Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2023 Author Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just now, Blue Dream said: Do you ever post anything remotely positive? Asking for a friend Has there been anything positive to report on this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Do you ever post anything remotely positive? Asking for a friendRight!! Maybe if I post snow and cold fantasies and wishcasts it will really happen. That would have definitely made this winter much better. Once upon a time….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Take a look here. Look at the RNA and NAO flex. Timing is aligned. I mean the dips and peaks are almost perfectly aligned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 The GFS probably is the most prone to missing the SE Ridge beyond 5 days so we get the strong cold and snowy bias. New run Old run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS probably is the most prone to missing the SE Ridge beyond 5 days so we get the strong cold and snowy bias. New run Old run The period after this storm looks intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Has there been anything positive to report on this winter? Yea I was thinking this. Absolutely nothing has gone right this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Looking at the LR GEFS, once again, the -NAO flexes at the exact same time as the RNA. There were discussions last year when the same thing happened where the NAO was considered "bootleg" and more a RESULT of the RNA rather than a coincidence. So for the third time in 2 years the RNA and NAO are going to flex at the exact same time. I wonder how often we have a strong RNA that a negative NAO suddenly appears. If it were a legit NAO, why can't we get an AO flex at the same time. Has to be a connection. Are you saying that you don't think that the upcoming -NAO is largely due to the current major SSW? The timing is about right with it starting ~10 days after the SSW although I realize that a -AO usually accompanies the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Sleeting, a win I guess this winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Yeah, actually sleeting at a decent clip here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 13 minutes ago, wxman said: Sleeting, a win I guess this winter! Your location must be pretty close to mine, I'm in Neshanic area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: Are you saying that you don't think that the upcoming -NAO is largely due to the current major SSW? The timing is about right with it starting ~10 days after the SSW although I realize that a -AO usually accompanies the -NAO. I am not sure, however the correlation is amazing. Same thing occured last year. The RNA and the NAO flexes at the same time. Why are they so perfectly lined up? I am just asking the board to see if there is a reason for 2 years they align in intensification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Some sleet pellets are mixing in with the light rain in Larchmont, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, FPizz said: Your location must be pretty close to mine, I'm in Neshanic area Yes, indeed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 41 with sleet/graupel from passing stratocumulus with the sun out in Sloatsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If this hyped -NAO takes until 3/13 to develop how much good are you expecting out of it? See March 2018 Not saying that's the outcome but we have to see what happens with the stratospheric warming. 1 hour ago, Blue Dream said: Do you ever post anything remotely positive? Asking for a friend He doesn't =( 27 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea I was thinking this. Absolutely nothing has gone right this winter. That doesn't mean this upcoming pattern will follow the previous patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Rain/Sleet falling here. Temp 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Stinging sleet near Washington Square Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Sleeting now, for this winter that's exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 That doesn't mean this upcoming pattern will follow the previous patterns. March, 2018 is quite possibly one of the worst “analogs” for this upcoming March ever, it ranks right up there in the top 5 dumbest wishcasts ever, like as bad as the fools who were using 1995-96 and 2010-11 back in November for this winter. The people who were using 1957-58, 2002-03, and 2009-10 as “analogs” for the 2015-16 super El Niño, saying it was “west-based” were equally as dumb so it’s a really hard choice for the biggest buffoon award 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 hours ago, Blue Dream said: Do you ever post anything remotely positive? Asking for a friend He gets off on being a Debby Downer. To him this is a positive because it gives him and excuse to be insufferable to others. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 18Z GFS has snow for the next Sat, at least the models are consistent........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 He gets off on being a Debby Downer. To him this is a positive because it gives him and excuse to be insufferable to others. Thank you Dr. Hannibal Lecter. Great psychiatric analysis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 18Z GFS has snow for the next Sat, at least the models are consistent........ Always a plus when the 18z op GFS shows consistently for a fantasy event more than a week out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Thank you Dr. Hannibal Lecter. Great psychiatric analysis! Awww 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Always a plus when the 18z op GFS shows consistently for a fantasy event more than a week out The 12Z Euro and 12Z CMC showed it too. Obviously I don't take models this far out too seriously but it's not like it's impossible it can ever snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Thank you Dr. Hannibal Lecter. Great psychiatric analysis! 5 post please kick in. Your trolling hard even for you today. I get it people pushed you past your limit. March 2018 of is a hard sell but some wintry weather is a climate score 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Yay sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 5 post please kick in. Your trolling hard even for you today. I get it people pushed you past your limit. March 2018 of is a hard sell but some wintry weather is a climate score What’s your snow total since November? …..SCORE!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: The period after this storm looks intriguing That may be the best chance NYC has at going over 1” on the season. But confidence in week two forecasts showing colder and snow chances haven’t been reliable this winter. So we wait to see if it can survive until it gets under 120 hrs. We would probably need more of ridge in the Rockies to slow the Pacific Jet down enough. But there is some hint of a ridge trying to form near the Plains. But it’s still a week two forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Rain/sleet. 43 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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