February 2023

[Rjay]

Enough bickering guys

[Rjay]

Just now, Rjay said:

Enough bickering guys

Or at least do it in banter

[donsutherland1]

Colder air is now pressing into the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and noticeably colder than today. Readings will generally reach the lower 40s.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +9.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.767 today.

On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.934 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.337 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.9° (5.0° above normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, 1997-98 is useful, because it shows that it is possible to have less than 1” seasonal snowfall in NYC during a snow season. Without the March 22nd snowfall, that’s where the winter would have finished. Maybe this winter will be the first with less than an inch, but I hope that won’t be the case. I would much rather have at least one moderate snowfall than a record worst snow season.

January-February will easily be the warmest January-February period on record for NYC (likely by more than one-degree). 

Thanks Don. I like to take all 4 months of the winter for month over month we may have two extremely warm setups which lead to a high anomaly (in this case and extreme El Nino effect followed by the la Nina affect). I feel that it could have easily been flipped where December had the El Nino background and January could have had the December setup, thereby removing the back to back month record.

Taking the winter as a whole, we remove the back to back potential (or at least mitigate).

Not arguing at all, just my thought process.

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What’s your snow total since November? …..SCORE!!

lol you can be funny when you want to be, but this of all winters, you really don't need to make fun of anyone....this winter itself is the biggest joke EVER

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don. I like to take all 4 months of the winter for month over month we may have two extremely warm setups which lead to a high anomaly (in this case and extreme El Nino effect followed by the la Nina affect). I feel that it could have easily been flipped where December had the El Nino background and January could have had the December setup, thereby removing the back to back month record.

Taking the winter as a whole, we remove the back to back potential (or at least mitigate).

Not arguing at all, just my thought process.

I mean there are only 3 months in each season, winter really only begins late in December and ends late in March.

December did have the el nino kind of pattern, it's why we didn't get any snow.....el nino's are typically back loaded while la nina's are typically front loaded.

The el nino front end and la nina back end is the worst possible combo to have.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Colder air is now pressing into the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and noticeably colder than today. Readings will generally reach the lower 40s.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +9.27 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.767 today.

On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.934 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.337 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.9° (5.0° above normal).

 

I don't see how this wont beat 2001-02 especially since it looks like late February cooled down in 2002?

Jan-Feb 2002 was nowhere near as warm as this one is and December was closer to average this time, not overly cold.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

Snow flurries in Smithtown.  38°

 

This is huuuuge!

[donsutherland1]

Day 10-14 EPS forecast.

[GaWx]

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think?

--------------------------------

2/13/23 GEFS based NAO prog (see middle graph): look at how + it was at end (for 2/27) with only two members having a -NAO!

 

2/17/23 GEFS based NAO prog: look at the huge drop in it as of 2/27 vs just 4 days ago with half the members now having a -NAO that day (vs only 2 members 4 days ago) and almost all having a -NAO by 3/1:

[USCG RS]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think?

--------------------------------

2/13/23 GEFS based NAO prog (see middle graph): look at how + it was at end (for 2/27) with only two members having a -NAO!

 

2/17/23 GEFS based NAO prog: look at the huge drop in it as of 2/27 vs just 4 days ago with half the members now having a -NAO that day (vs only 2 members 4 days ago) and almost all having a -NAO by 3/1:

Heck of a Write Up. Thank you for this. 

Regarding thoughts, I think that we are poised to go into a period of wintry weather. Classic blocking patterns are beginning to show up on several of the deterministic runs and the GEFS is beginning to catch on as well. The GEFS is not perfect, but it does have it strengths, with one of them being the earlier recognition of large scale pattern shifts. I think we are beginning to see that here. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Had a high of 58 around noon, now 31.  

[Winterweatherlover]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

lol you can be funny when you want to be, but this of all winters, you really don't need to make fun of anyone....this winter itself is the biggest joke EVER

Yes this winter you just predict no snow and anyone would be right, it's been the easiest winter to forecast in a long time. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Snow flurries in Smithtown.  38°

 

This is huuuuge!

Another T. Woo-hoo! 

[Nibor]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Snow flurries in Smithtown.  38°

 

This is huuuuge!

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thanks, I love these tables-- do one at the end of the season too, end of March or middle of April or whenever, I like seeing where everyone is at with relation to each other and what all of the averages are.  JFK's average is already 3 inches behind everyone else lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

so generally speaking from Virginia on south it's a T on the season and between  Maryland and Long Island it's less than an inch.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Day 10-14 EPS forecast.

The question is, if this does occur post February 26 and we get the blocking we need....how long does it last?  Don is your thinking that warmth returns after March 7th?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The GEFS (used in CPC daily updated charts for indices) based NAO forecasts have gone markedly in the -NAO direction over the last 4 day period:
 

- The 2/13 forecast had only 2 members (~6%) with a sub -0.25 NAO (what I consider -NAO) on 2/27. The mean for 2/27 on the 2/13 run was up at +0.5 vs 0 on the 2/16 run and -0.3 on the 2/17 run.

- The # of members with a -NAO on 2/27 rose sharply on the 2/14 run from 2 to 8 members (~25%).

- The 2/15 and 2/16 forecasts each had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/17 forecast has ~15 members (~50%) with a -NAO on 2/27.

- So, the progression from the 2/13 run to the 2/17 run has been 2 to 8 to 10 to 10 to 15 members with a -NAO on 2/27.

- The 2/16 forecast had ~10 members (~33%) with a -NAO on 3/1 vs ~23 (~75%) on the new one

- The 2/16 forecast had only 3 members (~10%) with a sub -1 NAO (what I consider a strong -NAO) on 3/1. The 2/17 forecast has 10 (~33%).

- The 2/16 forecast had 12 members (~40%) with a +0.25+ NAO (what I consider +NAO) on 3/1 vs only 3 (~10%) on the 2/17.

 With this trend toward -NAO for 2/27-3/1+ remaining strong even on today's run as per the above, I wonder if the trend will continue to an even stronger -NAO over the next few days of runs as the models get an even better grasp of the downwelling of the major SSW that won't peak til tomorrow (as per the 10 mb 60N winds). Keep in mind that the main period in question (2/26+) is still 9+ days out, which for this uncommon situation (a major SSW with a dip to ~-15 m/s 10 mb winds at 60N) is probably not the easiest for the models to handle well.

 Also, are the models correct in keeping a +AO with this increasingly strong progged -NAO? Or is the modeled AO going to start dropping if the progged -NAO keeps strengthening? I especially wonder about this since a strong -AO is often the hallmark of a successfully downwelled SSW.

  What do others think?

--------------------------------

2/13/23 GEFS based NAO prog (see middle graph): look at how + it was at end (for 2/27) with only two members having a -NAO!

 

2/17/23 GEFS based NAO prog: look at the huge drop in it as of 2/27 vs just 4 days ago with half the members now having a -NAO that day (vs only 2 members 4 days ago) and almost all having a -NAO by 3/1:

The question is, how long would this blocking pattern last?

March 2018 was an extreme event, I don't think anyone really thinks that will happen...but are we talking about a 10 day period of blocking before it goes back to warmer weather?

 

[LibertyBell]

Nice and sunny this morning, birds are chirping and singing and it's in the 20s lol.....they know it's going to get warmer today!

 

[LibertyBell]

So I just looked at the CPC outlook and they have colder than normal for the NE colder the more north and east you go and closer to normal just south of us and warmer than normal in the SE.  By far the coldest anomalies are out west though the entire west coast to the Rockies is well below normal in their forecast so it looks like the -PNA persists.

Then I saw their three month forecast March-May and they have above normal temperatures for the entire country except for a small sliver of below normal up in the extreme Northern Plains.

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The question is, if this does occur post February 26 and we get the blocking we need....how long does it last?  Don is your thinking that warmth returns after March 7th?

 

If blocking develops, there would be a colder outcome. Right now, beyond the opening of March, there is a lot of uncertainty even as the CFSv2 remains stubbornly warm.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 17th:

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If blocking develops, there would be a colder outcome. Right now, beyond the opening of March, there is a lot of uncertainty even as the CFSv2 remains stubbornly warm.

Yes the outcome from that map looks closer to normal for us, which probably means the last few days of February would still be above normal and the cold if it really comes would get here March 1st.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 17th:

We still have a shot at that 2001-02 record....Don do you have a rough picture of what the average temp was in 2001-02 from this point through the end of February?

Next week will be quite warm again.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cooler. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 45°

Milder air will return tomorrow and a generally mild week lies ahead next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 42.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.9°; 15-Year: 44.7°

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We still have a shot at that 2001-02 record....Don do you have a rough picture of what the average temp was in 2001-02 from this point through the end of February?

Next week will be quite warm again.

February 19-28, 2002 had a mean temperature of 44.2° (the forecast figures for 2023 range between 43.0°-43.5°). The break the 2001-2002 record, the average would need to be 45.0°.

[WX-PA]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 17th:

This will be through March and April?

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

February 19-28, 2002 had a mean temperature of 44.2° (the forecast figures for 2023 range between 43.0°-43.5°). The break the 2001-2002 record, the average would need to be 45.0°.

and neither January nor February average temperatures for the whole month were near what are this time around were they Don?

I think we can get it to 45 especially with how warm it will be next week, likely at least one or two 60 degree highs and lows in the 40s or higher.