February 2023

[IrishRob17]

8 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I wouldn't lose too much sleep. All of that fantasy snow comes in the extended range of the GFS. You probably have a better shot at winning powerball. 

The sarcasm in his post was rich 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 16th:

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, forkyfork said:

will we ever get a low in that spot again

 

I would say not in our lifetimes if ever.

Very unique track and progression.

Storms like 1888, 1899, 1948, 1978 and 2010 have only occurred once.

I would have added 2013, however 1922 had a very similar setup and track (both had a storm NW merge with a strengthening offshore low, even the snowfall distro was close just a bit displaced south from 2013).

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 63°

A cooler but not cold weekend will follow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 42.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.7°; 15-Year: 44.5°

[jm1220]

10 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I wouldn't lose too much sleep. All of that fantasy snow comes in the extended range of the GFS. You probably have a better shot at winning powerball. 

No worries.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     45degs.(37/53) +8.

Month to date     41.8[+7.1].         Should be      42.9[+7.4] by the 25th.

Reached 64 here yesterday.

Today:      58-60 early, Falling T's to 45 by sunset-28 tomorrow AM, rain from 9am-1pm, wind w. to nw.-breezy.

55*(91%RH) here at 6am.       57* at 7am.    58* at 10am.       55* at 11:30am.       Reached 59* at 1pm.        Strong winds/rain for 5 minutes at 1:30pm.      51* at 2pm.       45* at 5pm.      42* at 6pm.       35* at 9pm.      33* at 10pm.

[EastonSN+]

FWIW, the MJO on both the ECMWF and GEFS now loop 7 and 8.

Not sure what, if any effects will be realized. 

This year the RNA was just too powerful and persistent, so not sure how that changes other than shortening wavelengths.

97/98 with it's hail Mary late March fluke is the only thing standing in the way of the record. I think if you play out 97/98 10 times, 8 times the March event does not happen and CPK stays at 0.5. History repeating itself.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO!

We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March.

Great post by CAPE.

So, it seems the catalyst for the SE ridge/RNA is really the Aleutian ridge, not the Atlantic (Aleutian ridge rises creating the RNA and therefore the SE ridge).

Now my question is, is the Aleutian ridge due to the La Nina (cold anomaly south of the ridge)?

If so, this explains the persistence of the SE ridge and amazing wester have of USA winter.

Have THAT powerful of an RNA would also explain the NAO/SE ridge linkage.

I tend to believe the above since we are downstream of the PAC, and as we all know the PAC drives the bus.

If the RNA was a little weaker, the results would likely be better for March.

Strong La Ninas are terrible (except I do enjoy the warmth).

 

 

[EastonSN+]

I know it's the CFS however look at that Aleutian ridge! Go through each week and that Ridge is completely static. No way we can get a favorable pattern with that. Aleutian ridge goes up, PNA goes down, SE ridge goes up like waves in a pool.

This static Aleutian ridge HAS to be la Nina driven. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 16th:

Thanks Don for tracking this! I have enjoyed reading it all season.

See, this is how I view Global Warming.

We will likely end up warmer than 01/02 by up to 1 degree. That right there is the effect of GW. We have to use a similar background state to compare temps.

I use 97/98 all the time for snowfall comparison, however it's a bad temp comparison since that background state was actually the opposite of 01/02 and this year.

Still, would be nice to get ONE snow event.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is amazing to look at.

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don for tracking this! I have enjoyed reading it all season.

See, this is how I view Global Warming.

We will likely end up warmer than 01/02 by up to 1 degree. That right there is the effect of GW. We have to use a similar background state to compare temps.

I use 97/98 all the time for snowfall comparison, however it's a bad temp comparison since that background state was actually the opposite of 01/02 and this year.

Still, would be nice to get ONE snow event.

 

IMO, 1997-98 is useful, because it shows that it is possible to have less than 1” seasonal snowfall in NYC during a snow season. Without the March 22nd snowfall, that’s where the winter would have finished. Maybe this winter will be the first with less than an inch, but I hope that won’t be the case. I would much rather have at least one moderate snowfall than a record worst snow season.

January-February will easily be the warmest January-February period on record for NYC (likely by more than one-degree). 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know it's the CFS however look at that Aleutian ridge! Go through each week and that Ridge is completely static. No way we can get a favorable pattern with that. Aleutian ridge goes up, PNA goes down, SE ridge goes up like waves in a pool.

This static Aleutian ridge HAS to be la Nina driven. 

You can already see how that would set up a cold early spring with the shorter wavelengths. 

Not surprising that CFS shows a cool April. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by CAPE.

So, it seems the catalyst for the SE ridge/RNA is really the Aleutian ridge, not the Atlantic (Aleutian ridge rises creating the RNA and therefore the SE ridge).

Now my question is, is the Aleutian ridge due to the La Nina (cold anomaly south of the ridge)?

If so, this explains the persistence of the SE ridge and amazing wester have of USA winter.

Have THAT powerful of an RNA would also explain the NAO/SE ridge linkage.

I tend to believe the above since we are downstream of the PAC, and as we all know the PAC drives the bus.

If the RNA was a little weaker, the results would likely be better for March.

Strong La Ninas are terrible (except I do enjoy the warmth).

 

 

The La Niña background state and record WPAC warm pool drives the Aleutians ridge with leads to a -PNA SE Ridge. The record NW Atlantic SSTs drive the stronger SE Ridge or WAR. So both areas of record SSTs enhance the ridge near us. A La Niña with a colder pool of water to our east would have a weaker ridge.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

You can already see how that would set up a cold early spring with the shorter wavelengths. 

Not surprising that CFS shows a cool April. 

I love that pic, shows the wave action across the globe.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is amazing to look at.

The block was too far south to create a big snowstorm for us. It’s the first time that a -2 or lower -AO linked up with the Southeast Ridge. The previous 6 -2 or lower AO Decembers had no hint of a SE Ridge. 
 

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The block was too far south to create a big snowstorm for us. It’s the first time that a -2 or lower -AO linked up with the Southeast Ridge. The previous 6 -2 or lower AO Decembers had no hint of a SE Ridge. 
 

 

Thanks, I also noticed that this looks like the first time the PAC was Aleutian Ridge/RNA. As you alluded too likely caused by the IO warm pool correct?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 16th:

it took some doing but we are close to matching 2001-02 for DJF temps, think we exceed it and set the new record, Don?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks, I also noticed that this looks like the first time the PAC was Aleutian Ridge/RNA. As you alluded too likely caused by the IO warm pool correct?

the south block is the new pattern of the last few years

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The block was too far south to create a big snowstorm for us. It’s the first time that a -2 or lower -AO linked up with the Southeast Ridge. The previous 6 -2 or lower AO Decembers had no hint of a SE Ridge. 
 

 

so the value of using these indices as predictive tools is now decreasing correct Chris?

They mean something different from what they used to mean, so analogs have much lower value

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

the south block is the new pattern of the last few years

Wasn't February 2021 a standard block (not south) or are you only alluding to December.

[forkyfork]

i have allergies today wtf

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is amazing to look at.

Europe ski areas have also had no snow, the Alps are barren and that's where their water comes from

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wasn't February 2021 a standard block (not south) or are you only alluding to December.

I think that was a south block too but the last two years were worse.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don for tracking this! I have enjoyed reading it all season.

See, this is how I view Global Warming.

We will likely end up warmer than 01/02 by up to 1 degree. That right there is the effect of GW. We have to use a similar background state to compare temps.

I use 97/98 all the time for snowfall comparison, however it's a bad temp comparison since that background state was actually the opposite of 01/02 and this year.

Still, would be nice to get ONE snow event.

 

The problem with GW is all the other horrible things it is doing, our local snowfall is a minor concern.  Also, it doesn't look like a geometric progression, once we reach a certain threshold, GW will rapidly accelerate (and so will sea level rise.)  Those of us who live along the coast probably won't be able to live here by 2080.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I would say not in our lifetimes if ever.

Very unique track and progression.

Storms like 1888, 1899, 1948, 1978 and 2010 have only occurred once.

I would have added 2013, however 1922 had a very similar setup and track (both had a storm NW merge with a strengthening offshore low, even the snowfall distro was close just a bit displaced south from 2013).

 

was Feb 1922 the three day snowstorm?

that never happened again

[gravitylover]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i have allergies today wtf

You're the one that always wants warmth. This is all your fault. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

The problem with GW is all the other horrible things it is doing, our local snowfall is a minor concern.  Also, it doesn't look like a geometric progression, once we reach a certain threshold, GW will rapidly accelerate (and so will sea level rise.)  Those of us who live along the coast probably won't be able to live here by 2080.

 

I think we have to look to the past as well and see the results of those warm periods. Mentioned before that during the mideval warm period it was so warm they were growing grapes in England and crops flourished.

We are still emerging from the little ice age, so Carbon Dioxide is working with natural warming to accelerate. We should reach the aforementioned period quicker than normal.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think we have to look to the past as well and see the results of those warm periods. Mentioned before that during the mideval warm period it was so warm they were growing grapes in England and crops flourished.

We are still emerging from the little ice age, so Carbon Dioxide is working with natural warming to accelerate. We should reach the aforementioned period quicker than normal.

Yes sea level was probably different back then too, at one point Long Island was attached to CT (you can see it from the shape of the coastline along the Sound.)

Greenland ice cap melt and also the melt now observed in Antarctica may be what tips sea level rise over the edge.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

You're the one that always wants warmth. This is all your fault. 

My bad day was yesterday lol