Volcanic Winter Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 I’m averaging 39.9 on my home weather station for the month of February. Positively wintry compared to the 41.5 for January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I’m averaging 39.9 on my home weather station for the month of February. Positively wintry compared to the 41.5 for January. Calculate that average after this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 70° or warmer is becoming much more common in February since 2011 at places like Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0 6 2023 70 13 - 2022 70 0 - 1999 70 0 - 1939 70 0 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 65° Cooler air will begin to arrive late tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Newark: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.5°; 15-Year: 44.3° it may hit 70 on long island today, brighr and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it may hit 70 on long island today, brighr and sunny The clouds may roll in too soon for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 32 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Calculate that average after this week Nope, not checking it again until next December Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: It has been a rough winter everywhere Except the west. Incredible winter out there with snow in Vegas and Tuscan. Ridge here trough there. Records warmth here opposite there. 1990s style! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 15th: Gonna be a real close call for temps to beat out 02 and 32 with the cooler temps expected next week. I hope we can break the record but may be a nail biter at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(39/53)or +9. Month to date is 40.4[+5.7]. Should be 42.3[+6.8] by the 24th. Reached 64 here yesterday after a slow start: 46*(67%RH) here at 6am. 45* at 7am. 47* at 9am. 50* at 11am. Stuck at 50* with south wind here at Noon. Still 50* at 1pm. From 2:00pm-2:15pm up 5 to 55*,-just like that. 57* at 3pm. 60* at 3:30pm. 62* at 4pm. 63* at 4:30pm. Reached 64* at 4:40pm. 62* at 5pm. 60* at 5:30pm-9:30pm. 59* at 10pm and 11pm Today: 58-62, clouding up, rain by 1pm., 55 tomorrow AM. Another HW coming in March now: 57*(59%RH) here at 6am. 59* at 8am. 60* at 8:30am. 61* at 9am. 59* at 10am. 62* at Noon. 64* at 12:30pm. 58* at 2pm. 57* at 3pm. 54* at 3:30pm-rain. 58* at 6pm. 56* at 9pm and low level fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Gonna be a real close call for temps to beat out 02 and 32 with the cooler temps expected next week. I hope we can break the record but may be a nail biter at the end. We should make a run on 1st place next few days then it will come down to the last week of the month. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2022-2023 40.9 13 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.1 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 13 3 2015-2016 40.1 0 4 2011-2012 40.0 0 5 1997-1998 39.4 0 6 2016-2017 38.9 0 7 1931-1932 38.8 0 8 2019-2020 38.7 0 9 1990-1991 38.1 0 10 1982-1983 37.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2022-2023 37.1 13 - 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 1997-1998 36.6 25 4 2016-2017 36.1 1 5 2019-2020 35.7 3 6 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 7 1996-1997 34.8 32 8 1952-1953 34.4 0 9 2012-2013 33.8 0 10 2006-2007 33.7 0 - 1982-1983 33.7 3 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 39.2 0 2 2001-2002 38.7 0 3 2022-2023 38.6 13 4 1997-1998 38.5 0 5 2011-2012 38.3 0 6 2019-2020 37.4 0 7 1994-1995 36.9 0 8 2016-2017 36.8 0 9 1998-1999 36.5 0 10 1990-1991 36.2 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 39.5 0 2 2001-2002 38.9 0 3 2015-2016 38.8 0 4 2022-2023 38.1 14 5 1997-1998 38.0 0 6 2011-2012 37.9 0 7 2016-2017 37.6 0 8 2019-2020 37.5 0 9 1948-1949 37.4 0 10 1936-1937 37.2 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We should make a run on 1st place next few days then it will come down to the last week of the month. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2022-2023 40.9 13 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.1 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 13 3 2015-2016 40.1 0 4 2011-2012 40.0 0 5 1997-1998 39.4 0 6 2016-2017 38.9 0 7 1931-1932 38.8 0 8 2019-2020 38.7 0 9 1990-1991 38.1 0 10 1982-1983 37.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2022-2023 37.1 13 - 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 1997-1998 36.6 25 4 2016-2017 36.1 1 5 2019-2020 35.7 3 6 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 7 1996-1997 34.8 32 8 1952-1953 34.4 0 9 2012-2013 33.8 0 10 2006-2007 33.7 0 - 1982-1983 33.7 3 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 39.2 0 2 2001-2002 38.7 0 3 2022-2023 38.6 13 4 1997-1998 38.5 0 5 2011-2012 38.3 0 6 2019-2020 37.4 0 7 1994-1995 36.9 0 8 2016-2017 36.8 0 9 1998-1999 36.5 0 10 1990-1991 36.2 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 39.5 0 2 2001-2002 38.9 0 3 2015-2016 38.8 0 4 2022-2023 38.1 14 5 1997-1998 38.0 0 6 2011-2012 37.9 0 7 2016-2017 37.6 0 8 2019-2020 37.5 0 9 1948-1949 37.4 0 10 1936-1937 37.2 0 I think this is the year to do it. We have a perfect setup. Triple dip la Nina creating a deep/static trough out west and the late/potentially not till spring change to Blocking in the arctic. My gut says the cold push gets delayed a few days and the record is ours. Really shows how everything has to lineup right to break records. If that cold push happened a few days earlier we lose the record. Timing is everything as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Except the west. Incredible winter out there with snow in Vegas and Tuscan. Ridge here trough there. Records warmth here opposite there. 1990s style! It's needed....the west needs this way more than we do and hopefully they get many years of it, there is a horrible megadrought there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: We should make a run on 1st place next few days then it will come down to the last week of the month. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.6 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2022-2023 40.9 13 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.2 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.1 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 13 3 2015-2016 40.1 0 4 2011-2012 40.0 0 5 1997-1998 39.4 0 6 2016-2017 38.9 0 7 1931-1932 38.8 0 8 2019-2020 38.7 0 9 1990-1991 38.1 0 10 1982-1983 37.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 37.2 0 - 2001-2002 37.2 0 2 2022-2023 37.1 13 - 2011-2012 37.1 1 3 1997-1998 36.6 25 4 2016-2017 36.1 1 5 2019-2020 35.7 3 6 1998-1999 35.1 25 - 1990-1991 35.1 8 7 1996-1997 34.8 32 8 1952-1953 34.4 0 9 2012-2013 33.8 0 10 2006-2007 33.7 0 - 1982-1983 33.7 3 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 39.2 0 2 2001-2002 38.7 0 3 2022-2023 38.6 13 4 1997-1998 38.5 0 5 2011-2012 38.3 0 6 2019-2020 37.4 0 7 1994-1995 36.9 0 8 2016-2017 36.8 0 9 1998-1999 36.5 0 10 1990-1991 36.2 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1931-1932 39.5 0 2 2001-2002 38.9 0 3 2015-2016 38.8 0 4 2022-2023 38.1 14 5 1997-1998 38.0 0 6 2011-2012 37.9 0 7 2016-2017 37.6 0 8 2019-2020 37.5 0 9 1948-1949 37.4 0 10 1936-1937 37.2 0 Hows it looking for JFK Chris, 01-02 was the champ here but this making a run for the record. Hopefully we get the same kind of spring and summer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think this is the year to do it. We have a perfect setup. Triple dip la Nina creating a deep/static trough out west and the late/potentially not till spring change to Blocking in the arctic. My gut says the cold push gets delayed a few days and the record is ours. Really shows how everything has to lineup right to break records. If that cold push happened a few days earlier we lose the record. Timing is everything as they say. Continues to look like a winter climate shift to much warmer occurred with the record +13.3 December 2015. A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23...+5.7 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+5.0 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 15th: Weird how 1931-32 and 2001-02 are almost identical in all respects lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Continues to look like a winter climate shift to much warmer occurred with the record +13.3 December 2015. A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23...+5.7 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+5.0 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 If you look at the statistics we are becoming warmer in all phases of ENSO, and both with and without blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: Weird how 1931-32 and 2001-02 are almost identical in all respects lol If we did not have so much rain in 97 98, I feel that it would have also been at the top. Although hard to get this level of sunshine in a strong Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hows it looking for JFK Chris, 01-02 was the champ here but this making a run for the record. Hopefully we get the same kind of spring and summer too JFK is further back in 5th place. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 40.9 0 2 2001-2002 40.6 0 3 2011-2012 40.0 0 4 2016-2017 39.5 0 5 2022-2023 39.3 13 6 1997-1998 39.1 0 7 2019-2020 38.7 0 8 1982-1983 38.6 0 9 1990-1991 38.4 0 10 1974-1975 37.9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: If we did not have so much rain in 97 98, I feel that it would have also been at the top. Although hard to get this level of sunshine in a strong Nino. that late march fluke storm is what screwed it out of the lowest snowfall record, otherwise we would be competing with it instead Did you look at how crazy snowfall amounts were in the 90s-- 3 out of 4 years with less than 10 inches of snow sandwiched by two historic years with over 50 inches each lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Continues to look like a winter climate shift to much warmer occurred with the record +13.3 December 2015. A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. NYC Feb 23...+5.7 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+5.0 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.9 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 Seems like the super Nino flipped the switch. Do you think the 97/98 super Nino did the same in ushering in the snowy 2000/2010s? Or perhaps another event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, bluewave said: JFK is further back in 5th place. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015-2016 40.9 0 2 2001-2002 40.6 0 3 2011-2012 40.0 0 4 2016-2017 39.5 0 5 2022-2023 39.3 13 6 1997-1998 39.1 0 7 2019-2020 38.7 0 8 1982-1983 38.6 0 9 1990-1991 38.4 0 10 1974-1975 37.9 0 Because of the cooling sea breeze? Because it sure hasn't snowed here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Seems like the super Nino flipped the switch. Do you think the 97/98 super Nino did the same in ushering in the snowy 2000/2010s? Or perhaps another event? lol maybe the triple dip la nina ushured in a snowier era after 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: that late march fluke storm is what screwed it out of the lowest snowfall record, otherwise we would be competing with it instead Did you look at how crazy snowfall amounts were in the 90s-- 3 out of 4 years with less than 10 inches of snow sandwiched by two historic years with over 50 inches each lol Yeah I grew up in the 80s and 90s and it was horrific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: lol maybe the triple dip la nina ushured in a snowier era after 2002 Don't sleep on 2000/2001, solidly above average snowfall year with a December blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I grew up in the 80s and 90s and it was horrific. this winter is out of the 89-90 playbook I feel like I've been reliving it ever since late December, I was using that analog going all the way back to Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Don't sleep on 2000/2001, solidly above average snowfall year with a December blizzard. That was a very good winter and would have been historic were it not for the March bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah I grew up in the 80s and 90s and it was horrific. Also, this is why 2019 to now has not shaken me. I lived through so many 5 plus year snowless periods that 2000 through 2018 is an outlier to me while the past 5 years, 2 ratters, 2 below average and one above average snowfall winter feels normal to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The main sensible differences between this year and 89-90 are-- it was colder that season (even when it was warm it was still colder than it is now, and of course December was a lot colder and we had these near snowstorm busts too) and we had a Thanksgiving snowstorm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 For reference: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Also, this is why 2019 to now has not shaken me. I lived through so many 5 plus year snowless periods that 2000 through 2018 is an outlier to me while the past 5 years, 2 ratters, 2 below average and one above average snowfall winter feels normal to me. last winter was actually not bad, it was about normal for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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