LibertyBell Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 25 minutes ago, Cfa said: About 30 minutes ago I just randomly started thinking about pools and summertime and then a few minutes ago I saw several people in CT reporting a chlorine smell in the rain, I thought it was my imagination. woah thats scary the pH of this rain should be tested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It poured for 1 minute as that extremely narrow squall line came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: It poured for 1 minute as that extremely narrow squall line came through. we've had heavy rain most of the morning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Being warm and humid in February is getting ridiculous, I'm all for a cool spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, Cfa said: About 30 minutes ago I just randomly started thinking about pools and summertime and then a few minutes ago I saw several people in CT reporting a chlorine smell in the rain, I thought it was my imagination. A friend near New Haven was complaining of a sulfur smell a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 48 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea we've seen this all winter, models show front end snow, then northern stream gets stronger and stronger and ends up all rain. You also need actual cold air to get good front end snow opportunities, the boundary layer is always going to warm fast near the coast in these situations so without an artic airmass it's usually doomed. The difference this time is the models are showing colder air than the other times that they teased us with front end dumps. Right now they're cold enough to start it as snow even well south of the city. The other times they showed it borderline for the city. With those other teases right away I said I thought we had no chance, but this time I think we have a little better chance. Hopefully the models are right about the magnitude of the cold air coming in next friday, which would set us up for some front end snow. Obviously it isn't a great setup and it would probably be a changeover event, but at least it appears there's a better chance of front end snow this time. However a better chance still doesn't mean a great chance. Still have to be skeptical and there's a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Congrats New England. We all know how this is going to trend over the next week. The PNA is dropping all the way to -5 On 1/19/2020 at 9:28 PM, donsutherland1 said: The following are the statistics for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms (1950-2019): 1/1-31: 20% PNA- 2/1-14: 39% PNA- 2/15-29: 45% PNA- 3/1-15: 57% PNA- Now, idk what that strong of a PNA means in late February or early March but I do know, thanks to Don, that generally a -pna isn't such a bad thing this time of year. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Now, idk what that strong of a PNA means in late February or early March but I do know, thanks to Don, that generally a -pna isn't such a bad thing this time of year.When you have a trough on the west coast digging down to Tijuana, it’s a bad thing even in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Squall line coming through Downtown Brooklyn now. More intense than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: When you have a trough on the west coast digging down to Tijuana, it’s a bad thing even in March Moderate rain, a rumble of thunder and whistling wind over the postage stamp. At least for the moment. Stay well all, as always….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yea we've seen this all winter, models show front end snow, then northern stream gets stronger and stronger and ends up all rain. You also need actual cold air to get good front end snow opportunities, the boundary layer is always going to warm fast near the coast in these situations so without an artic airmass it's usually doomed. If we’re relying on SWFE events to bring snow, 95% of the time we’ll be disappointed south of I-84. New England is closer to the cold air source and does much better in those. If the low won’t redevelop south of us and we’re dealing with a low plowing into Erie PA, most of us are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 27 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Being warm and humid in February is getting ridiculous, I'm all for a cool spring. Spring plants are sprouting up everywhere here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Nice squall moved through Syosset, torrential rains, winds at least 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 45 minutes ago, Rjay said: Now, idk what that strong of a PNA means in late February or early March but I do know, thanks to Don, that generally a -pna isn't such a bad thing this time of year. Once the PNA gets to -1.000 or below, the percentage of moderate or greater snowstorms (4" or more) falls. No storms after February 16 with a PNA of -1.000 or below saw 8" or more of snow. But there are a number of 4"-7" storms. In this pathetic winter, that would be a great storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 12Z Euro still has snow for next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 12z Euro still shows snow for us next saturday. It's cold enough for accumulating snow even down the southern NJ coast, so this is why I say we have a little better chance of a front end thump this time. Right now the models are showing much colder air than we've had at the start of all our other storms. Obviously a lot of time for this to trend worse though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro still shows snow for us next saturday. It's cold enough for accumulating snow even down the southern NJ coast, so this is why I say we have a little better chance of a front end thump this time. Right now the models are showing much colder air than we've had at the start of all our other storms. Obviously a lot of time for this to trend worse though. Agree this is real snow verbatim with these temps obviously this could still change a lot. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023021712&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2023021712&fh=204&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 12z Euro still shows snow for us next saturday. It's cold enough for accumulating snow even down the southern NJ coast, so this is why I say we have a little better chance of a front end thump this time. Right now the models are showing much colder air than we've had at the start of all our other storms. Obviously a lot of time for this to trend worse though. Day 8-9 on an op run is an eternity. It was just a few days ago that op models had a snowstorm for the middle of next week, we all know how that trended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Day 8-9 on an op run is an eternity. It was just a few days ago that op models had a snowstorm for the middle of next week, we all know how that trended 12Z Euro now showing ice for the interior on Wed but it's the coldest model currently. It seems to cut off the warm surge and develop a secondary. GFS in the 60s for everyone so obviously some disagreement here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Day 8-9 on an op run is an eternity. It was just a few days ago that op models had a snowstorm for the middle of next week, we all know how that trended Not saying I'm that optimistic. I just think it's at least a slightly better chance than we've had. I never believed the middle of next week or any of the other teases that the models showed this winter. This is the first time I feel we have a little better chance of seeing a front end thump event because of more significant cold air coming in ahead of the storm, but at this early point I think it's best to be skeptical. I'm just saying a slightly better chance. It's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Looking at the LR GEFS, once again, the -NAO flexes at the exact same time as the RNA. There were discussions last year when the same thing happened where the NAO was considered "bootleg" and more a RESULT of the RNA rather than a coincidence. So for the third time in 2 years the RNA and NAO are going to flex at the exact same time. I wonder how often we have a strong RNA that a negative NAO suddenly appears. If it were a legit NAO, why can't we get an AO flex at the same time. Has to be a connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 So this may not have an effect until the 2nd or 3rd week of March “week of 3/6 or 3/13” Tick toc, tick toc….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Looking at the LR GEFS, once again, the -NAO flexes at the exact same time as the RNA. There were discussions last year when the same thing happened where the NAO was considered "bootleg" and more a RESULT of the RNA rather than a coincidence. So for the third time in 2 years the RNA and NAO are going to flex at the exact same time. I wonder how often we have a strong RNA that a negative NAO suddenly appears. If it were a legit NAO, why can't we get an AO flex at the same time. Has to be a connection.Still no signs of -NAM (-AO) response on the models into March. Still +NAM. You’re right, you usually don’t see this NAO/AO disconnect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Now, idk what that strong of a PNA means in late February or early March but I do know, thanks to Don, that generally a -pna isn't such a bad thing this time of year. There were only 2 events during a March La Niña -PNA with NYC going 6”+ since 1999. 03-22-18…..8.4” 03-02-09….8.3” Both of them were west based -PNA events with a ridge in the Rockies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Still no signs of -NAM (-AO) response on the models into March. Still +NAM. You’re right, you usually don’t see this NAO/AO disconnect Yup. I do not understand it however the NAOs we have been seeing have been somewhat useless. They called it bootleg as it was not a true NAO but rather a heat flex effect from a flexing RNA. Would explain the recent SE Ridge linkages with the NAOs, more of a RIDGE than blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 Take a look here. Look at the RNA and NAO flex. Timing is aligned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 -NAO?If this hyped -NAO takes until 3/13 to develop how much good are you expecting out of it? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If this hyped -NAO takes until 3/13 to develop how much good are you expecting out of it? Do you ever post anything remotely positive? Asking for a friend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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