February 2023

[Rjay]

Needs a tornado warning tbh

 

[SRRTA22]

A fooking tornado has touched down in NJ in February!!!!! 

CC drop

[Rjay]

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

A fooking tornado has touched down in NJ in February!!!!! 

CC drop

 

[SRRTA22]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Needs a tornado warning tbh

 

There's a CC drop right over the center of rotation 

[Rjay]

 

[stemwinder]

Just passed through.  Hail, thunder.  What a Winter!  

[Rjay]

Lifted but wtf

 

[Rjay]

Question for the subforum:

Which value will be higher for the month of February?

A ) Number of tornadoes in our sub

B ) Inches of snow at KNYC

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Question for the subforum:

Which value will be higher for the month of February?

A ) Number of tornadoes in our sub

B ) Inches of snow at KNYC

[SRRTA22]

Cell made every use of what little surface cape there was.

It even made the left split haha and currently recycling. 

Winter2023

 

 

 

[Rjay]

Severe storms rolling into the Poconos and Catskills 

 

[Roger Smith]

I posted this list of very warm February readings at NYC back on the 2nd, here's an update including changes and additions, plus two near misses for record high minima in Feb 2023. 

So far there have been just one tied record high max (10th), and two new record high minima (10th, 16th). The latter (56F) was the second highest value in February after 58F set for 24th in 2018.  Another record high maximum was missed by one degree (16th) and two record high minima were missed by 2F on 15th and by 1F on the 20th.

The list includes all days that reached or exceeded 65F and notes "warmest since" values when records are before 1970.  

 

February record high maxima and minima for NYC (Central Park) 

Date _____ Hi max ______ Hi min __________ Other maxima 65+ (and warmest since records set before 1980)

Feb 01 ___ 67 1989 ____ 50 1988 _________

Feb 02 ___ 59 1988 ____ 42 1952 

Feb 03 ___ 64 1991 ____ 46 1999,2006

Feb 04 ___ 68 1991 ____ 46 1991 _________

Feb 05 ___ 70 1991 ____ 51 1991 __________ also 68 in 1890, 65 in 2019

Feb 06 ___ 68 2008 ____ 42 1884,1938

Feb 07 ___ 56 2020 ____ 42 1904 __________previous record was 54 (1938)

Feb 08 ___ 62 2017 ____ 48 1965 

Feb 09 ___ 63 1990 ____ 46 2005 (42 2023)

Feb 10 ___ 61 1990,2001,2023_ 45 2023 (43 1999) 

Feb 11 ___ 65 1960,2009 _50 1966 

Feb 12 ___ 62 1999,2018 _ 45 1966

Feb 13 ___ 64 1951 ____ 47 1880 

Feb 14 ___ 63 1946 ____ 50 1949 __________ 1949 was 59F, warmest since 1949 are 1990, 2011 58F

Feb 15 ___ 73 1949 ____ 49 1984 (47 2023) ___ 69 in 1954, 67 in 2023 (previously warmest since 1954 was 62 in 2018)

Feb 16 ___ 71 1954 ____ 56 2023 44 2002 ___also 70 in 2023 previously, warmest since 1954 was 60 in 1976 (also 62 in 1921)

Feb 17 ___ 68 2022 ____ 49 2022 ___________ also 67 in 1976

Feb 18 ___ 68 1981 ____ 48 1981 ____________ also 67 in 2011

Feb 19 ___ 66 1997 ____ 53 2017 ____________ also 65 in 2017

Feb 20 ___ 69 1930,39__48 1939 (47 2023) _ also 67 in 2018

Feb 21 ___ 78 2018 ____55 2018 _____________ also 68 in 1930, 67 in 1953

Feb 22 ___ 69 1997 ____ 46 1996 _____________also 66 in 1874, 1991

Feb 23 ___ 72 1874 ____ 55 1985 _____________ (warmest since 1874 was 70F in 1985, also 68F in 2022, 65F in 2017).

Feb 24 ___ 75 1985 ____ 58 2017 _____________ also 65 in 1930, 1961

Feb 25 ___ 75 1930 ____ 51 1930 _____________ also 70 in 1976, 67 in 1985

Feb 26 ___ 65 1890 ____ 49 1976 _____________ warmest since 1890 was 62 in 1951, 1976

Feb 27 ___ 72 1997 ____ 49 1976 _____________ also 68 in 1880, 67 in 1976, 66 in 1971

Feb 28 ___ 67 1976 ____ 47 1903,10,2017 ________ warmest since 1976 was 62 in 1997

Feb 29 ___ 69 1880 ____ 47 1896, 2016 ______ warmest since 1880 was 67 in 1976 (61 in 2016)

-- - - - - - - - - - - --

 

[SnoSki14]

Can't get an inch of snow but an effin tornado just rolled through NJ in February. 

WTF

[Rjay]

On 2/17/2023 at 7:13 PM, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Looks more wintry 

 

[Franklin0529]

 

[donsutherland1]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

Winter 2022-23:

Tornado warnings: 1

Winter storm warnings: 0

[SRRTA22]

Mind you, the tornado touched down in an air mass that's ~55f with a dp of around 40

[CIK62]

The best 5 Day Period of the next four and all it will achieve is preventing this Feb. from being the warmest ever.     The ridge gains its revenge in the next two such periods.      It will burn your ass.

The heavy stuff missed to my south---at a little past 4:00pm.       Hope northeast NJ got away safely.      But Dorothy will spin like a top around here through May.

[Cfa]

Yikes.

[Euripides]

That main cell went to the south of us but still got some lightning and thunder, one was a bolt with the the thunder at the same time so you know that was a close one.

So odd as that was third or fourth thunderstorm since the new year began. Shows you how warm Jan and Feb have been.

[Winterweatherlover]

Both US models have NYC starting as snow tomorrow, RGEM has no snow southeast of the catskills. 

 

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2022-23:

Tornado warnings: 1

Winter storm warnings: 0

[White Gorilla]

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I just can't.  

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cool. Some showers and perhaps a period of rain is possible. North and west of New York City and Newark, there could be some mixed precipitation. A minor accumulation is possible far north and west of the two cities.

The warm front will likely approach New York City on Thursday. South of the front, it will be unseasonably warm. The temperature could rocket into the middle 70s in Philadelphia and reach or exceed 80° in Washington, DC. Parts of the Southeast could see not just daily record high temperatures, but also monthly records.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the much of the remainder of February. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February, though the weekend could start off with a fairly sharp cold shot.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels.

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could see near normal readings. Uncertainty remains high.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was -4.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.725 today.

On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.717 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.007 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.3° (5.4° above normal).

 

[Nibor]

What will happen sooner? A Hurricane Warning followed by a winter storm warning within a week (we were close with Sandy) or a Tornado Warning followed by a Winter Storm Warning within a week?

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Strongly disagree here our new climate will not be dry. It will be incredibly humid especially since the Gulf usually feeds us in the summer. Last summer was the blip. 

It's not about a new climate, more like a repeating pattern that lasts for a few summers.  You can still have very dry summers, I'm not saying this will last forever, but it can be a drought that lasts a few years (at least during the summer), especially with a west to east flow.  We had this in the 80s and 90s too.

I absolutely hate the Gulf of Mexico, that would be the first body of water I'd get rid of.

FYI you can still have very humid summers but without much rain.  I've experienced many of those here.

 

[SRRTA22]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not about a new climate, more like a repeating pattern that lasts for a few summers.  You can still have very dry summers, I'm not saying this will last forever, but it can be a drought that lasts a few years (at least during the summer), especially with a west to east flow.  We had this in the 80s and 90s too.

I absolutely hate the Gulf of Mexico, that would be the first body of water I'd get rid of.

FYI you can still have very humid summers but without much rain.  I've experienced many of those here.

 

You get rid of the gulf of Mexico and I'm pretty sure 90% of the USA becomes a barren desert 

[MJO812]

Early March threat on gfs and cmc

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

You get rid of the gulf of Mexico and I'm pretty sure 90% of the USA becomes a barren desert 

Not necessarily.  We live on a smaller continent where the Pacific Ocean dominates.  This isn't Asia.

I've actually played with 3D simulations where you can geoengineer the planet and the only way the country turns into a desert is if you create a large mountain range like the Himalayas.

It's useful to consider geoengineering to stop sea level rise and to limit the death toll that severe weather outbreaks and hurricanes cause.  Removing the gulf would definitely stop lethal severe weather outbreaks and some of our worst hurricanes.

Of course this is all hypothetical, there is no real way to eliminate large bodies of water lol.  But it's interesting to see what the planet would look like if it was changed.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Early March threat on gfs and cmc

Tornado threat?