Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Recommended Posts

44 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If the two feet shown for Boston verifies, that would be a historic outcome. Boston has never had two feet of snow in March following a winter with less than 25" of snow through February. But warmer air holds more moisture, so if it's cold enough and there's a big storm, such an outcome can't be ruled out.

Some quick statistics for March:

Snowfall through February: < 15"; Snowiest March: 13.5", 2019 (0% of cases with 20" or more for March)
Snowfall through February: < 20"; Snowiest March: 22.3", 1960 (6.5% of cases with 20" or more for March)
Snowfall through February: < 25"; Snowiest March: 22.3", 1960 (4.5% of cases with 20" or more for March)

 

This blocking period is crucial.

All models show some snow for CPK. If the temps are as low as predicted in March and CPK gets up to 4, I would think it would take this winter out of the top 10 in full winter futility.

On the other hand, if the Blocking fails an connects to the SER, I would imagine it's a top 5.

Amazing what relatively small differences can change in a historical context.

 

image.png.a59f7e7f0b90020d5d14b8edc88ac35a.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very surprised the SNE folks are so gungho about next week.

If the 50/50 is even slightly weaker or displaced then the threat falls apart. Anyone south of VT/NH/ME should be skeptical 

With blocking that strong the 50/50 isn’t going anywhere. Unless the blocking weakens a lot I like our chances. The only model not on board now is the gfs.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'd still watch Saturday for something as well...it may end up more north but someone probably sees light snows 

Euro does give us a coating saturday. UKMET continues to be the model that's most impressed, giving a lot of the area around an inch of snow. Definitely worth watching since it will be cold enough saturday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EPS made some good changes here

  1. slightly stronger 50/50, which leads to the block nudging further W
  2. slightly higher heights over the SW US - increases amplitude of the incoming S/W
  3. then there's also a stronger and more E lobe of vorticity N of MT that increases phasing potential

the blossoming of riding in SE Canada north of the S/W is also indicative of a blocking regime... it can't gain latitude like that and is then forced to redevelop offshore. this is getting close to looking really damn good. give it a few more days

this kind of setup favors New England, but potent Miller B setups can still deliver significant snow to the NYC metro. there are a bunch of <990mb members

ezgif-2-ebff9f9fe5.thumb.gif.6da0b615119eabc1aff33808684d54fb.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-7607200.thumb.png.e078a218ad0e4f2f1073140ec82a9c3c.png

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

How does that logic work?

Suppression now equals more suppressed storm down the line? 

While the Euro looks overdone on the snowfall, the warmth staying south tomorrow indicates CAD is setting up. Probably favors places in New England. Suppression shouldn’t be an issue with the strong Southeast ridge and primary going near Buffalo.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very surprised the SNE folks are so gungho about next week.
If the 50/50 is even slightly weaker or displaced then the threat falls apart. Anyone south of VT/NH/ME should be skeptical 

If I lived in New England, especially central and northern New England I’d be gung-ho about next week too
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...