February 2023

[EastonSN+]

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[EastonSN+]

This window can work for front end snow for northern and eastern areas of the sub forum.

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, wow 2011-12 will be hard to match!  What was NYC seasonal snowfall if we exclude October?

 

I don't think we'll be able to outdo 11/12 for the D-M period.

March 2012 was extremely warm and this March doesn't look to follow that path. 

[EastonSN+]

The two windows I provided are better than any window that presented itself in 97/98, however the way this winter has gone 97/98 will likely finish higher.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we have had plenty of below 10" snowfall seasons here though in the last 35 years, I really think 2018 was the massive outlier.

I guess you could say 1998 had a fluke event, but 2001-02 basically flatlined.

JFK will average below 15 inches of seasonal snowfall probably within the next 20 years.

 

Both 2001-2002 and 2019-2020 had no measurable snowfall after January.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Both 2001-2002 and 2019-2020 had no measurable snowfall after January.

That's what ranks 2001-02 #1 in all respects.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The two windows I provided are better than any window that presented itself in 97/98, however the way this winter has gone 97/98 will likely finish higher.

we had a lot of storms including coastals in 97-98, this winter is far more boring.

also warmer than 97-98 by a fair margin

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think we'll be able to outdo 11/12 for the D-M period.

March 2012 was extremely warm and this March doesn't look to follow that path. 

It will be interesting to see what happens.  I think March will be closer to average too, but temps will shoot up again in April.

 

[Dark Star]

Interesting "Frost" this morning.  Yesterday evening, there was steam in the air, leftover from the light rain.  Overnight, it formed an icy glaze on some of the surfaces.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

we had a lot of storms including coastals in 97-98, this winter is far more boring.

also warmer than 97-98 by a fair margin

 

The reason this winter was more conducive to snowfall than 97/98 is the fact that we have cold on our side of the globe. Yes we failed to time a trailing wave etc. 

In 97/98 North America was scoured of cold air from the El Nino. You could (and did) have perfect coastal tracks in 97/98 however there was absolutely no cold air to tap into. 

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what do you think of this prediction.....within the next 20 years JFK will average below 15" of snow?

I can see that happening easily.

 

If experience elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region where it has been warming is representative, the mid-2040s could see JFK's average drop below 15". Central Park would fall into the teens, as well. There would continue to be snowy winters from time to time, but they would become more infrequent.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The reason this winter was more conducive to snowfall than 97/98 is the fact that we have cold on our side of the globe. Yes we failed to time a trailing wave etc. 

In 97/98 North America was scoured of cold air from the El Nino. You could (and did) have perfect coastal tracks in 97/98 however there was absolutely no cold air to tap into. 

 

I do remember some epic historic ice storms just north of us in 97-98

Cold air doesn't mean anything if the pattern doesn't allow cold air to be here during storms, we had that during the 80s and early 90s too

 

You can have snow and lots of it, without it being very cold.

 

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, wow 2011-12 will be hard to match!  What was NYC seasonal snowfall if we exclude October?

 

4.5".

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The reason this winter was more conducive to snowfall than 97/98 is the fact that we have cold on our side of the globe. Yes we failed to time a trailing wave etc. 

In 97/98 North America was scoured of cold air from the El Nino. You could (and did) have perfect coastal tracks in 97/98 however there was absolutely no cold air to tap into. 

 

For example we had less cold air outbreaks in 2009-10....cold air doesn't ecessarily equal snow in this area.

I'd rather have less cold and more snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

4.5".

More like 2001-02 then

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I do remember some epic historic ice storms just north of us in 97-98

Cold air doesn't mean anything if the pattern doesn't allow cold air to be here during storms, we had that during the 80s and early 90s too

 

You can have snow and lots of it, without it being very cold.

 

If you have cold air in the CONUS, you can either have a cutter pull the boundary east briefly and allow for a weak trailing wave or changeover.

When there is NO cold in the CONUS, at our latitude, the only way you can snow is by a massive bomb I'm the exact right spot.

Let's agree to disagree.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If you have cold air in the CONUS, you can either have a cutter pull the boundary east briefly and allow for a weak trailing wave or changeover.

When there is NO cold in the CONUS, at our latitude, the only way you can snow is by a massive bomb I'm the exact right spot.

Let's agree to disagree.

It depends on what you mean by cold air, there is always cold air somewhere, but usually it's at a higher latitude.  We only need it to be "just cold enough" which means near average.  February 2010 was an amazing month for snow but it wasn't very cold. It sucked for New England but we don't care about New England....February 2010 was one of the snowiest months on record without much cold, and that's even with that historic miss at the beginning of the month.  If we had that it would have been our snowiest winter ever.  Toms River probably had that since it had the best of all the snowstorms that season.

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It depends on what you mean by cold air, there is always cold air somewhere, but usually it's at a higher latitude.  We only need it to be "just cold enough" which means near average.  February 2010 was an amazing month for snow but it wasn't very cold.

 

February 2010 had cold air in Canada to tap into.

In 97/98 the entire continent was scoured of cold air from the Nino pattern. 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If you have cold air in the CONUS, you can either have a cutter pull the boundary east briefly and allow for a weak trailing wave or changeover.

When there is NO cold in the CONUS, at our latitude, the only way you can snow is by a massive bomb I'm the exact right spot.

Let's agree to disagree.

Those trailing waves are very rare, to my knowledge a likelihood of that happening is like 10%

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

February 2010 had cold air in Canada to tap into.

In 97/98 the entire continent was scoured of cold air from the Nino pattern. 

 

New England was much milder relative to average though, you only need temps in the 30s to get good snow of course.  I don't care about Arctic air, it's not necessary.

We've had very little cold air nearby this season too, you just have to look at the average temps in January and February, the warmest such couplet on record.

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Those trailing waves are very rare, to my knowledge a likelihood of that happening is like 10%

 

I don't know the percentage but they do happen.

BROOKLYNWX, Dark Star or any MET, am I explaining 97/98 incorrectly? Wouldn't a pattern like this where the cold is in our continent better for snow than 97/98 where the entire continent is flooded by maritime air?

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I don't know the percentage but they do happen.

BROOKLYNWX, Dark Star or any MET, am I explaining 97/98 incorrectly? Wouldn't a pattern like this where the cold is in our continent better for snow than 97/98 where the entire continent is flooded by maritime air?

If you're talking about December I agree, but January and February, there was very little cold air here.  Having both months average above 40 is very rare.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

New England was much milder relative to average though, you only need temps in the 30s to get good snow of course.  I don't care about Arctic air, it's not necessary.

We've had very little cold air nearby this season too, you just have to look at the average temps in January and February, the warmest such couplet on record.

 

Massive difference between no cold air in our continent vs. to our west.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Massive difference between no cold air in our continent vs. to our west.

Unfortunately cold air doesn't like to move west to east lol.

It would be interesting to see a temperature anomaly composite for the entire continent of this season vs both 1997-98 and 2001-02.

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

February 2010 had cold air in Canada to tap into.

In 97/98 the entire continent was scoured of cold air from the Nino pattern. 

 

We also need something to lock the cold air in here 90% of the time. We can’t rely on SWFEs to give us decent events like I-90 and north can. Storms will try to cut when they reach us unless something like blocking or 50-50 low suppresses the track. The other 10% are the lucky occasions like the trailing wave etc. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

If you're talking about December I agree, but January and February, there was very little cold air here.  Having both months average above 40 is very rare.

 

So this works. Compare this January to this February.

Do not look at the average temps. Looks at the H5 and cold anomalies. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We also need something to lock the cold air in here 90% of the time. We can’t rely on SWFEs to give us decent events like I-90 and north can. Storms will try to cut when they reach us unless something like blocking or 50-50 low suppresses the track. The other 10% are the lucky occasions like the trailing wave etc. 

Yes that's what I meant, trailing waves depend on luck. Insofar as luck exists lol-- that would be it.

That is the climatology of our region, we need to lock the cold air, that's why snowy periods are so rare down here.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

So this works. Compare this January to this February.

Do not look at the average temps. Looks at the H5 and cold anomalies. 

February is definitely better than January but still very bad.  Remember we spent a long time in the 50s and higher this month.  The beginning and end of the month were/will be better though.

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that's what I meant, trailing waves depend on luck. Insofar as luck exists lol-- that would be it.

That is the climatology of our region, we need to lock the cold air, that's why snowy periods are so rare down here.

 

getting an initial wave to drag a baroclinic zone south for another wave that actually produces snow isn't that rare. that's kind of what 50/50s do before larger storms sometimes

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We also need something to lock the cold air in here 90% of the time. We can’t rely on SWFEs to give us decent events like I-90 and north can. Storms will try to cut when they reach us unless something like blocking or 50-50 low suppresses the track. The other 10% are the lucky occasions like the trailing wave etc. 

Yeah agreed that neither pattern is good. I was just comparing a 97/98 vs. La Nina pattern like now. No cold in our continent vs. to our west.