February 2023

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We agree to disagree. Just my opinion, the upstream pattern in the PAC is a total train wreck dumpster fire, there’s no arctic blocking (-AO) over the top, an east based NAO isn’t going to do the trick and lock in a 50/50 low and it would have to be timed absolutely perfectly to thread the needle before the low and confluence move away. We all know the SE ridge is going to trend stronger as we get closer in time, that’s a given. I’m skeptical, we’ll see

I am talking about the screen snip he provided, not what may or may not change that look.

In that look, the east based NAO keeps the 50/50 long enough to start as snow.

Whether or not something moves or changes on the next run is not what I am referring to.

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

This gives 42degs.(34/51) or a good +4 or +5 for the rest of the month.

 

The normal high starts to really creep up towards end of month. Any of those 30s would be well BN at that point. 

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures peaked today ahead of a cold front that will bring cooler air to the region later tomorrow through the weekend. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 70°. Many locations saw record warmth. Records included:

Bangor: 52° (tied record set in 2006)
Binghamton: 61° (old record: 58°, 1954)
Boston: 62° (old record: 60°, 1882 and 1910)
Bridgeport: 68° (old record: 57°, 1976, 1982, and 2015) ***New February Record***
Islip: 71° (old record: 59°, 1976 and 2018) ***New February Record***
New Haven: 68° (old record: 59°, 1954) ***New February Record***
New York City-JFK: 64° (old record: 61°, 1976)
New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 1954)
Portland: 57° (old record: 51°, 188, 1891, and 1981)
Providence: 71° (old record: 60°, 1910)
White Plains: 67° (old record: 66°, 1954)

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 22-24 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +12.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.410 today.

On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.387 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.516 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (4.7° above normal).

 

[SnowGoose69]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully the weeklies are right for once 

 

The GEFS has sucked lately beyond D10 so we can probably toss its idea of a bad pattern relative to the GEPS/EPS which have sort of owned it past D10 since about 1/10

[wdrag]

CPC post this afternoon is attached... before it gets flamed on its southern edge... lets figure out way such an intense low 990s is going to head for the Adirondacks for 2/23-24? All 12z/16 ensemble means (tropical tidbits ensemble and select MSLP/PWAR) are 10-20MB weaker and more direct for the Catskills... which at least leaves an ice option on the table for 2/23-24 for the nw-ne suburbs. 

 

[forkyfork]

will we ever get a low in that spot again

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

will we ever get a low in that spot again

 

It’s nice to look back on those maps and think it did snow on “insert date” 7 years ago 

[brooklynwx99]

not sure if I've prayed harder for anything more in my life

[Roger Smith]

March starts great according to the GFS 18z. This may be like my casino visit where I started great with a couple of jacks.

 

[vegan_edible]

18z gfs decided to hit the crackpipe this evening and have some delusions of grandeur

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, vegan_edible said:

18z gfs decided to hit the crackpipe this evening and have some delusions of grandeur

Feb 2021 redux to a T lmao

[psv88]

It’s been a remarkable winter really. Never seen anything like it. No snow within 150 miles of the city all month. 
 

hasn’t felt like winter at all. The ground is starting to come alive and the bugs are out. Are we in Norfolk?

[Dark Star]

22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s been a remarkable winter really. Never seen anything like it. No snow within 150 miles of the city all month. 
 

hasn’t felt like winter at all. The ground is starting to come alive and the bugs are out. Are we in Norfolk?

Winter was unofficially over January 30, 2023.  If by then the long range doesn't given any sign of a change, you can call the season off.  No snow, no sustained snow cover, nothing frozen, the ground is still soft.  Actually, besides the two cold outbreaks that lasted a total of 72 hours, we did not have a winter.  Just a place holder between fall and spring...

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

18z gfs decided to hit the crackpipe this evening and have some delusions of grandeur

It's coming 

[Stormlover74]

41 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

18z gfs decided to hit the crackpipe this evening and have some delusions of grandeur

All of that falls with temps between 33 and 37

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

18z gfs decided to hit the crackpipe this evening and have some delusions of grandeur

Got to have the daily porn maps to keep the fantasy going 

[hudsonvalley21]

56 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

All of that falls with temps between 33 and 37

And with the warm ground temps and the increasing sun angle. It’s probably 1-2” of slop. 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

March starts great according to the GFS 18z. This may be like my casino visit where I started great with a couple of jacks.

 

The 18z, March comes in like a Lion, watch the 00z run come in like a kitten. 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

18z gfs decided to hit the crackpipe this evening and have some delusions of grandeur

Nice to look at even if fantasy. This would make the winter for sure. March is supposed to be colder but we’ll see. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

It’s been a remarkable winter really. Never seen anything like it. No snow within 150 miles of the city all month. 
 

hasn’t felt like winter at all. The ground is starting to come alive and the bugs are out. Are we in Norfolk?

I was just in Albany and even there there are a few small parking lot piles and that’s it, on 2/16. Remarkable’s right. 

[CIK62]

We must be getting closer to some snow as there are more fantasies.      40" Fantasies since the ENS does not even have 1".

 

[jm1220]

Just now, CIK62 said:

We must be getting closer to some snow as there are more fantasies.      40" Fantasies since the ENS does not even have 1".

Guess I won’t be sleeping for 16 days. 

[donsutherland1]

Latest ECMWF weekly forecast for February 27-March 6: a modest improvement from Monday’s run.

[HeadInTheClouds]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Guess I won’t be sleeping for 16 days. 

I wouldn't lose too much sleep. All of that fantasy snow comes in the extended range of the GFS. You probably have a better shot at winning powerball. 

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I was just in Albany and even there there are a few small parking lot piles and that’s it, on 2/16. Remarkable’s right. 

my hometown <3

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures peaked today ahead of a cold front that will bring cooler air to the region later tomorrow through the weekend. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 70°. Many locations saw record warmth. Records included:

Bangor: 52° (tied record set in 2006)
Binghamton: 61° (old record: 58°, 1954)
Boston: 62° (old record: 60°, 1882 and 1910)
Bridgeport: 68° (old record: 57°, 1976, 1982, and 2015) ***New February Record***
Islip: 71° (old record: 59°, 1976 and 2018) ***New February Record***
New Haven: 68° (old record: 59°, 1954) ***New February Record***
New York City-JFK: 64° (old record: 61°, 1976)
New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 1954)
Portland: 57° (old record: 51°, 188, 1891, and 1981)
Providence: 71° (old record: 60°, 1910)
White Plains: 67° (old record: 66°, 1954)

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 22-24 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +12.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.410 today.

On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.387 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.516 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (4.7° above normal).

 

Officially hit 70-- 71 at Islip is amazing for Long Island in February too!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures peaked today ahead of a cold front that will bring cooler air to the region later tomorrow through the weekend. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 70°. Many locations saw record warmth. Records included:

Bangor: 52° (tied record set in 2006)
Binghamton: 61° (old record: 58°, 1954)
Boston: 62° (old record: 60°, 1882 and 1910)
Bridgeport: 68° (old record: 57°, 1976, 1982, and 2015) ***New February Record***
Islip: 71° (old record: 59°, 1976 and 2018) ***New February Record***
New Haven: 68° (old record: 59°, 1954) ***New February Record***
New York City-JFK: 64° (old record: 61°, 1976)
New York City-LGA: 69° (tied record set in 1954)
Portland: 57° (old record: 51°, 188, 1891, and 1981)
Providence: 71° (old record: 60°, 1910)
White Plains: 67° (old record: 66°, 1954)

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 22-24 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +12.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.410 today.

On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.387 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.516 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (4.7° above normal).

 

Islip and Bridgeport beat their previous records by 12 and 11 degrees that's pretty amazing

 

[GaWx]

 The 0Z GEFS mean has what appears to me the strongest -NAO yet for any GEFS run for late month into early March. It gets started ~2/26 and, intensifies into the first part of March, and persists through the end (3/4). This could very well be mainly due to the current SSW downwelling into the troposphere, which typically takes at least 10-14 days to get started assuming it actually does work its way down.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Nice to look at even if fantasy. This would make the winter for sure. March is supposed to be colder but we’ll see. 

Nothing could make this Winter. If you gave me March 1888 it still can’t receive a passing grade. 

[snowman19]

 The 0Z GEFS mean has what appears to me the strongest -NAO yet for any GEFS run for late month into early March. It gets started ~2/26 and, intensifies into the first part of March, and persists through the end (3/4). This could very well be mainly due to the current SSW downwelling into the troposphere, which typically takes at least 10-14 days to get started assuming it actually does work its way down.

I really hope this doesn’t turn into a mid-March to the end of May raw rain and cloud fest with another totally ruined spring