North and West Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 67 here currently. I could appreciate this if we at least had a quasi normal winter, but given this is occurring during one of the warmest winters ever with almost zero snowfall, I’m actually fairly disgusted by it. By all means, enjoy it guys. Someone should, right? I mean other than all the bugs I see just having a grand old time. Excellent point. This is *almost* normal here in winters where we have snow and cold. We almost always have spring-like days, especially in February.Today gave me distinct February 1990 vibes, for those old enough to remember.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 as I’ve been telling everybody I know, we knew this was coming eventually. It just showed up earlier than we thought…all at once. It’s going to take some getting used to, but really not a bad way for winter to be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 gfs crapped the bed for next week, but it always does that, we'll see what CMC and euro has in store 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 This may be the first winter where I’ve had zero complaints, I couldn’t even complain about the two cold outbreaks as they were so short lived that they barely even registered. High of 62 here. More of this please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. 1912-13: 11.4” December; 2.9” January-February. a very long time ago. I wonder if we can get one of those cold and snowy winters to repeat too lol March 1914 incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 hours ago, lee59 said: 57 degrees and windy here. Newark hit 70 today, NYC 67. A normal spring day here with a gusty southerly sea breeze keeping the south shore a dozen degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I also think the unbelievably warm SSTs along and off the coast are causing a positive feedback loop, magnifying it even more Indeed, we've been discussing if that's why the December pattern didn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 hours ago, winterwx21 said: If we're gonna have a warm pattern with no hope of snow, we might as well have some blowtorch days like today. Absolutely beautiful. I love that I can go running outside this afternoon with just a t-shirt on. GFS and Euro have rain for next week. Anytime the models show a little hope for the medium range, it quickly falls apart. Just the same thing over and over again this winter. We might go the whole winter without 1 snow event. But having said that, it obviously is extremely difficult to go the whole winter without 1 snow event. Even in the warmest winters we usually get something. You'd think we'd pull off something just on freak luck at some point, so it wouldn't be surprising if we see an event at the end of the month or in March. I hope we can at least pull off 1 decent snow event. As much as I love this warm weather, I still want to see some snow. warm and sunny and dry is way better than mild and rain and humid, the last thing I need is more mold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 34 minutes ago, North and West said: Excellent point. This is *almost* normal here in winters where we have snow and cold. We almost always have spring-like days, especially in February. Today gave me distinct February 1990 vibes, for those old enough to remember. . Love that clip! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 hours ago, TWCCraig said: HRRR has 70's tomorrow before some late afternoon rain moves in wow thats a lot warmer here than today-- is that likely? with no sunshine? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: warm and sunny and dry is way better than mild and rain and humid, the last thing I need is more mold Brush fires have been breaking out all over Schuylkill County in easter PA past week or so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 Just now, Dark Star said: Brush fires have been breaking out all over Schuykill County in easter PA past week or so... I heard about it, I hope no one is burning leaves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 59 minutes ago, North and West said: Excellent point. This is *almost* normal here in winters where we have snow and cold. We almost always have spring-like days, especially in February. Today gave me distinct February 1990 vibes, for those old enough to remember. . Most definitely, I was on the 89-90 train as soon as late December didn't work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, North and West said: Excellent point. This is *almost* normal here in winters where we have snow and cold. We almost always have spring-like days, especially in February. Today gave me distinct February 1990 vibes, for those old enough to remember. . Ha 100%. I think the young ones are getting exposure to what we experienced in the early 90s! Only way this would be nicer is if it was the weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Ha 100%. I think the young ones are getting exposure to what we experienced in the early 90s! Only way this would be nicer is if it was the weekend. lol well since it lasts for an entire week, it's like a vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Before the rains come Friday it will be 20 degrees AN. The only day with even a 1 degree BN at 100% is the 18th. This winter is in the Drier and set for BURN IT. JB has been finding analogs that match for this entire winter and has had the cold returning from about Jan. 10--- in other words 5 weeks ago. Now he swears he sees his father walking home in the snow to his house and its April '56 and he is only nine months old and it is going to happen again, with or without dad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 It feels so weird out tonight. It's one thing to have a February evening in the upper 50s with low ceilings and a roaring SE wind, but tonight is perfectly clear and calm. Just madness. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Some epic meltdowns in the NE forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Currently 46 degrees here. Inland temps still in the 50s, except Central Park of course at 61. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, psv88 said: Some epic meltdowns in the NE forum It’s been a rough winter for that forum this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It’s been a rough winter for that forum this year It has been a rough winter everywhere 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: a very long time ago. I wonder if we can get one of those cold and snowy winters to repeat too lol March 1914 incoming? I suspect that we'll still see some cold and snowy winters. However, they will become less frequent in the future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Sure 70’s tomorrow, why not? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I suspect that we'll still see some cold and snowy winters. However, they will become less frequent in the future. Yeah I'm sure but the warm winters are definitely creating a feedback loop that only reinforces warm/less snowy winters. Hopefully we haven't hit some runaway cycle yet though I'm sure we will soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: It feels so weird out tonight. It's one thing to have a February evening in the upper 50s with low ceilings and a roaring SE wind, but tonight is perfectly clear and calm. Just madness. we're in the eye of a hurricane, JC; enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 The 18Z GFS fwiw has a -NAO that gets started ~2/26, becomes quite strong the next day, and stays strong through 3/3. One calculation of the NAO is based on the normalized SLP anomaly for a location in the Azores less the same for a location in Iceland. The normal Azores SLP this time of year is ~1020 mb while it is ~1005 in Iceland. So, the Azores SLP averages 15 mb higher than that of Iceland in Feb. But for the period 2/27-3/3, the 18Z GFS has the Azores at only ~1015 (~1/2 SD BN) and Iceland way up at ~1037 (~2 SD AN). So, Iceland is forecasted by this run for this 5 day period to be at a whopping 22 higher than the Azores vs the norm of 15 lower. That is a very strong -NAO, likely way up near -2.5 per this SLP based method. The point of this post is to show that some runs are showing a very strong -NAO already starting near the end of Feb. The 18z GFS is likely way overdone, but it gives an idea of the potential. I expect the 0Z GFS won't be nearly as strong. Edit for 0Z GFS: For the same period, this run looks like it has a pretty neutral NAO with averaged Azores SLP a bit higher than Iceland. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Models got awful with the favorable pattern moving forward. This winter stinks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Drowning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 15th: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 65° Cooler air will begin to arrive late tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Newark: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.5°; 15-Year: 44.3° 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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