February 2023

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Go back and review December. If that second storm was less intense, the third wave, which at times the models showed a major hit, would have clicked us. 

The warm waters did not do anything to energize or make the 3rd wave a cutter.

I am taking your response above as the red taggers Mets in the NE forum have no idea what they are talking about. 

Are you a MET? You understand more than them.?

No but understand they are talking about their region, not ours.  I also strenuously object to the word "luck"-- there is no such thing as "luck"-- everything is cause and effect.  We've already talked about how the type of block we had wasn't ideal, it wasn't what we had in 2010....and going by the climo here, it really doesn't snow much in December.  You live in a different climo zone, so results would be different for you than for what they are here.  

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

No but understand they are talking about their region, not ours.  I also strenuously object to the word "luck"-- there is no such thing as "luck"-- everything is cause and effect.

They are not just talking about their region, they were discussing the entire SE ridge setup/catalyst.

[Dark Star]

43 minutes ago, wdrag said:

EGO=greed as well. 

Perhaps...but trying to promote a culture that destroys the American pioneering spirit and self-reliance is casuing the decay of civilization...

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

They are not just talking about their region, they were discussing the entire SE ridge setup/catalyst.

And yet we had others in our own subforum talking about how the warm waters in the NW Atlantic would be a problem for us......look,it boils down to this....I'd buy it more if we missed snow by 50 miles....how can you invoke luck when there was no significant snow within 100 miles of the region in any direction?  Unless you're talking about well inland which is dramatically favored in December,,,, the stats prove that.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Perhaps...but trying to promote a culture that destroys the American pioneering spirit and self-reliance is casuing the decay of civilization...

There needs to be some sort of line drawn between this and going down the slippery slope into oligarchy

This is the American oligarchy explained in a nutshell:

https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

https://act.represent.us/sign/usa-oligarchy-research-explained
 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

They are not just talking about their region, they were discussing the entire SE ridge setup/catalyst.

also...10 out of the last 35 winters have had less than 10" of snow here.  It's more common than getting one of those really good winters we talked about the other day.

So statistically speaking, this is a more expected outcome than having a great winter.

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

And yet we had others in our own subforum talking about how the warm waters in the NW Atlantic would be a problem for us......look,it boils down to this....I'd buy it more if we missed snow by 50 miles....how can you invoke luck when there was no significant snow within 100 miles of the region in any direction?  Unless you're talking about well inland which is dramatically favored in December,,,, the stats prove that.

 

You cannot look at mileage in this instance. The third wave was essentially eliminated as a result of the strength of the 2nd low. Lesses the strength and the third wave hits us. Maybe as much as December 2000.

BROOKLYNWX - am I off here?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

also...10 out of the last 35 winters have had less than 10" of snow here.  It's more common than getting one of those really good winters we talked about the other day.

So statistically speaking, this is a more expected outcome than having a great winter.

 

11 of the last 35 winters have had over 40" of snow. that's not really true here. variance is just increasing, not the likelihood of a winter of 35-40"+

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

You cannot look at mileage in this instance. The third wave was essentially eliminated as a result of the strength of the 2nd low. Lesses the strength and the third wave hits us. Maybe as much as December 2000.

BROOKLYNWX - am I off here?

what I see is, some people who are biased for snow are saying one thing, and other people who aren't are saying something completely different.

Having experienced some truly amazing winters, I don't feel like I have a bias anymore because I expect I've already experienced the best in winter weather that I'll experience in my lifetime.

But this outcome we had this winter is much more likely than  the great winters we mentioned the other day.

And this winter will be remembered much more for the complete blowtorch in all of January and February than it will be for one missed chance in December....this was always going to be a bad winter, and it's really not even close.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

You cannot look at mileage in this instance. The third wave was essentially eliminated as a result of the strength of the 2nd low. Lesses the strength and the third wave hits us. Maybe as much as December 2000.

BROOKLYNWX - am I off here?

nah, I would generally agree. if the pre-Christmas wave was weaker or the third wave was like 12-24 hours quicker, it would have been a different story, but alas

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

11 of the last 35 winters have had over 40" of snow. that's not really true here. variance is just increasing, not the likelihood of a winter of 35-40"+

Yes, based on the numbers Chris posted, I'm using JFK numbers, which if I remember correctly are 10 out of 35 with under 10" and 12 out of 35 with over 30"....for us, it's more about either under 10 or over 30, it's close between those two.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

nah, I would generally agree. if the pre-Christmas wave was weaker or the third wave was like 12-24 hours quicker, it would have been a different story, but alas

But would this winter still be remembered as a horrible blowtorch because of January and February?

So basically, this winter would be a bad winter regardless of what happened there?

I honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February.

That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start.

it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"the concept is called superdeterminism.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You cannot look at mileage in this instance. The third wave was essentially eliminated as a result of the strength of the 2nd low. Lesses the strength and the third wave hits us. Maybe as much as December 2000.

BROOKLYNWX - am I off here?

I should have added this to my other post, but this is why I'm against luck:

 Honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February.

That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start.

it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"...the concept is called superdeterminism.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I should have added this to my other post, but this is why I'm against luck:

 Honestly don't remember any winters where we had a snowy December and then a complete blowtorch like this for January and February.

That's what makes me feel like the solution was "baked in" from the start.

it also comes down to the idea (which I strongly believe) that the future solution is baked in from the start-- it goes beyond meteorology, Einstein actually championed this idea that the future is pre-determined....using this, you don't need "luck"...the concept is called superdeterminism.

personally, I would wait until March is done with. it looks like we could have a nice stretch, which is what I would remember this winter for, IMO

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, I would wait until March is done with. it looks like we could have a nice stretch, which is what I would remember this winter for, IMO

Yes, I think with the shortening wavelengths we could see something decent-- that's what usually seems to happen in patterns and winters like this.  What fails in January and February can succeed in March.

That's the main reason that March was the snowiest month in the 50s.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I was just thinking of you!  What say you-- will the January-February couplet this year be the warmest such couplet on record?

 

Yes. That is very likely. The record is 40.6°, which was set in 1990.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That is very likely. The record is 40.6°, which was set in 1990.

Hey Don, to Liberty's post, how many times have we had little to no December snowfall followed by January and February shut outs? Off the top of my head 89/90 comes to mind. Maybe 91/92 however we ended up with 2 March snowstorms. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don, to Liberty's post, how many times have we had little to no December snowfall followed by January and February shut outs? Off the top of my head 89/90 comes to mind. Maybe 91/92 however we ended up with 2 March snowstorms. 

I mean I was thinking of your luck scenario actually-- let's say it had snowed in December (ballpark figure...6-10 which is probably where the predictions were based on blocking.)... how often does a blowtorch January-February couplet happen after that?

I settled on 6-10 because I distinctly remember Don saying back in December that while the blocking pattern was good, there were other factors that made him believe that while December would be decent (and 6 inches of snow would be decent), he didn't expect double digit snowfall in NYC.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So that abnormally warm area of water in the NW Atlantic had nothing to do with it?

I'm going by the record of December on the south shore of Long Island and it's pretty ugly-- unless you have a historic pattern like December 2009, 2010...you really don't get much snow here in December.

If that pattern had occurred later in the winter, as in Mid to late January or February I'd buy it-- but December isn't a winter weather month here anymore.

 

This is definitely a HUGE example of read more

post less. This December’s pattern was similar to the years you mentioned…

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s crazy how much worse this DJF period would look if Dec didn’t feature the cold shots and stretch of slightly BN temps that it did. It’s keeping the DJF average from looking more extreme. 

Would be a lot more digestible this year if we just had a super front and back loaded winter with snow only in Dec and March. We know one of those didn’t happen, but how about the other? If the SSW enacts a surface response and we see an -NAO, I gotta believe NYC gets a pity advisory / warning event out of it. 

My expectations are thoroughly welded to the floor, but hey, you never know, right? At least the unfolding shakeup leaves the door open to at least see a flake before the spring summer torching begins. 

Also, was just up in Danbury CT for my birthday with my wifey. We had a great little trip, but it felt so wrong being in parks at almost 1k ft elevation with not a single snow pile anywhere to be seen:

This was at around 1850 feet near Mckenley Hollow in the Catskills last Thursday.  It's pretty grim:

 

https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/329446463_907437943791145_8500101841668863162_n.jpg?stp=cp0_dst-jpg_e15_fr_q65&_nc_cat=110&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=9e2e56&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ohc=uZNCzWgfyxEAX8jyxLr&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&oh=00_AfBX3cVrDbeLIUVcdVkCJahuFZOXEOLkjMRlP0ocqoQZkw&oe=63F1A6EF

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/CoqGFoep-1I/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

 

[lee59]

Looks like a return to winter like temperatures toward the end of next week.

[Volcanic Winter]

10 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like a return to winter like temperatures toward the end of next week.

Lows still look solidly AN, though highs are a definite improvement. What’s been happening to the nightly low temperatures has been the scariest aspect of our 2016+ climate regime, IMO. Especially noticeable in the city with the full brunt of the UHI, but everywhere lately apparently can’t even approach average nightly lows.

This year we needed unmitigated arctic cold to get below average at night, and haven’t been anywhere close since. 

[donsutherland1]

46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don, to Liberty's post, how many times have we had little to no December snowfall followed by January and February shut outs? Off the top of my head 89/90 comes to mind. Maybe 91/92 however we ended up with 2 March snowstorms. 

Winters with less than 1" snowfall in December and < 3" total in January-February:

1918-1919, 1931-1932, 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 1997-1998

2001-02 had a trace of snow in December and 3.5" in January-February (nothing afterward).

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Perhaps...but trying to promote a culture that destroys the American pioneering spirit and self-reliance is casuing the decay of civilization...

We're not going to have to worry about civilization if the planet keeps burning up. A bug flew up my nose as I was exiting my car just now......it's the middle of Feb....

[vegan_edible]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We're not going to have to worry about civilization if the planet keeps burning up. A bug flew up my nose as I was exiting my car just now......it's the middle of Feb....

i just saw a bee on my balcony...

[snowman19]

Winters with less than 1" snowfall in December and 1918-1919, 1931-1932, 1972-1973, 1991-1992, 1997-1998
2001-02 had a trace of snow in December and 3.5" in January-February (nothing afterward).

If we are going to see a turnaround in March the blocking has to show up come the 1st week, and I mean legit blocking in the NAO and AO domains because the PAC is still going to suck then. Then we start racing against the clock. If the blocking starts getting delayed beyond the 1st week of March, I think we’re done. I consider 3/15 the cutoff for anything other than a freak event at our latitude, there’s too much working against us cold and snow wise at that point and beyond

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we are going to see a turnaround in March the blocking has to show up come the 1st week, and I mean legit blocking in the NAO and AO domains because the PAC is still going to suck then. Then we start racing against the clock. If the blocking starts getting delayed beyond the 1st week of March, I think we’re done. I consider 3/15 the cutoff for anything other than a freak event at our latitude, there’s too much working against us cold and snow wise at that point and beyond

You just described 97/98. Just a freak post 3/15 event.

[Winter Wizard]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If we are going to see a turnaround in March the blocking has to show up come the 1st week, and I mean legit blocking in the NAO and AO domains because the PAC is still going to suck then. Then we start racing against the clock. If the blocking starts getting delayed beyond the 1st week of March, I think we’re done. I consider 3/15 the cutoff for anything other than a freak event at our latitude, there’s too much working against us cold and snow wise at that point and beyond

March 2010 is a great example of how a -NAO block in March far from guarantees a cold pattern developing. If you look at the other cold/snowy March cases recently that had NAO/AO blocking, it was because there was help in the Pacific domain. Currently I'm hard pressed to see the Pacific working in the East Coast's favor for the foreseeable future. 

[snowman19]

March 2010 is a great example of how a -NAO block in March far from guarantees a cold pattern developing. If you look at the other cold/snowy March cases recently that had NAO/AO blocking, it was because there was help in the Pacific domain. Currently I'm hard pressed to see the Pacific working in the East Coast's favor for the foreseeable future. 

Oh, the crappy PAC isn’t quitting anytime soon. It’s still total garbage going into early March and I’m sure beyond that point

[WX-PA]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Oh, the crappy PAC isn’t quitting anytime soon. It’s still total garbage going into early March and I’m sure beyond that point

Great, weather like today!  Bring on Spring!!..rooting for a warm March and April