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14 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Signs of secondary development for 2/28. Rarely works out south of NE but will keep an eye on it. 

All depends on where such redevelopment would happen. A NAO block/50-50 in place would be best. If not it could be congrats Boston or even another sucky SWFE like the others. 

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22 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Pretty good secondary track honestly but would probably need to transfer a bit quicker for the coast. 

Euro’s probably insanely overdone but the fact remains that we need an earlier transfer. There could definitely be a powerful coastal storm given the untapped warm waters off the coast and the fact we’re headed into prime season for some big ones. Without the early transfer it’s essentially another crap SWFE as far as we’re concerned. 

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26 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Sheeze Boston is crushed on the Euro, at least we get some snow. 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023022212&fh=174&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

If the two feet shown for Boston verifies, that would be a historic outcome. Boston has never had two feet of snow in March following a winter with less than 25" of snow through February. But warmer air holds more moisture, so if it's cold enough and there's a big storm, such an outcome can't be ruled out.

Some quick statistics for March:

Snowfall through February: < 15"; Snowiest March: 13.5", 2019 (0% of cases with 20" or more for March)
Snowfall through February: < 20"; Snowiest March: 22.3", 1960 (6.5% of cases with 20" or more for March)
Snowfall through February: < 25"; Snowiest March: 22.3", 1960 (4.5% of cases with 20" or more for March)

 

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