February 2023

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s much less of a factor, as long as it’s not strongly negative (-1 or below). 

Wasn't March 1967 a month when both coasts had a big trough?

The whole hemisphere was much colder back then though

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bkviking said:

20 years today is also the coldest blizzard I’ve been through on Long Island. Great storm. 

long live PD2, one of my best snowstorms ever

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't March 1967 a month when both coasts had a big trough?

The whole hemisphere was much colder back then though

 

It can happen, but it’s not common.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean with a deep RNA it will be tough. That coupled with the fact that this year has been northern stream dominate argues against this solution. However it would be funny if CPK had a ratter while DC had an average snowfall season.

aint no way DC is going to get anywhere near normal, I'd bet both houses they don't even get to 10 inches, just not possible

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Just noticed this storm is dumping about 15 inches on DC Verbatim 

lol this has like a -100% chance of happening

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just posted a quote from Storm Chaser Chuck on his view that there is a +EPO/-PNA/-NAO correlation and that it's hard to snow in that setup.

I think it's honestly a strong coupled La Nina forcing the Aleutian ridge and subsequent downstream effect.

I bet this setup leads to "south based" NAOs and failed NAOs.

We saw the effect in December. We get to see the effects during shorter wavelengths now. 

This would be an interesting experiment and I'm wondering if this is what happened in the 50s to give them that high March average.

The 80s too maybe, though high March snowfalls didn't stand out as much back then, maybe a couple of interesting back loaded winters that could be compared if that does happen again.

 

[wdrag]

Still days away but I think we begin wintry mixes I84 corridor Tue with high elevation accums (1000'?).  18z/18 EC NAM and RGEM joining on this with the RGEM the warmest but am expecting it to cool slightly and look  little more wintry down to I84 in future cycles. Presuming am correct, as op modeling settles on waves of pressure falls rolling east along I80 instead of a full blown  990sMB low for Thursday into the Adirondacks (Ala GFS), then the marginally cool enough for ice airmass along I84 will be difficult to displace.

As usual pay attention to trends that are firm and not windshield wipering cycle to cycle, and go from there.  Myself I favor an I84 burst of sleet-snow to ice Wed afternoon-night and lingering freezing precip in the elevated portions into forenoon Thursday, possibly DRifting south Thu night.  Too warm to hold snow for long except maybe n MA border?   Could there be a few  ice pellets in NYC Tue morning around 15z?  and better chance Wed afternoon?  Thermal profiles are compromised yielding full potential, lacking full sun Sunday-Thursday.  Interesting temp challenges NYC LI EWR next few days with the nearby cooler coastal waters. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Still days away but I think we begin wintry mixes I84 corridor Tue with high elevation accums (1000'?).  18z/18 EC NAM and RGEM joining on this with the RGEM the warmest but am expecting it to cool slightly and look  little more wintry down to I84 in future cycles. Presuming am correct, as op modeling settles on waves of pressure falls rolling east along I80 instead of a full blown  990sMB low for Thursday into the Adirondacks (Ala GFS), then the marginally cool enough for ice airmass along I84 will be difficult to displace.

As usual pay attention to trends that are firm and not windshield wipering cycle to cycle, and go from there.  Myself I favor an I84 burst of sleet-snow to ice Wed afternoon-night and lingering freezing precip in the elevated portions into forenoon Thursday, possibly DRifting south Thu night.  Too warm to hold snow for long except maybe n MA border?   Could there be a few  ice pellets in NYC Tue morning around 15z?  and better chance Wed afternoon?  Thermal profiles are compromised yielding full potential, lacking full sun Sunday-Thursday.  Interesting temp challenges NYC LI EWR next few days with the nearby cooler coastal waters. 

Might be interesting for the Poconos, I'm going to start going there again starting in March, it would be interesting if there was snowcover there when I get there.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

lol this has like a -100% chance of happening

 

Probably not but anything can happen, just takes one big storm. However the odds of a >10 inch event in the mid atlantic decrease significantly by March.  

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Still days away but I think we begin wintry mixes I84 corridor Tue with high elevation accums (1000'?).  18z/18 EC NAM and RGEM joining on this with the RGEM the warmest but am expecting it to cool slightly and look  little more wintry down to I84 in future cycles. Presuming am correct, as op modeling settles on waves of pressure falls rolling east along I80 instead of a full blown  990sMB low for Thursday into the Adirondacks (Ala GFS), then the marginally cool enough for ice airmass along I84 will be difficult to displace.

As usual pay attention to trends that are firm and not windshield wipering cycle to cycle, and go from there.  Myself I favor an I84 burst of sleet-snow to ice Wed afternoon-night and lingering freezing precip in the elevated portions into forenoon Thursday, possibly DRifting south Thu night.  Too warm to hold snow for long except maybe n MA border?   Could there be a few  ice pellets in NYC Tue morning around 15z?  and better chance Wed afternoon?  Thermal profiles are compromised yielding full potential, lacking full sun Sunday-Thursday.  Interesting temp challenges NYC LI EWR next few days with the nearby cooler coastal waters. 

As usual I'd say play close attention to RGEM, it usually does best with precip type in these type of scenarios with a slight warm skew.   

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Probably not but anything can happen, just takes one big storm. However the odds of a >10 inch event in the mid atlantic decrease significantly by March.  

Yes NYC hasn't had one, but as you said earlier, we'd be happy with a 4-6er right now lol.  I think that can be done, it happened in a similar warm winter in 1997-98 pretty late in March too.  Even a 6-8er is possible.

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

aint no way DC is going to get anywhere near normal, I'd bet both houses they don't even get to 10 inches, just not possible

both houses - humblebrag lol

[Winterweatherlover]

The 0Z RGEM trended colder but disorganized for Tuesday, seems like a minor event even if there is some wet snow for northern areas.

 

NVM I wasn't looking at the main event, it's rain for everyone in this subforum on both RGEM and CMC.  

 

 

[GaWx]

 March of 1960, a very cold and wintry March throughout the E US, had a strong -AO and a moderate -NAO. But what may surprise folks is that it had a -PNA (-0.40).

[MJO812]

26 and snowing on Saturday Morning on the gfs for NYC

 

Weak and cold system on the gfs

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 March of 1960, a very cold and wintry March throughout the E US, had a strong -AO and a moderate -NAO. But what may surprise folks is that it had a -PNA (-0.40).

also check out March 1967

this was common in the 60s

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Storm on 2/23- GFS icy for most northern suburbs even near NYC, CMC keeps the frozen precip to only far NW parts of the subforum but did trend a little south from 12Z. 

 

Storm on 2/25-  GFS a light all snow event, CMC a miss to the south

 

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

The models now show another storm on 2/27, at least it's active. 

 

The pattern seems to favor New England but it doesn't look as hopeless as the last few months.

[wilsonvoid1]

so much potential the next couple of weeks i think we're going to get big numbers if things work out in our favor. I didn't check but do we have some blocking coming up with these systems? miller b's favor new england but we could get snow without a doubt. Looks cold enough for snow after the next storm! Euro next


.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 18th:

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and much milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 55°

With the exception of Wednesday, readings will be generally above normal through Friday. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.0°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      41degs.(34/48) or +3.

Month to date is      41.7[+6.8].          Should be    41.5[+5.6] by the 27th.

Reached 44 here  yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     48-52, Wind w. to s., p. cloudy, 46 tomorrow AM.

38*(61%RH) here at 6am.        37* at 7am.       40* at 8am.       41* at 8:30am.      44* at 10am.     45* at Noon.    46*/47* and strong south wind, Noon-3pm.        45* at 4pm.       48* at 10pm.

[snowman19]

Morning thoughts…
Today will be variably cloudy and much milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:
New York City (Central Park): 51°
Newark: 54°
Philadelphia: 55°
With the exception of Wednesday, readings will be generally above normal through Friday. 
Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.0°
Newark: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.0°

The 2/23-2/28 time frame trended poorly for snow on the new model runs. Not really surprising at all. Onto March I guess

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 69 (2017)
LGA: 66 (2017)
NYC: 66 (1997)


Lows:

NYC: 1 (1936)
EWR: 1 (1936)
LGA: 9 (2015)

 

Historical:

 

1884 - Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum)

1888 - A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum)

1954 - High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph, caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm over the southern and central Rockies produced 28 inches of snow at Echo Lake CO, and two feet of snow at Gascon NM and Los Alamos NM. Mora County NM was declared a disaster area following the storm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Valdosta GA with more than five inches of rain, and the 24 hour rainfall total of 7.10 inches at Apalachicola FL more than doubled their previous 24 hour record for February. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to parts of Nebraska, with six inches reported at Loup City and Surprise. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A moist Pacific storm worked its way into New Mexico and southern Colorado. Up to 36 inches of snow blanketed the Wolf Creek and Red Mountain passes of southwest Colorado, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported around Trinidad. In New Mexico, the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains were blanketed with 9 to 28 inches of snow, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts were reported from Taos to Albuquerque. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011 - Strong winds reaching as high as 40 mph with gusts to 53 mph topple the 48 year old National Christmas tree. The 42 foot tall Colorado blue spruce sat just south of the White House on the Ellipse. It was transplanted there from York, Pennsylvania in 1978. The Weather Doctor

 

[donsutherland1]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 2/23-2/28 time frame trended poorly for snow on the new model runs. Not really surprising at all. Onto March I guess

Yes, it was a bad night on the models, but not that surprising. 9 of the 10 most “futile” winters through February 18th (excluding the current one) had less than 15” snowfall when the season ended. The top 5 had less than 10”. Only 1889-90, from a much colder climate era, reached 20” (24.4”).

[SnoSki14]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, it was a bad night on the models, but not that surprising. 9 of the 10 most “futile” winters through February 18th (excluding the current one) had less than 15” snowfall when the season ended. The top 5 had less than 10”. Only 1889-90, from a much colder climate era, reached 20” (24.4”).

The "blocking" shown on the EPS for March may only get us to near normal which by March is too warm for snow. 

I'm 50/50 percent sure we won't get any more snow this season 

[brooklynwx99]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The "blocking" shown on the EPS for March may only get us to near normal which by March is too warm for snow. 

I'm 50/50 percent sure we won't get any more snow this season 

idk about "blocking"... this is a signal for a legit west-based retrograding block. about as strong as you'll see

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk about "blocking"... this is a signal for a legit west-based retrograding block. about as strong as you'll see

It's also moving up 

[gravitylover]

54 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 69 (2017)
LGA: 66 (2017)
NYC: 66 (1997)


Lows:

NYC: 1 (1936)
EWR: 1 (1936)
LGA: 9 (2015)

 

Historical:

 

1884 - Severe thunderstorms spawned sixty tornadoes in the southeastern U.S., killing more than 420 persons and causing three million dollars damage. Georgia and the Carolinas hardest were hit in the tornado outbreak. (David Ludlum)

1888 - A tornado struck Mount Vernon IL. The tornado killed sixteen persons along its 62 mile path. (David Ludlum)

1954 - High winds across the southern half of the Great Plains, gusting to 85 mph, caused the worst duststorms since the 1930s. Graders were needed in places to clear fence high dirt drifts. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A winter storm over the southern and central Rockies produced 28 inches of snow at Echo Lake CO, and two feet of snow at Gascon NM and Los Alamos NM. Mora County NM was declared a disaster area following the storm. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Valdosta GA with more than five inches of rain, and the 24 hour rainfall total of 7.10 inches at Apalachicola FL more than doubled their previous 24 hour record for February. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An upper level weather disturbance brought heavy snow to parts of Nebraska, with six inches reported at Loup City and Surprise. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A moist Pacific storm worked its way into New Mexico and southern Colorado. Up to 36 inches of snow blanketed the Wolf Creek and Red Mountain passes of southwest Colorado, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported around Trinidad. In New Mexico, the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains were blanketed with 9 to 28 inches of snow, and 50 to 60 mph wind gusts were reported from Taos to Albuquerque. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2011 - Strong winds reaching as high as 40 mph with gusts to 53 mph topple the 48 year old National Christmas tree. The 42 foot tall Colorado blue spruce sat just south of the White House on the Ellipse. It was transplanted there from York, Pennsylvania in 1978. The Weather Doctor

 

That 1987 storm put down 30" in downtown Flagstaff and 70" at the Snowbowl ski area. I made it to the ski area base lot at 8am after considerable struggles and numerous efforts with the shovels and skied some of the most incredible powder ever that day. 

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk about "blocking"... this is a signal for a legit west-based retrograding block. about as strong as you'll see

 

This won't cut it for March