February 2023

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Pretty rare for that area from one event. Since the 1880’s they have had only 5 storms of 17 or more inches. In the same time period NYC has had 16 storms of 17 or more inches. 

I think a few of them were in the early 90s when NYC had some of its worst winters-- consecutively

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Disgusting 

How is it disgusting to have perfect air quality, no humidity and zero air pollution?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It is good that the west coast is benefiting from all this, they really needed it. 

Incredibly drought conditions could be reduced to nil in California when all is said and done which would've been unthinkable a few months ago. 

The downside is the growing drought in the plains, which is not good given that's our crop growth zone. We need big improvement there

and I am telling you, that dryness is expanding east as years go on and we are going to have that here, doesn't matter what the Atlantic SST are.  Last summer was not a blip, that is going to be the new pattern going forward.

 

 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 4sw pavements wet but 0.1" slushy snow on all surfaces. 32.4. rain changed to snow at this 740' elevation sometime after 3A. I know DPW is working higher elevation CR nw part of the county. Walt 431A Temp was 59 at 3P yesterday. 

 

[snowman19]

 This really should be in the March thread, but since that thread doesn't exist yet:
Check this out about the major SSW and how the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS are now clearly suggesting that the E US will be significantly affected especially on and after March 10th:
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming-main-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-forecast-fa/

If the weeklies and GEFS ext are correct and we get a retrograded west based -NAO block setup come 3/12 on…what good does it feasibly do for us (snow/cold wise) at that point in time given our latitude, sun angle, climo and length of day?

[Rtd208]

....Northern Mid Atlantic...
   In the wake of an initial frontal wave migrating offshore, models
   indicate that boundary-layer warming and mixing with insolation
   along and east of the Allegheny Mountains, coupled with modest
   residual low-level moisture, may contribute to weak destabilization
   ahead of an occluding surface low migrating east-northeast of the
   lower Great Lakes.  Beneath very cold mid-level air (including 500
   mb temps at or below -30 C), it appears that the environment may
   become conducive to scattered low-topped thunderstorms capable of
   producing small hail/graupel.  Some of this activity, mainly across
   parts of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, may also aid the
   downward transfer of momentum associated with 40-50+ kt
   west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, contributing to a
   risk for damaging surface gusts during the mid to late afternoon
   hours.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 20th:

[JustinRP37]

Trace of snowfall on the ground in Patterson, NY! Woke up to some nice white snow for a change! 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and I am telling you, that dryness is expanding east as years go on and we are going to have that here, doesn't matter what the Atlantic SST are.  Last summer was not a blip, that is going to be the new pattern going forward.

 

 

Strongly disagree here our new climate will not be dry. It will be incredibly humid especially since the Gulf usually feeds us in the summer. Last summer was the blip. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy. Additional showers are likely during the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°

Newark: 52°

Philadelphia: 57°

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 44.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.7°; 15-Year: 45.5°

[gravitylover]

45 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Trace of snowfall on the ground in Patterson, NY! Woke up to some nice white snow for a change! 

Top 3 storms of the year 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If the weeklies and GEFS ext are correct and we get a retrograded west based -NAO block setup come 3/12 on…what good does it feasibly do for us (snow/cold wise) at that point in time given our latitude, sun angle, climo and length of day?

North and west areas can get something-we've had accumulating snow here into early April.  Of course you do need fresh arctic air and the event to occur at night....for the city and immediate coast it's unlikely after about 3/15...

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me ask you this (and my apologies if this has been discussed already): Is the SER a direct result of these SSTs...or is that driven by something else? Someone answered earlier it was a nina thing, but given how strong it's been I was wondering if those warm waters were a cause.

 

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the persistent Ninas help keep the western Atlantic warm in the same way that the insanely persistent +PNA/-EPO in 2013-2015 baked SSTs off the WC. generally the overall pattern drives the SSTs, but I'm sure there's a bit of a feedback loop going on right now that would break once a Nino forces a persistent SE trough

Great analysis by Brooklynwx from the MA forum.

[EastonSN+]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This look is meh. Thanks for pinning winter out west -NAO. Only hope is that the confluence northeast of us is enough. Otherwise it’s probably more congrats NNE. Been my worry all along. 
 

 

Great analysis by CoastalWX in the NE forum.

The NAO is actually pinning the piece of PV west. 

IMO we just need that RNA to weaken. Not disappear but weaken. However this year it's not happening.

At least we are saying goodbye to la Nina next year.

 

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Top 3 storms of the year 

Sad thing is this isn't a joke! But I had to worry for a minute to make sure it wasn't poison ash raining down on us from Ohio and their latest disaster yesterday sadly /s. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Top 3 storms of the year 

..it would shut down the south for a week...

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great analysis by CoastalWX in the NE forum.

The NAO is actually pinning the piece of PV west. 

IMO we just need that RNA to weaken. Not disappear but weaken. However this year it's not happening.

At least we are saying goodbye to la Nina next year.

 

In the image in my previous post, imagine if the la Nina forcing was weaker. You would end up squeezing the PV like an orange and allow the cold to move under the block. Instead the La Nina forcing is so strong the RNA is just too deep and you "link" the SER to the PV.

 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of February are averaging      37degs.(31/43) or -1.

Month to date is       42.4[+7.3].          February should end at      40.9[+5.0].

Reached 62 here yesterday.

Today:    High T was 53 at midnight.      44-46 daytime,  wind ne. to n. to nw., on and off rain till 7pm, 35 tomorrow AM.

41*(73%RH) here at 6am{was 53 at midnight}.       47* at Noon.      48* at 2pm.

[North and West]

These forecasts always look unhinged


.

[donsutherland1]

51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Great analysis by Brooklynwx from the MA forum.

I believe that there is a lot more to the story. ENSO can have some impact via the upper air patterns, but there's more to the story. If one looks at all second and third year La Niña events, the Atlantic SSTA picture is mixed. The Atlantic anomalies are warmer in recent years and generally colder in earlier ones. That seems to reflect a longer-term evolution of SSTAs that is underway.

Second and Third Year La Niña Events:

Longer-Term Evolution of Atlantic SSTAs:

Indeed, the longer-term evolution appears to be consistent with the expectations from the climate models for a range of scenarios. From the IPCC:

[EastonSN+]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

During a sun-filled afternoon, temperatures reached the lower 60s in much of the region. Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler. Some showers are possible.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the much of the remainder of February. Nevertheless, a brief cool shot could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. A snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels.

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the second week of March could see near normal readings. Uncertainty remains high.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.56°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +10.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.886 today.

On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.998 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 2.123 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.2° (5.3° above normal).

 

 

Don, I think you hit the nail on the head with the March 2002 outcome. Looking at the ensembles, the continuation of the RNA pattern domination seems to continue. 

Would you happen to have, or know where to locate, the March 2002 H5 map? I would like to compare to the projected H5 setup.

 

[forkyfork]

the big +pna patterns nickel and dime us

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Don, I think you hit the nail on the head with the March 2002 outcome. Looking at the ensembles, the continuation of the RNA pattern domination seems to continue. 

Would you happen to have, or know where to locate, the March 2002 H5 map? I would like to compare to the projected H5 setup.

 

There were big differences at 500 mb. I just used a scenario for the opening of March. There is some promise on the longer-range ECMWF weeklies, but the skill scores are low out to 3-4 weeks and the mean temperatures are about 5° warmer than they are at the start of the month.

[the_other_guy]

9 hours ago, Albedoman said:

well that its --winter is over. It will be snowing around the SF Bay area this week. What a slap in the face.  Its snowed in Tuscon, Las Vegas and poor Minneapolis is getting 2-3 ft of snow this week, while we can even scrape up an inch f snow for an entire day. Pathetic

Winter was over 3 weeks ago. The rest of it was for entertainment value

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There were big differences at 500 mb. I just used a scenario for the opening of March. There is some promise on the longer-range ECMWF weeklies, but the skill scores are low out to 3-4 weeks and the mean temperatures are about 5° warmer than they are at the start of the month.

Thanks Don!

I hope the weeklies are correct, however not sure what mechanism can dislodge/ weaken the RNA

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Winter was over 6 weeks ago. The rest of it was for entertainment value

FIXED

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe that there is a lot more to the story. ENSO can have some impact via the upper air patterns, but there's more to the story. If one looks at all second and third year La Niña events, the Atlantic SSTA picture is mixed. The Atlantic anomalies are warmer in recent years and generally colder in earlier ones. That seems to reflect a longer-term evolution of SSTAs that is underway.

Second and Third Year La Niña Events:

Longer-Term Evolution of Atlantic SSTAs:

Indeed, the longer-term evolution appears to be consistent with the expectations from the climate models for a range of scenarios. From the IPCC:

Thanks for the analysis. Definitely agree that more research needs to be done on these marine heatwaves and how persistent they’ll be going forward. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Winter was over 3 weeks ago. The rest of it was for entertainment value

Winter didn't even start

Extended Autumn

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the big +pna patterns nickel and dime us

Don had a stat which showed that 6+ events were more common when the SD of the PNA was -1.0 or higher. This year the RNA overwhelmed the blocking.

I would imagine the same for +PNA, where the closer you are to a SD of 0 the better.

[wishcast_hater]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Trace of snowfall on the ground in Patterson, NY! Woke up to some nice white snow for a change! 

Yes, I received about 1" overnight, everything was coated and looked beautiful. I wasnt expecting anything so this was a nice surprise when i woke up.