Tatamy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 18z GFS does happy hour again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 the GEFS is much more favorable... pretty big shift to the EPS with a lot more confluence. increases the snow mean by a ton as a result this is easily the best threat the NYC metro has had all winter. beats late December by a mile 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I have seen worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 41 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 18z GFS does happy hour again. At least this time it has support from the Euro and CMC. A lot can still trend better or worse because NYC seems to be squeezed between all rain to the south and heavy snow to the north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 FIANLLY some weenie maps to gawk at. We've barely even had those this winter- at least I can get my hopes up for a day or two again like back in December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said: I will believe it when it in the 5 day range. The first event will be within day 5 range by 0Z runs tonight. This is the best look we've had although I also realize a lot can go wrong (stronger primary, later transfer, transfer becoming coastal hugger). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 March is the new December? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Euro still has some light snow Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I need to see some follow through with tonight's runs. Either they stay consistent or get better. If they get worse then I wouldn't expect much. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is easily the best threat the NYC metro has had all winter. Agreed. But let's not prematurely get carried away. It's still a so so threat. The mid and low level lows are still modeled to track through the central Great Lakes into southern Ontario. Historically that's a tough setup for the immediate NYC area. The antecedent airmass is also only modestly supportive of wintry precipitation along the coastal plain. But, I really like the trends towards really strong PVA and rapidly developing coastal SLP. I'd like to see the mid-level lows shift a little more southward. Still some work to do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, USCG RS said: classic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 34 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The first event will be within day 5 range by 0Z runs tonight. This is the best look we've had although I also realize a lot can go wrong (stronger primary, later transfer, transfer becoming coastal hugger). I was more talking about the one in the image posted, which would take place the first weekend of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, eduggs said: Agreed. But let's not prematurely get carried away. It's still a so so threat. The mid and low level lows are still modeled to track through the central Great Lakes into southern Ontario. Historically that's a tough setup for the immediate NYC area. The antecedent airmass is also only modestly supportive of wintry precipitation along the coastal plain. But, I really like the trends towards really strong PVA and rapidly developing coastal SLP. I'd like to see the mid-level lows shift a little more southward. Still some work to do. With a low going up in to Ontario, that coastal system better take over fast, and get really wrapped up to bring in cold air. Otherwise it will just be another disappointment for coastal areas. A weak secondary off the coast of NJ won't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Parts of the region experienced light snow, flurries, and sleet as warmer air ahead of an advancing warm front began lifting over a retreating cooler air mass. Additional showers are likely tonight as a warm front approaches from the South. The warm front will likely stay just south of Newark and New York City tomorrow. South of the front, it will be unseasonably warm. The temperature will rocket into the lower and middle 70s in Philadelphia and reach or exceed 80° in Washington, DC. Parts of the Southeast could see daily record and monthly record high temperatures. Already, a number of record highs were set. Record highs included: Atlanta: 81° (old record: 79°, 2018) Louisville: 77° (old record: 76°, 1996) McAllen, TX: 98° (tied record set in 2017) Nashville: 79° (old record: 74°, 1897) Raleigh: 81° (old record: 79°, 2018) Wilmington, NC: 83° (old record: 81°, 2018) Zapata, TX: 98° (old record: 97°, 1996) Temperatures will run generally above normal through the much of the remainder of February. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February, though the weekend could start off with a fairly sharp cold shot. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels. The first week of March could start with generally somewhat below normal temperatures. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could see near normal readings. Uncertainty remains high. In terms of snowfall prospects, a reasonable window of opportunity exists during the February 28-March 1 timeframe. EPS ensemble members have recently consolidated around that timeframe with about half of members showing 1" or more in New York City. Central New England and northern New England could see substantial snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was -17.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.681 today. On February 20 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.542 (RMM). The February 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.719 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.4° (5.5° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said: With a low going up in to Ontario, that coastal system better take over fast, and get really wrapped up to bring in cold air. Otherwise it will just be another disappointment for coastal areas. A weak secondary off the coast of NJ won't do it. I wouldn’t get excited until we’re within 96 hours and probably 72 hours. Any Miller B setup for NYC is very fragile. Could definitely work out but we need strong blocking and some cold air at least better than we’ve had to force redevelopment off the Delmarva and it to be snow. There needs to be a brick wall in place to force that redevelopment in time to save us from going all or mostly rain or fast dry slot. Us-south of I-84 especially west of CT. The "default" with these is that SNE gets buried and we beg/do tricks for some table scraps SW of NYC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I came across this discussion of the Synoptics relating to the Blizzard of 96. It provides a nice overview of the storm and contrasts it to other storms with similar impacts across the area. https://youtu.be/LdFl9ON-tY4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I came across this discussion of the Synoptics relating to the Blizzard of 96. It provides a nice overview of the storm and contrasts it to other storms with similar impacts across the area. https://youtu.be/LdFl9ON-tY4 My man really named an area of storm tracks the 'G Spot' lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The 3k NAM has over 150 inches of snow in some of the mountains NE of LA from the upslope conveyor coming in. At 60hr which is the end of the run the heavy rain is still coming in too. That's overdone but some of the snow totals in those mountains will be obscene with the low snow levels and due SSW upslope flow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 It may never snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 0Z GFS ticked north a bit for 2/28, not much but any tick north is probably not what you want to see the way the winter has been going and the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 0Z CMC is a sleetstorm for the metro area. Late transfer so lots of mid level warming. (it does actually look a touch colder than it's 12z run though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The mid-level track and snowfall distribution for next week's modeled event look a lot like several storms we had earlier this year. Run to run consistency is good for central NE, but not as encouraging for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 0z GFS, CMC, and ICON at least all look potentially threatening for something wintry, particularly for the LHV and CT. Eminently trackable. Just hate when there's a mid-level low to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: 0z GFS, CMC, and ICON at least all look potentially threatening for something wintry, particularly for the LHV and CT. Eminently trackable. Just hate when there's a mid-level low to our NW. In Boston and I-90 corridor which get plenty from SWFE type systems absolutely, and then the buried scenario happens when they have much more time than us for the miller B to crush them. For even the relative table scraps in NYC scenario to work out, the trends for confluence need to get better. If in the next 48 hours we don't see more improvement I'm closing this one out (models so far look about hold-serve, GFS a little worse). Remember also that if anything these SWFE type events trend warmer at the end because models usually don't pick up the mid level warmth until the end. We don't want this to still be a SWFE when it gets here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 25 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 0Z CMC is a sleetstorm for the metro area. Late transfer so lots of mid level warming. (it does actually look a touch colder than it's 12z run though) Big hit next Saturday for everyone. Unfortunately 9 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Big hit next Saturday for everyone. Unfortunately 9 days away GFS/CMC both have a big storm next Saturday. Verbatim looks like snow to mix for the city but precip type doesn't matter this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: At least this time it has support from the Euro and CMC. A lot can still trend better or worse because NYC seems to be squeezed between all rain to the south and heavy snow to the north. will likely be rain here then or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: In Boston and I-90 corridor which get plenty from SWFE type systems absolutely, and then the buried scenario happens when they have much more time than us for the miller B to crush them. For even the relative table scraps in NYC scenario to work out, the trends for confluence need to get better. If in the next 48 hours we don't see more improvement I'm closing this one out (models so far look about hold-serve, GFS a little worse). Remember also that if anything these SWFE type events trend warmer at the end because models usually don't pick up the mid level warmth until the end. We don't want this to still be a SWFE when it gets here. Right, this is not the kind of set up where we see a significant snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: GFS/CMC both have a big storm next Saturday. should have been for THIS Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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