Winterweatherlover Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: The CMC is on its own now for next weekend. No support from the ICON, GFS, UKMET or the EURO The Euro is a glancing blow for the city/LI with some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: The Euro is a glancing blow for the city/LI with some light snow. Not anymore Cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not anymore Cutter I'm talking about next weekend, so many different waves. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023021912&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Not anymore CutterYep, it’s about to have a huge cutter on 2/28, just looking at 500mb, it’s probably going to show rain to Montreal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 I'm talking about next weekend, so many different waves. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2023021912&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=The EURO has a weak sauce nothing burger for Saturday. Less than an inch for the city and that’s using the Kuchera, it looks throughly unimpressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not anymore Cutter He's talking about next weekend. The Euro shows the city and LI getting brushed by a little snow from a late developer. CMC has a little light snow for the weekend as well. The fact that this trended south and weaker/colder might not be a bad thing at this range. Next weekend is probably still a longshot for accumulating snow for us, but it's something to keep an eye on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: The Euro is a glancing blow for the city/LI with some light snow. Low in the lakes for next Sunday which would kill the Bl unless it weakens. Probably works out for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Low in the lakes for next Sunday which would kill the Bl unless it weakens. Probably works out for Boston Clockwork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EURO has a weak sauce nothing burger for Saturday. Less than an inch for the city and that’s using the Kuchera, it looks throughly unimpressive Sadly it's all we have in this pathetic winter. Tracking a slight chance of getting a small amount of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Low in the lakes for next Sunday which would kill the Bl unless it weakens. Probably works out for Boston It’s probably onto March for wintry hopes. The 2/23-2/28 period looks like it’s trending badly at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 Just now, snowman19 said: It’s probably onto March for wintry hopes. The 2/23-2/28 period looks like it’s trending badly at this juncture Going to need the block to push into western Canada in hopes it improves the pac. If not, this is a repeat of December 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s probably onto March for wintry hopes. The 2/23-2/28 period looks like it’s trending badly at this juncture So when the models show snow its just a long range run but when they don’t it’s close to a lock? I actually usually agree with you about no snow but I don’t think we can just write off the next 10 days yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Low in the lakes for next Sunday which would kill the Bl unless it weakens. Probably works out for Boston Well Boston has only 7 inches of snow for the entire season so far. I’m doubting it works out for them either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Going to need the block to push into western Canada in hopes it improves the pac. If not, this is a repeat of December The funny this is the block in December DID move from an east to a west block and eventually hooked up with the EPO. Two things about December. 1.) Horrible luck, if the second wave was normal strength the third wave could have clocked us. Then this entire winter is just a bad winter instead of a 01/02 replica 2.) The RNA started off way too strong. This hurt the first event which ironically is half of this forums only snowfall I would take a repeat of the December progression in a heartbeat, however like December early on the RNA will be too deep and cause havoc to start. We need the RNA to rise quicker to -1 or better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 18z RGEM has some snow north of the city on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Going to need the block to push into western Canada in hopes it improves the pac. If not, this is a repeat of December The only time the RNA won't be as damaging is by 2nd half of March due to wavelengths but by then you're fighting climo big time. Which is why I think it'll just be a chilly March 15 till early/mid April. NAO could stick around for a while so hopes of a warm early spring are very unlikely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: The only time the RNA won't be as damaging is by 2nd half of March due to wavelengths but by then you're fighting climo big time. Which is why I think it'll just be a chilly March 15 till early/mid April. NAO could stick around for a while so hopes of a warm early spring are very unlikely For the city and coastal plain maybe. We in the northern areas of suburbs still have our share of significant snows during that period, but in this year of no winter I’m already at the point of not caring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Despite considerable mid- and high-level clouds, the mercury rose into the lower 50s across the region today. Tomorrow will be even milder. Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the much of the remainder of February. Nevertheless, a brief cool shot could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. A snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +4.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.515 today. On February 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.147 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 2.003 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.3° (5.4° above normal). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 hours ago, Dark Star said: Unfortunately there is no northwest NYC subforum, so people north of I84 are forced to be part of the NYC metro, which is a completely different winter climate. Also, I'm not buying Urban Heat Island effect for western parts of Union, Essex, Bergen counties in NJ or the undeveloped meadowlands etc. It is the proximity to the ocean that seems to put the NYC metro area on the rain/snow line border more times than not. Other places that stick out into the ocean get more snow in March than NYC or western LI does, that we do know is related to UHI....the more urbanization, the harder it is for snow to stick late in the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 7 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: The funny this is the block in December DID move from an east to a west block and eventually hooked up with the EPO. Two things about December. 1.) Horrible luck, if the second wave was normal strength the third wave could have clocked us. Then this entire winter is just a bad winter instead of a 01/02 replica 2.) The RNA started off way too strong. This hurt the first event which ironically is half of this forums only snowfall I would take a repeat of the December progression in a heartbeat, however like December early on the RNA will be too deep and cause havoc to start. We need the RNA to rise quicker to -1 or better. But there are reasons that second wave wasn't normal strength.....looking at in hindsight, what we can say with accuracy is that the December outcome wasn't a surprise because the entire winter has been like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 It's amazing how we can't even muster a snow to rain events. What a disgusting winter 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 I'm declaring winter over Goodnight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm declaring winter over Goodnight One thing we have been great at this winter is failing. Depending on a backloaded winter or a SSWE to save us is always risky and usually doesn't work out. I think there could still be a rogue winter storm but other then that I agree with you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well Boston has only 7 inches of snow for the entire season so far. I’m doubting it works out for them either. If you asked your average snow-loving Bostonian in November if they would sign up for receiving 1750% as much snow as NYC this winter, I bet they would figured on receiving more than 7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Number of consecutive days without an inch of snow for Central Park: 1) 383 (1998) 2) 381 (1955) 3) 371 (Present) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 Something I saw recently caught my attention, Central Park's highest low temperature ever was on July 2, 1903 at 87 degrees. The high that day was 91 degrees. There was 0.53" of rain that day. I do not believe hourly data was available back then. It seems almost inconceivable that there could be over a half inch of rain in a day (not necessarily all at once) and not have the low temperature fall below 87 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 36 minutes ago, tmagan said: Something I saw recently caught my attention, Central Park's highest low temperature ever was on July 2, 1903 at 87 degrees. The high that day was 91 degrees. There was 0.53" of rain that day. I do not believe hourly data was available back then. It seems almost inconceivable that there could be over a half inch of rain in a day (not necessarily all at once) and not have the low temperature fall below 87 degrees. Thats crazy how is that even possible? What were the highest and lowest dew points that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 14 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: There is an interior NE and NW burbs subforum (even that though varies significantly because the climate of Bergen County/Southern Westchester is drastically different than Sullivan/Ulster counties). In terms of the urban heating it is a factor, ocean is as well but often times in marginal events LI (especially north shore) and even the NJ coast get more accumulation than the city. April 1996 and April 1997 being cases in point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 20, 2023 Share Posted February 20, 2023 46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thats crazy how is that even possible? What were the highest and lowest dew points that day? I do not believe dew point temperatures were taken back then. If they were, though, they didn't keep records of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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