LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Pretty rare for that area from one event. Since the 1880’s they have had only 5 storms of 17 or more inches. In the same time period NYC has had 16 storms of 17 or more inches. I think a few of them were in the early 90s when NYC had some of its worst winters-- consecutively 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Disgusting How is it disgusting to have perfect air quality, no humidity and zero air pollution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It is good that the west coast is benefiting from all this, they really needed it. Incredibly drought conditions could be reduced to nil in California when all is said and done which would've been unthinkable a few months ago. The downside is the growing drought in the plains, which is not good given that's our crop growth zone. We need big improvement there and I am telling you, that dryness is expanding east as years go on and we are going to have that here, doesn't matter what the Atlantic SST are. Last summer was not a blip, that is going to be the new pattern going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Wantage NJ 4sw pavements wet but 0.1" slushy snow on all surfaces. 32.4. rain changed to snow at this 740' elevation sometime after 3A. I know DPW is working higher elevation CR nw part of the county. Walt 431A Temp was 59 at 3P yesterday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 This really should be in the March thread, but since that thread doesn't exist yet: Check this out about the major SSW and how the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS are now clearly suggesting that the E US will be significantly affected especially on and after March 10th:https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming-main-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-forecast-fa/If the weeklies and GEFS ext are correct and we get a retrograded west based -NAO block setup come 3/12 on…what good does it feasibly do for us (snow/cold wise) at that point in time given our latitude, sun angle, climo and length of day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 ....Northern Mid Atlantic... In the wake of an initial frontal wave migrating offshore, models indicate that boundary-layer warming and mixing with insolation along and east of the Allegheny Mountains, coupled with modest residual low-level moisture, may contribute to weak destabilization ahead of an occluding surface low migrating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes. Beneath very cold mid-level air (including 500 mb temps at or below -30 C), it appears that the environment may become conducive to scattered low-topped thunderstorms capable of producing small hail/graupel. Some of this activity, mainly across parts of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, may also aid the downward transfer of momentum associated with 40-50+ kt west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, contributing to a risk for damaging surface gusts during the mid to late afternoon hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 20th: 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Trace of snowfall on the ground in Patterson, NY! Woke up to some nice white snow for a change! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: and I am telling you, that dryness is expanding east as years go on and we are going to have that here, doesn't matter what the Atlantic SST are. Last summer was not a blip, that is going to be the new pattern going forward. Strongly disagree here our new climate will not be dry. It will be incredibly humid especially since the Gulf usually feeds us in the summer. Last summer was the blip. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy. Additional showers are likely during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 49° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 57° Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5° Newark: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 44.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.7°; 15-Year: 45.5° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 45 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Trace of snowfall on the ground in Patterson, NY! Woke up to some nice white snow for a change! Top 3 storms of the year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the weeklies and GEFS ext are correct and we get a retrograded west based -NAO block setup come 3/12 on…what good does it feasibly do for us (snow/cold wise) at that point in time given our latitude, sun angle, climo and length of day? North and west areas can get something-we've had accumulating snow here into early April. Of course you do need fresh arctic air and the event to occur at night....for the city and immediate coast it's unlikely after about 3/15... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause. 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the persistent Ninas help keep the western Atlantic warm in the same way that the insanely persistent +PNA/-EPO in 2013-2015 baked SSTs off the WC. generally the overall pattern drives the SSTs, but I'm sure there's a bit of a feedback loop going on right now that would break once a Nino forces a persistent SE trough Great analysis by Brooklynwx from the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This look is meh. Thanks for pinning winter out west -NAO. Only hope is that the confluence northeast of us is enough. Otherwise it’s probably more congrats NNE. Been my worry all along. Great analysis by CoastalWX in the NE forum. The NAO is actually pinning the piece of PV west. IMO we just need that RNA to weaken. Not disappear but weaken. However this year it's not happening. At least we are saying goodbye to la Nina next year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Top 3 storms of the year Sad thing is this isn't a joke! But I had to worry for a minute to make sure it wasn't poison ash raining down on us from Ohio and their latest disaster yesterday sadly /s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Top 3 storms of the year ..it would shut down the south for a week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Great analysis by CoastalWX in the NE forum. The NAO is actually pinning the piece of PV west. IMO we just need that RNA to weaken. Not disappear but weaken. However this year it's not happening. At least we are saying goodbye to la Nina next year. In the image in my previous post, imagine if the la Nina forcing was weaker. You would end up squeezing the PV like an orange and allow the cold to move under the block. Instead the La Nina forcing is so strong the RNA is just too deep and you "link" the SER to the PV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 The last 8 days of February are averaging 37degs.(31/43) or -1. Month to date is 42.4[+7.3]. February should end at 40.9[+5.0]. Reached 62 here yesterday. Today: High T was 53 at midnight. 44-46 daytime, wind ne. to n. to nw., on and off rain till 7pm, 35 tomorrow AM. 41*(73%RH) here at 6am{was 53 at midnight}. 47* at Noon. 48* at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 These forecasts always look unhinged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Great analysis by Brooklynwx from the MA forum. I believe that there is a lot more to the story. ENSO can have some impact via the upper air patterns, but there's more to the story. If one looks at all second and third year La Niña events, the Atlantic SSTA picture is mixed. The Atlantic anomalies are warmer in recent years and generally colder in earlier ones. That seems to reflect a longer-term evolution of SSTAs that is underway. Second and Third Year La Niña Events: Longer-Term Evolution of Atlantic SSTAs: Indeed, the longer-term evolution appears to be consistent with the expectations from the climate models for a range of scenarios. From the IPCC: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: During a sun-filled afternoon, temperatures reached the lower 60s in much of the region. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler. Some showers are possible. Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the much of the remainder of February. Nevertheless, a brief cool shot could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. A snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could see near normal readings. Uncertainty remains high. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +10.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.886 today. On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.998 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.123 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal). Don, I think you hit the nail on the head with the March 2002 outcome. Looking at the ensembles, the continuation of the RNA pattern domination seems to continue. Would you happen to have, or know where to locate, the March 2002 H5 map? I would like to compare to the projected H5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 the big +pna patterns nickel and dime us 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Don, I think you hit the nail on the head with the March 2002 outcome. Looking at the ensembles, the continuation of the RNA pattern domination seems to continue. Would you happen to have, or know where to locate, the March 2002 H5 map? I would like to compare to the projected H5 setup. There were big differences at 500 mb. I just used a scenario for the opening of March. There is some promise on the longer-range ECMWF weeklies, but the skill scores are low out to 3-4 weeks and the mean temperatures are about 5° warmer than they are at the start of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 9 hours ago, Albedoman said: well that its --winter is over. It will be snowing around the SF Bay area this week. What a slap in the face. Its snowed in Tuscon, Las Vegas and poor Minneapolis is getting 2-3 ft of snow this week, while we can even scrape up an inch f snow for an entire day. Pathetic Winter was over 3 weeks ago. The rest of it was for entertainment value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: There were big differences at 500 mb. I just used a scenario for the opening of March. There is some promise on the longer-range ECMWF weeklies, but the skill scores are low out to 3-4 weeks and the mean temperatures are about 5° warmer than they are at the start of the month. Thanks Don! I hope the weeklies are correct, however not sure what mechanism can dislodge/ weaken the RNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Winter was over 6 weeks ago. The rest of it was for entertainment value FIXED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I believe that there is a lot more to the story. ENSO can have some impact via the upper air patterns, but there's more to the story. If one looks at all second and third year La Niña events, the Atlantic SSTA picture is mixed. The Atlantic anomalies are warmer in recent years and generally colder in earlier ones. That seems to reflect a longer-term evolution of SSTAs that is underway. Second and Third Year La Niña Events: Longer-Term Evolution of Atlantic SSTAs: Indeed, the longer-term evolution appears to be consistent with the expectations from the climate models for a range of scenarios. From the IPCC: Thanks for the analysis. Definitely agree that more research needs to be done on these marine heatwaves and how persistent they’ll be going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Winter was over 3 weeks ago. The rest of it was for entertainment value Winter didn't even start Extended Autumn 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the big +pna patterns nickel and dime us Don had a stat which showed that 6+ events were more common when the SD of the PNA was -1.0 or higher. This year the RNA overwhelmed the blocking. I would imagine the same for +PNA, where the closer you are to a SD of 0 the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Trace of snowfall on the ground in Patterson, NY! Woke up to some nice white snow for a change! Yes, I received about 1" overnight, everything was coated and looked beautiful. I wasnt expecting anything so this was a nice surprise when i woke up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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