February 2023

[EastonSN+]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The awesome thing about a day 9-10 operational run is it shows you exactly what is not going to happen. That will be an inland runner soon enough

I mean with a deep RNA it will be tough. That coupled with the fact that this year has been northern stream dominate argues against this solution. However it would be funny if CPK had a ratter while DC had an average snowfall season.

[Snowfreak09]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Might be easier to just compare it to 2017-18 since 1955-56 was used as an analog for that season.

 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I've not heard of north based blocks unless that's just a conventional block.  We've known about east and west based blocks for a long time, south based blocks became a thing just a few years ago.  I suppose north based blocks must also exist, but maybe they are just the "normal" kind of block?

We've had -PNA with +NAO so the cause and effect scenario must only work under particular circumstances.  Maybe there is something else that is the cause for both of them.

Don's idea of marine heatwaves might be it!

 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That would also explain the northward migrating SE Ridge and the most extreme heat going into New England and SE Canada during the summer too wouldn't it Don?

 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This winter is literally a flat line ________________________

Fill in the blank line lol ______________________

 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That makes sense because north of the NAO block it's like a furnace lol.

If you look at classic NAO blocks they screw northern new england and Maine is almost always blowtorching.  If that block moves south, guess what else moves south lol.....

That Maine blowtorch becomes OUR blowtorch!

Actually you want the arctic to be mild because that is north of the block and the cold air that is supposed to be up there comes down here instead.

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

These will likely cycle back and forth but this marine heatwave issue may be the fly in the ointment in just how far north they can or will get when they do.  Heatwaves always end at some point, but note how oceans always respond much more slowly than the air does, so those marine heatwaves likely last much longer too.

 

 

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was the first I heard the term "virga" being used.

First bad bust I remember, next was the rainy bust of December 1989, then April 1997, then March 2001, then January 2008 and then February 2010 (first storm).  I don't know if that can actually be considered a bust, but it was super disappointing how close we were from 20 inch snowfall totals and ended up with an inch and a half lol.

In a lot of ways the two big busts of 1989 will always be tops in my mind because I expected a snow day out of one and a weekend of sledding out of the other and got neither.

 

 

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You mean because of the SSW?

I thought we already had the 1956 analog in 2018

So are you basically saying with a deeper arctic cold pool we would have had a March more like 2018 also?

 

 

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Might be easier to just compare it to 2017-18 since 1955-56 was used as an analog for that season.

 

 

 

libertybell- see what i just did there-  its called the multiquote function-- please use it.... lurker here, but its beyond obnoxious that 75 percent of the posts in these forums is you feeling the need to reply to every post like your Santa    esp in the mornings.. you wake up to read the forum  seeing a million posts and think wow, must have been good overnight runs... but... nope... just libertybell posting a million times!

[Winterweatherlover]

Growing confidence in chance of >1 inch snow on 2/25 due to initial airmass in place. However looks like good chance it's followed by rain.  

[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This would hurt and be fitting for this year.

It moves north and gives some snow to us on the next frame but agree with Snowman19 on this that this will likely change anyway.   

[EastonSN+]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Are you saying that you don't think that the upcoming -NAO is largely due to the current major SSW? The timing is about right with it starting ~10 days after the SSW although I realize that a -AO usually accompanies the -NAO.

I just posted a quote from Storm Chaser Chuck on his view that there is a +EPO/-PNA/-NAO correlation and that it's hard to snow in that setup.

I think it's honestly a strong coupled La Nina forcing the Aleutian ridge and subsequent downstream effect.

I bet this setup leads to "south based" NAOs and failed NAOs.

We saw the effect in December. We get to see the effects during shorter wavelengths now. 

[bkviking]

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records

1979 had many records that year in Feb.

 

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)

Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)
NYC: 0 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 

20 years today is also the coldest blizzard I’ve been through on Long Island. Great storm. 

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It moves north and gives some snow to us on the next frame but agree with Snowman19 on this that this will likely change anyway.   

Yeah I posted the total snowfall map earlier, which was a perfect reflection of a seasonal snowfall map from the 80s. Snow north and south of us.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I posted the total snowfall map earlier, which was a perfect reflection of a seasonal snowfall map from the 80s. Snow north and south of us.

 

I mean in this winter I would take 5 inches and run with it. 

[brooklynwx99]

the EPS now has a classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. I know that everyone is snakebitten, but this block is becoming stronger and moving up in time

hard not to get a bit excited when you see a retrograding block like this

[wdrag]

anyone notice the latest 18z/18 NAM for the I84 corridor?

 

[Rjay]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS now has a classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. I know that everyone is snakebitten, but this block is becoming stronger and moving up in time

hard not to get a bit excited when you see a retrograding block like this

Looks like it wants to set up a deep wc trough imo.  

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Looks like it wants to set up a deep wc trough imo.  

a -PNA is fine when you have a west-based block like that. east-based would let a SE ridge pop, but I think the -PNA would just keep the pattern active with a Davis Strait block as depicted 

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, Snowfreak09 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

libertybell- see what i just did there-  its called the multiquote function-- please use it.... lurker here, but its beyond obnoxious that 75 percent of the posts in these forums is you feeling the need to reply to every post like your Santa    esp in the mornings.. you wake up to read the forum  seeing a million posts and think wow, must have been good overnight runs... but... nope... just libertybell posting a million times!

Thank

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, Snowfreak09 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

libertybell- see what i just did there-  its called the multiquote function-- please use it.... lurker here, but its beyond obnoxious that 75 percent of the posts in these forums is you feeling the need to reply to every post like your Santa    esp in the mornings.. you wake up to read the forum  seeing a million posts and think wow, must have been good overnight runs... but... nope... just libertybell posting a million times!

you! 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS now has a classic progression with the cutoff Scandi high retrograding towards the Davis Strait. I know that everyone is snakebitten, but this block is becoming stronger and moving up in time

hard not to get a bit excited when you see a retrograding block like this

Except we're still barely BN as cold anomalies remain west.

Additionally all it takes is a stronger -PNA to pump the SE ridge and we stay AN.

I do think this will lead to a cold 2nd half of March into April as wavelengths shortern but by then it'll likely be too late for anything meaningful 

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Looks like it wants to set up a deep wc trough imo.  

I thought a PNA doesn't mean that much in March.

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I thought a PNA doesn't mean that much in March.

It’s much less of a factor, as long as it’s not strongly negative (-1 or below). 

[EastonSN+]

GFS followed EURO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS followed EURO

A sub-500dm 500mb low over Alaska before the storm, trending more neg anomaly on other models/ensembles after.. I doubt that's anything close to snow. 

[donsutherland1]

After a brisk sun-filled day, readings will rebound tomorrow.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the much of the remainder of February. Nevertheless, a brief cool shot could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +4.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.773 today.

On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.001 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.930 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.3° (5.4° above normal).

 

[SnoSki14]

Hints of a PV press for the 23rd. Wouldn't be surprised to see that trend south and lead to icy conditions for northern areas

[donsutherland1]

More and more blossoms are coming into bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Inside the annual Orchid show is underway.
 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

anyone notice the latest 18z/18 NAM for the I84 corridor?

 

Looks like maybe light snow Tuesday there (although it's just the long range NAM). The storm on 2/23 also starting to look potentially icing in the I84 corridor.    

[Winterweatherlover]

2/25 looks good especially interior on 18Z GFS but I do think its a good sign for the coast how far south the snow extends.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2023021818&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

 

[wdrag]

24 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Looks like maybe light snow Tuesday there (although it's just the long range NAM). The storm on 2/23 also starting to look potentially icing in the I84 corridor.    

Yes... expecting Canadian modeling to cool a little as we draw closer, as its typically a warmer model so when it says ice and snow, need to pay attention.  Not sure if anyone is noticing how the OP models are weakening the low center now into the 1006MB range... as many cycles ago advertized by the ensembles, as weak waves of pressure falls cross nPA and out s of LI.  I don't see much support for a 990s low to the Adirondacks. Am expecting a southward edging track to the GFS, more in line with the weakening EC as it tracks east along I80.  This puts big time warming for NYC-LI and NNJ n of I80 in doubt, especially if enough precip falls to form a low ovc along the warm frontal boundary. 

In these somewhat flat upper level flows, low pressure is imo too deep and cycles closer to the verify time should weaken (relatively flat flow). 

 

Will check back tomorrow but as it see, periods of hazardous weather are ahead for at least the elevations of I84 for the next week or two possibly beginning as early as Tuesday.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS followed EURO

It’s encouraging that model support exists. Hopefully, this potential opportunity will be realized.

 

[Eduardo]

Just walked through a Brooklyn neighborhood I haven’t visited since January 2014.  Got some serious tundra nostalgia.  Hoping we get locked into another pattern like that during my lifetime!

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Snowfreak09 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

libertybell- see what i just did there-  its called the multiquote function-- please use it.... lurker here, but its beyond obnoxious that 75 percent of the posts in these forums is you feeling the need to reply to every post like your Santa    esp in the mornings.. you wake up to read the forum  seeing a million posts and think wow, must have been good overnight runs... but... nope... just libertybell posting a million times!

You must have tuned this winter out, there is no such thing as a good overnight run lol.

Santa lol?  Someone needs to let you know it's all a myth

Also, there are a hell of a lot of other interesting things about the weather to talk about other than snow....but then again I'd expect someone to grow out of the Santa myth before realizing that.

Also, that multiquote thing is beyond annoying especially since those posts were over a 2 hour period, not one right after each other

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Yes... expecting Canadian modeling to cool a little as we draw closer, as its typically a warmer model so when it says ice and snow, need to pay attention.  Not sure if anyone is noticing how the OP models are weakening the low center now into the 1006MB range... as many cycles ago advertized by the ensembles, as weak waves of pressure falls cross nPA and out s of LI.  I don't see much support for a 990s low to the Adirondacks. Am expecting a southward edging track to the GFS, more in line with the weakening EC as it tracks east along I80.  This puts big time warming for NYC-LI and NNJ n of I80 in doubt, especially if enough precip falls to form a low ovc along the warm frontal boundary. 

In these somewhat flat upper level flows, low pressure is imo too deep and cycles closer to the verify time should weaken (relatively flat flow). 

 

Will check back tomorrow but as it see, periods of hazardous weather are ahead for at least the elevations of I84 for the next week or two possibly beginning as early as Tuesday.

From the maps it looks like the southward extent of snow would be from Albany to Boston.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS followed EURO

Just noticed this storm is dumping about 15 inches on DC Verbatim