February 2023

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think you're wishing and hoping because you love snow so much you forget how bad climate change is becoming and how much worse it will get and in very short order.  March 2012, then December 2015 and now January 2022, we'll see how soon the next one happens, I'm betting on 5 years or less.

 

Nah, it's going to take longer for CC to make this type of winter a reoccurring theme. We are in a  warmer version of 96/97 through 2001/2002 (or 88/89 through 91/92).

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nah, it's going to take longer for CC to make this type of winter a reoccurring theme. We are in a  warmer version of 96/97 through 2001/2002 (or 88/89 through 91/92).

The warmer deviations are actually coming from the north (not from the south)...have a look at how much seasonal temperatures have warmed in northern Vermont-- it's something like 5.5 - 6 degrees of warming.

Because it's a warmer version you're seeing less snow and more reliance on single large events for more of your seasonal snowfall, so more of a chance of completely striking out per winter when that doesn't work out.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The warmer deviations are actually coming from the north (not from the south)...have a look at how much seasonal temperatures have warmed in northern Vermont-- it's something like 5.5 - 6 degrees of warming.

Because it's a warmer version you're seeing less snow and more reliance on single large events for more of your seasonal snowfall, so more of a chance of completely striking out per winter when that doesn't work out.

 

 

But why did it just start after the 17/18 season. What changed in one season? I agree with Don in that our winters are getting shorter, however I do not believe a one season switch occurred.

Also it reminds me so much of 96/97 through 01/02 right after the epic 95/96 season.

Man the 90s were garbage for snow.

[mannynyc]

GFS is north for Wednesday. Now gives the city a whole half inch

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

But why did it just start after the 17/18 season. What changed in one season? I agree with Don in that our winters are getting shorter, however I do not believe a one season switch occurred.

Also it reminds me so much of 96/97 through 01/02 right after the epic 95/96 season.

Man the 90s were garbage for snow.

Aside from the temperatures warming, the new normal is a couple of seasons of good snowfall intermixed with several seasons of really bad snowfall, with perhaps one or two "normal seasons" tossed in.  This season isn't the new normal, it's an extreme, but it's an extreme worse than any other extreme has been.  Last season is probably closer to what the new normal will look like.

LOL ABC just came out with a "study" that climate change could enhance the chances of a fungi pandemic that will mutate humanity.  haha

 

[wdrag]

Kind of looks like tonight is your night for first measurable and I think PHL too... Midnight to 9AM.  10 to 1 ratio before dawn and maybe 12 to 1 as it ends.

N of I80... fluffy whatever occurs at 12 to 14 to 1 ratios.  

 

Here's hoping, 

 

Think our Canadian did a pretty good job again, for last night and EC finally at 18z/30... late to the table.  EC shutout looks a little shaky to me.

 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

But why did it just start after the 17/18 season. What changed in one season? I agree with Don in that our winters are getting shorter, however I do not believe a one season switch occurred.

Also it reminds me so much of 96/97 through 01/02 right after the epic 95/96 season.

Man the 90s were garbage for snow.

93-94 and 95-96 really made up for it

[LibertyBell]

Just now, wdrag said:

Kind of looks like tonight is your night for first measurable and I think PHL too... Midnight to 9AM.  10 to 1 ratio before dawn and maybe 12 to 1 as it ends.

N of I80... fluffy whatever occurs at 12 to 14 to 1 ratios.  

 

Here's hoping, 

 

Think our Canadian did a pretty good job again, for last night and EC finally at 18z/30... late to the table.  EC shutout looks a little shaky to me.

 

Goldberg thinks chances of measurable are 20-30% and said that the timeframe for snow is from 3 AM to 5 AM with the snow fighting dry air but still says a quarter inch is possible.

 

[nycwinter]

temps are trending warmer for friday night then yesterday single digits to about 10  for nyc..

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

temps are trending warmer for friday night then yesterday single digits to about 10  for nyc..

Gfs maybe. Euro still damn cold 

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr is dry now lol

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr is dry now lol

 

Yeah the HRRR has pretty much jumped ship on this while everything else seems to be going the other way.  

[mannynyc]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Yeah the HRRR has pretty much jumped ship on this while everything else seems to be going the other way.  

The HRRR has flipped every other run. Very odd.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

The HRRR has flipped every other run. Very odd.

 

It nailed this morning's activity last night but it was showing the same thing repeateadly

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs maybe. Euro still damn cold 

that was the nws forecast for nyc

[Allsnow]

18z euro snowier 

[gpsnavigator]

Seems like it might be too dry for anything up in north jersey.  Dewpoints are in the low teens and even a few single numbers.  I could be wrong.

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, gpsnavigator said:

Seems like it might be too dry for anything up in north jersey.  Dewpoints are in the low teens and even a few single numbers.  I could be wrong.

I agree.  Not expecting much north of 78 or west of 287.  Flurries to a dusting.

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro snowier 

.5-1 city 

1-2 phl 

[weathermedic]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs maybe. Euro still damn cold 

NWS OKX AFD:

The northern branch of the polar jet becomes the dominant
stream this period as a quick shot of arctic air arrives Friday
into Saturday. However, global models while still very cold,
have trended a bit warmer. This will be the coldest airmass
since Christmas eve with temperatures Friday night and Saturday
about 20 degrees below normal. The arctic cold front slips
through Friday morning with the coldest air arriving Friday
night with 85h temps approaching -25C. With no downstream block
over the north Atlantic, this will be a fleeting airmass. In
addition, with strong NW winds behind the cold front, gusts of
25 to 35 mph will produce wind chills likely at advisory levels
for much of the area. The threat for warning level criteria
inland is diminishing. Lows Friday night inland are forecast to
drop to around zero with the single digits to around 10 at the
coast. Highs Saturday are forecast to range from the mid and
upper teens inland, to around 20 at the coast. This is about 3
to 5 degrees warmer than 24h ago.

[wdrag]

Let's see what happens: AGAIN!!!! EC late to the table for a minor event, but one that will be important for the climo annals. AND... if the EC is right... 1" could mean a bunch of accidents s of I80 tomorrow morning. 

 

I also noticed and not posted here, but the 12z EPS snowfall has grown from nothing 12z/30 to widespread amounts in NJ/e PA/LI.

Let's see what happEns. I'm worried I in Wantage in extremenw NJ will have only Trace but I can see a non-issued hazard for much of NJ/parts of LI tomorrow morning (SPS I think).

 

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

NWS OKX AFD:

The northern branch of the polar jet becomes the dominant
stream this period as a quick shot of arctic air arrives Friday
into Saturday. However, global models while still very cold,
have trended a bit warmer. This will be the coldest airmass
since Christmas eve with temperatures Friday night and Saturday
about 20 degrees below normal. The arctic cold front slips
through Friday morning with the coldest air arriving Friday
night with 85h temps approaching -25C. With no downstream block
over the north Atlantic, this will be a fleeting airmass. In
addition, with strong NW winds behind the cold front, gusts of
25 to 35 mph will produce wind chills likely at advisory levels
for much of the area. The threat for warning level criteria
inland is diminishing. Lows Friday night inland are forecast to
drop to around zero with the single digits to around 10 at the
coast. Highs Saturday are forecast to range from the mid and
upper teens inland, to around 20 at the coast. This is about 3
to 5 degrees warmer than 24h ago.

I noticed the 12z/31 EC reverted back to its brutal forecast of 12z/30...the 00z/31 moderated. I don't know what will happen, especially without snow cover but north-northwest (340 degs) wind delivery makes it easier to get close to 2 above Sat morning-i.e. coldest since Jan 2019...again I don't venture confidence for a CP low of 2 above? .Also can parts of LI have flurries from sound effect snow Fri night-Saturday morning.

I would think heavy freezing spray seems possible but that's all NWS to figure out.

[guinness77]

Half-inch possible between 3a and 5a? You think they’ll have delayed school openings? 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Let's see what happens: AGAIN!!!! EC late to the table for a minor event, but one that will be important for the climo annals. AND... if the EC is right... 1" could mean a bunch of accidents s of I80 tomorrow morning. 

 

I also noticed and not posted here, but the 12z EPS snowfall has grown from nothing 12z/30 to widespread amounts in NJ/e PA/LI.

Let's see what happEns. I'm worried I in Wantage in extremenw NJ will have only Trace but I can see a non-issued hazard for much of NJ/parts of LI tomorrow morning (SPS I think).

 

Would be pretty funny if philly scores and the park strikes out. Regardless, if it’s a dusting late night don’t expect that to be recorded. 
 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Let's see what happens: AGAIN!!!! EC late to the table for a minor event, but one that will be important for the climo annals. AND... if the EC is right... 1" could mean a bunch of accidents s of I80 tomorrow morning. 

 

I also noticed and not posted here, but the 12z EPS snowfall has grown from nothing 12z/30 to widespread amounts in NJ/e PA/LI.

Let's see what happEns. I'm worried I in Wantage in extremenw NJ will have only Trace but I can see a non-issued hazard for much of NJ/parts of LI tomorrow morning (SPS I think).

 

Based on that map it would be 1" here and 2" near Fire Island

That's very like December 1989 kind of snow.

 

[SnoSki14]

HRRR doesn't have anything so I doubt Euro has a clue. Likely too dry 

[winterwx21]

58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

HRRR doesn't have anything so I doubt Euro has a clue. Likely too dry 

HRRR shifting way south might've been onto something. NAM just came in south. Not as far south as HRRR but the 1 inch snows are for central-southern NJ with nothing for northern NJ. We might get screwed in our 1 chance to finally get a little accumulating snow this winter. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

HRRR doesn't have anything so I doubt Euro has a clue. Likely too dry 

If I was to bet it would be a round of flurries/light snow like today except it'll be colder so everyone gets snow. Coating to maybe half inch. Just to kick us in the teeth though I also bet what happens favors south of the city so they can jump ahead of us if even by a tiny bit.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If I was to bet it would be a round of flurries/light snow like today except it'll be colder so everyone gets snow. Coating to maybe half inch. Just to kick us in the teeth though I also bet what happens favors south of the city so they can jump ahead of us if even by a tiny bit.

Somewhere like Philly or toms river will probably end up with 2" 

[Volcanic Winter]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

HRRR shifting way south might've been onto something. NAM just came in south. Not as far south as HRRR but the 1 inch snows are for central-southern NJ with nothing for northern NJ. We might get screwed in our 1 chance to finally get a little accumulating snow this winter. 

I'll take what I can get but part of the appeal for me was that this was to be an area wide event. Don't want anyone getting screwed...