm not sure it'll be enough. Looks like an excellent late winter pattern for SNE north though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's nice to see continued improvements but it's still very borderline this far south. Given the trends this season I'm not sure it'll be enough. Not all the patterns are the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 22nd: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Okay?Are you a weather fan? Or only a cold and snow fan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not all the patterns are the same You keep saying this but the fact remains that those of us who are close to the ocean and in the southern part of the region ALWAYS GET SCREWED. There's a reason the media always says "NORTH AND WEST" Because that's where all the snow is and will remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: Are you a weather fan? Or only a cold and snow fan? He keeps saying "not all patterns are the same" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 You keep saying this but the fact remains that those of us who are close to the ocean and in the southern part of the region ALWAYS GET SCREWED. There's a reason the media always says "NORTH AND WEST" Because that's where all the snow is and will remain.I resemble that remark.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 22nd: Don what was the final 2001-02 average DJF temperature? If we finish second to it in temperature but have less snow than it, we will achieve a higher score than it, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Touch southAnd the GFS is very likely too far south with 2/28. Its bias at play again. A CMC scenario is the most likely outcome 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, North and West said: I resemble that remark. . You do! Granted this winter has sucked everywhere but it has sucked more for some of us than others. I'm at 0.2 snowfall officially, though unofficially it's probably more like 0.8 Splitting hairs really! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: And the GFS is very likely too far south with 2/28. Its bias at play again. A CMC scenario is the most likely outcome Can you show the CMC please? I want to see how far south it gets with frozen precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now