Great Snow 1717 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 43 minutes ago, North and West said: These forecasts always look unhinged . nah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter didn't even start Extended Autumn I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I agree! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It is good that the west coast is benefiting from all this, they really needed it. Incredibly drought conditions could be reduced to nil in California when all is said and done which would've been unthinkable a few months ago. The downside is the growing drought in the plains, which is not good given that's our crop growth zone. We need big improvement there A dry Midwest could lead to a hot summer for us, depending on where our air mass comes in from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Don had a stat which showed that 6+ events were more common when the SD of the PNA was -1.0 or higher. This year the RNA overwhelmed the blocking. I would imagine the same for +PNA, where the closer you are to a SD of 0 the better. yup, the largest events for NYC almost unanimously feature a -PNA or at least a deep trough on the WC or just offshore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Records: 5 years ago in 2018, the all time highest temps for Feb in the area. Highs: EWR: 80 (2018) LGA: 79 (2018) NYC: 78 (2018) Lows: EWR: 6 (1959) LGA: 6 (1968) NYC: 5 (1968) Historical: 1918 - A spectacular chinook wind at Granville, ND, caused the temperature to spurt from a morning low of 33 degrees below zero to an afternoon high of 50 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) 1935 - Frequent duststorms occurred in eastern Colorado during the month, forcing schools to close and people to stay indoors. A fatality occurred on this date when two section cars collided on the railroad near Arriba CO, due to poor visibility. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at Langdon, ND, climbed above zero for the first time in six weeks. Readings never got above freezing during all three winter months. (David Ludlum) 1971 - An outbreak of tornadoes hit northeastern Louisiana and northern and central Mississippi. The tornadoes claimed 121 lives, including 110 in Mississippi. Three tornadoes accounted for 118 of the deaths. There are 1600 persons injured, 900 homes were destroyed or badly damaged, and total damage was 19 million dollars. (David Ludlum) 1971 - Elk City, OK, was buried under 36 inches of snow to establish a 24 hour snowfall record for the state. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Low pressure over central California produced gale force winds along the coast, and produced thunderstorms which pelted Stockton, Oakland and San Jose with small hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A storm tracking across southern Canada produced high winds in the north central U.S., with gusted to 90 mph reported at Boulder CO. The high winds snapped trees and power lines, and ripped shingles off roofs. The Kentucky Fried Chicken Bucket was blown off their store in Havre MT. An eighteen foot fiberglass bear was blown off its stand along a store front in west Cody WY, and sailed east into downtown Cody before the owners were able to transport their wandering bear back home in a horse trailer. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the morning hours spread severe weather across Georgia and the Carolinas. Strong thunderstorm winds caused one death and thirteen injuries in North Carolina, and another four injuries in South Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Overnight thunderstorms produced heavy rain in central Texas. Rainfall totals ranged up to 2.80 inches at Camp Verde, with 2.20 inches reported at Leakey. Thunderstorms early in the day produced high winds in southern Texas, with wind gusts to 60 mph reported at Alice. Daytime thunderstorms in eastern Texas drenched Rosenberg with four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 New York’s Record Warm Winter: Good for Sunbathing, Bad for Ski Slopes (msn.com) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 12Z CMC is a glancing blow on Sunday, in this pathetic winter is trackable and probably our best opportunity since cold air won't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2023022112&fh=114 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Awful 12z runs The stupid trough doesn't want to move out of the west. I honestly don't even know why you are worrying about it when gou declared winter over the other day anyway. We know nothing is going to change. Not worth getting upset over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12Z CMC is a glancing blow on Sunday, in this pathetic winter is trackable and probably our best opportunity since cold air won't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2023022112&fh=114 You can argue models shearing the crap outta that storm at this range is precisely where we want to see it now...but I felt for sure that Sat/Sun was our chance as the preceeding system was gonna maybe suppress heights enough we'd get a rare SWFE type event where we were all snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12Z CMC is a glancing blow on Sunday, in this pathetic winter is trackable and probably our best opportunity since cold air won't be an issue. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2023022112&fh=114 Yeah the CMC is a coating to an inch for saturday evening. UKMET actually just came in pretty good for saturday. A solid 1 to 3 inch event on 12z UKMET. Hopefully Euro will come aboard. We finally have cold enough air if we can get some moisture in here late saturday. This looks like NYC's best chance to see an inch of snow in this joke of a winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah the CMC is a coating to an inch for saturday evening. UKMET actually just came in pretty good for saturday. A solid 1 to 3 inch event on 12z UKMET. Hopefully Euro will come aboard. We finally have cold enough air if we can get some moisture in here late saturday. This looks like NYC's best chance to see an inch of snow in this joke of a winter. I will take it. I was in the garden yesterday and the bugs are already out in full force. Going to be a terrible year for ticks and mosquitoes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 interesting warm front dilemma thursday 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: interesting warm front dilemma thursday Cold usually wins out this time of year but the Nam showing the warmth hints that perhaps it'll get north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 You can argue models shearing the crap outta that storm at this range is precisely where we want to see it now...but I felt for sure that Sat/Sun was our chance as the preceeding system was gonna maybe suppress heights enough we'd get a rare SWFE type event where we were all snow hereThe only model showing any interest in Sat/Sun is the UKMET. The CMC is a sheared, disjointed strung out mess like the GFS, ICON and last night’s EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The only model showing any interest in Sat/Sun is the UKMET. The CMC is a sheared, disjointed strung out mess like the GFS, ICON and last night’s EURO The tendency being away from that all winter is partly what makes me think this has a chance...virtually nothing has gotten sheared like that all season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: interesting warm front dilemma thursday Not sure, but I think one of them might be wrong... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: interesting warm front dilemma thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: My money is on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The tendency being away from that all winter is partly what makes me think this has a chance...virtually nothing has gotten sheared like that all seasonIf there is an actual legit threat window, it’s probably something like 3/8-3/16. It’s way out there but the -NAO will be decaying at that point and the -PNA might relax somewhat (that’s not saying much) but assuming it’s still even cold enough at that point, it may be the “last gasp” if that’s what you want to call it. Past that point, it’s over, stick a fork in it IMO. I think Sat/Sun is a weak sauce nothing burger and 2/28 is a massive cutter. Low confidence on the 3/8-3/16 idea right now though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 26 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Not sure, but I think one of them might be wrong... The NAM is known for driving warm fronts too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: If there is an actual legit threat window, it’s probably something like 3/8-3/16. It’s way out there but the -NAO will be decaying at that point and the -PNA might relax somewhat (that’s not saying much) but assuming it’s still even cold enough at that point, it may be the “last gasp” if that’s what you want to call it. Past that point, it’s over, stick a fork in it IMO. I think Sat/Sun is a weak sauce nothing burger and 2/28 is a massive cutter Saturday might be weak sauce, but we've had nothing other than a light coating all winter. So even a small 1 to 2 inch snow event would seem decent at this point. UKMET is the only model that gives us that right now, but 12z Euro did show improvement. It now gets accumulating snow to southern NJ saturday after last night's run had nothing. There's plenty of time for this to trend towards this being a decent light snow event for our area. It's a very rare situation this winter in which we actually have cold enough air for accumulating snow, so I'm interested even though it looks like a light event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Saturday might be weak sauce, but we've had nothing other than a light coating all winter. So even a small 1 to 2 inch snow event would seem decent at this point. UKMET is the only model that gives us that right now, but 12z Euro did show improvement. It now gets accumulating snow to southern NJ saturday after last night's run had nothing. There's plenty of time for this to trend towards this being a decent light snow event for our area. It's a very rare situation this winter in which we actually have cold enough air for accumulating snow, so I'm interested even though it looks like a light event at best. Saturday has absolutely screaming fast flow. I don’t think it amounts to anything but I guess stranger things have happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 .50" of pea sized hail with a double rainbow. Finally some white 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Severe thunderstorms warning here. What a death sentence this winter has been 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The supercell over NJ is lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Beat me to it!! wtf..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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