February 2023

[hudsonvalley21]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No reason to buy into cold and snow as it hasn’t shown up this winter. We have been looking at the same medium range maps all season. You have said this all winter. Don’t buy into this 

You never know. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  Something has to break. We watch it for the next couple of days for trends. 

[matt8204]

5 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

You never know. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.  Something has to break. We watch it for the next couple of days for trends. 

Nothing to lose.  If it fizzles, we're back in the same snowless spot lol.  At least it's something to look at and makes things somewhat interesting.

[JustinRP37]

This is the most surreal winter I have ever lived through. It is actually pretty scary if you pay attention to the ecological signs. We may see record early leaf out this year. Not to mention the continued spread of invasives north. 

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No reason to buy into cold and snow as it hasn’t shown up this winter. We have been looking at the same medium range maps all season. You have said this all winter. Don’t buy into this 

You're making a good point that can't be ignored. The models' cold bias is important to keep in mind. However, there's one key difference ahead that we haven't seen so far this winter: we now have the unpredictability of the sometimes favorable aftermath of a major SSW to consider. And this is looking to be a solid major with the latest GFS prediction of a -15 m/s 10 mb 60N mean wind now being predicted. While not near the record strongest, which is well down into the -20s, a -15 is no slouch and probably is stronger than the average major SSW by that measure.

[snowman19]

No reason to buy into cold and snow as it hasn’t shown up this winter. We have been looking at the same medium range maps all season. You have said this all winter. Don’t buy into this 

Different night, same ending. Seen this movie before and we know how it ends. That gradient is going to end up in New England next week. Massive full-latitude trough digging for gold in Baja and a SE ridge that you know will trend stronger as we get closer. Same old overpowering RNA that’s been there since November, same old pattern. And no, I don’t buy the 50/50 vortex being as strong as depicted either without a true west based -NAO block locking it in, seen that nonsense from the models before this year as well

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

We may see record early leaf out this year. Not to mention the continued spread of invasives north. 

Spring is 3-4 weeks early over much of the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic. 
 

 

[snowman19]

You're making a good point that can't be ignored. The models' cold bias is important to keep in mind. However, there's one key difference ahead that we haven't seen so far this winter: we now have the unpredictability of the sometimes favorable aftermath of a major SSW to consider. And this is looking to be a solid major with the latest GFS prediction of a -15 m/s 10 mb 60N mean wind now being predicted. While not near the record strongest, which is well down into the -20s, a -15 is no slouch and probably is stronger than the average major SSW by that measure.

My questions are, how do we know it definitely downwells and couples with the troposphere? If it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? What does it actually do to the SPV? How long does it take to have tropospheric effects if any? This event is nothing like 2018. If we are to take the study Dr. Amy Butler shared, given when this SSWE happens, then we factor in the lag time, we are looking at mid-late March for the tropospheric -NAM (-AO) and -NAO to take effect, if that’s the case, it may be all for naught

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Spring is 3-4 weeks early over much of the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic. 
 

 

Yeah they were mentioning that those with hotel reservations for the cherry blossoms in DC might want to bump their visit up. Truly insane. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

17 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

This is the most surreal winter I have ever lived through. It is actually pretty scary if you pay attention to the ecological signs. We may see record early leaf out this year. Not to mention the continued spread of invasives north. 

I saw a wasp flying around today, lol. 

[binbisso]

This winter has sucked and persistence has won out however this upcoming period may be different. This is the first time I've noticed the se ridge get knocked down this close. 

New run

Old run

[brooklynwx99]

persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong. the SSW might just be the catalyst for change by early March, and there are indications that we can be tracking a threat or two before the -NAO really gets going, mainly around the 22-24th

[snowman19]

This winter has sucked and persistence has won out however this upcoming period may be different. This is the first time I've noticed the se ridge get knocked down this close. 
New run

Old run

I’ve seen it before. The models have been doing it since November. They show a knocked down SE ridge/WAR in the mid-long range only for it to verify much stronger as we move forward in time

[binbisso]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’ve seen it before. The models have been doing it since November. They show a knocked down SE ridge/WAR in the mid-long range only for it to verify much stronger as we move forward in time

Yea I hear you but this time it's across all guidance and gaining traction as we get closer. It's not fantasy land. Now whether it snows is a different story 

[White Gorilla]

How do shorter wavelengths as we approach March potentially alter this extremely stubborn pattern? 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

How do shorter wavelengths as we approach March potentially alter this extremely stubborn pattern? 

-PNAs in March aren't nearly as bad as they are in December, especially when a -NAO is involved

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will unseasonably warm. Readings will likely reach the lower and even middle 60s across the Mid-Atlantic region.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a rare (for this winter) snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 22-24 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +15.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.259 today.

On February 12 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.342 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.6° (4.7° above normal).

 

[snowman19]

If we take the EPS at face value and assume it’s even correct, a true -NAO doesn’t start developing until 3/1. So next week, besides the very strong -PNA and the SE ridge that we know is going to verify stronger than what it is being shown now, what’s to stop the 50/50 low and the associated confluence from simply sliding east out into the Atlantic? Where’s the -NAO block? Fact is there is no -NAO block next week to trap a 50/50 low, even if it’s as strong as what’s being depicted, which is most likely wrong. I think we can all imagine where this is headed

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

As of today Las Vegas has more snow than DCA on the season. #WeSuckAtWinter

Ahahahahahaha! When Vegas gets a heavier snow shower than Winchester has seen all season. 

 

 

What a year 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yeah they were mentioning that those with hotel reservations for the cherry blossoms in DC might want to bump their visit up. Truly insane. 

White Plains is currently in 3rd place for warmest winter with  Poughkeepsie in 4th. Danbury is in 1st place for warmest with a period of record starting there in 98-99. Only the 4th winter when Caribou averaged over 20°. BTV is 3rd warmest at nearly 30°. You can see how many top ranking warmest winters there have been since the 15-16 super El Niño. So very close tracking between the interior Northeast and coastal plain. 
 

Equivalent benchmarks for warmest across the region

NYC….40°+

HPN…..36°+

POU…..34°+

DXR…...34°+

CAR……19°+

BTV……27°+

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	37.2	0
-	2001-2002	37.2	0
2	2011-2012	37.1	1
3	2022-2023	36.8	15
4	1997-1998	36.6	25
5	2016-2017	36.1	1
6	2019-2020	35.7	3
7	1998-1999	35.1	25
-	1990-1991	35.1	8
8	1996-1997	34.8	32
9	1952-1953	34.4	0
10	2012-2013	33.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	36.8	0
2	1931-1932	35.2	7
3	2011-2012	34.8	1
4	2022-2023	34.3	15
-	2001-2002	34.3	0
5	1932-1933	34.1	8
6	1936-1937	33.8	2
7	2019-2020	33.0	0
-	1997-1998	33.0	2
8	1996-1997	32.8	2
9	2016-2017	32.6	0
10	1952-1953	32.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022-2023	36.3	15
2	2015-2016	35.1	0
3	2001-2002	34.7	0
4	2011-2012	34.6	1
5	2021-2022	33.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	21.6	0
2	2009-2010	21.0	0
3	2020-2021	20.8	0
4	2022-2023	20.7	15
5	2001-2002	19.3	0
6	2019-2020	17.9	0
7	1959-1960	17.7	0
8	2011-2012	17.6	0
-	2010-2011	17.6	0
-	1957-1958	17.6	0
9	1982-1983	17.5	0
10	2005-2006	17.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015-2016	30.2	0
2	2016-2017	29.5	0
3	2022-2023	29.4	15
4	2001-2002	28.8	0
5	2011-2012	27.8	0
6	1932-1933	27.6	0
-	1905-1906	27.6	1
7	1936-1937	26.3	0
8	2019-2020	26.1	0
9	1931-1932	26.0	0
10	1948-1949	25.9	0

[EastonSN+]

Vegas more snow than DC. Lol.

[coastalplainsnowman]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What a year 

Not to mention Huntsville Alabama ahead of NYC, 0.6 to 0.4.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Vegas more snow than DC. Lol.

-PNA and south based blocking on steroids this winter.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

My questions are, how do we know it definitely downwells and couples with the troposphere? If it does, which side of the pole does it benefit? What does it actually do to the SPV? How long does it take to have tropospheric effects if any? This event is nothing like 2018. If we are to take the study Dr. Amy Butler shared, given when this SSWE happens, then we factor in the lag time, we are looking at mid-late March for the tropospheric -NAM (-AO) and -NAO to take effect, if that’s the case, it may be all for naught

Great questions:

1. We don't know if it will downwell. However, last week there was a S-G dipole max above 40 mb, which per Dr. Simon Lee, is a positive indicator for it to go down into the troposphere. And the models are suggesting a -NAO in two weeks.

2. Nobody knows the specifics on which areas of the world would be affected the most if it downwells. But if the -NAO that models are hinting at starting in two weeks actually occurs, that would obviously bode well for chances for cold in the E US.

3. The timing varies with each SSW but effects including an -NAO/-AO often start within 1.5-2 weeks of the SSW date, which would be either very late Feb or very early March. So, imho, IF there is to be a colder pattern from this, it would very likely start earlier than mid to late March.

[forkyfork]

starlink satellite flyover at 631

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

This is the most surreal winter I have ever lived through. It is actually pretty scary if you pay attention to the ecological signs. We may see record early leaf out this year. Not to mention the continued spread of invasives north. 

with all the toxic chemical spills going on, humanity is doing a lot of things wrong on this planet.

Instead of looking for intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, we need to wonder whether it even exists on earth.

 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

starlink satellite flyover at 631

boring

[tdp146]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

boring

Eventually these things will clutter the night sky. Try and take a timelapse astrophotography shot and you’ll have streaks of starlinks or the half dozen other companies that are sending stuff up there  

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

boring

Just wondering, how easy was it to spot?  Visible to the naked eye?

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I saw a wasp flying around today, lol. 

I was testing a new fly zapper outside today. No problem finding flies. This is unbelievable. Like that famous Twilight Zone episode.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Spring is 3-4 weeks early over much of the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic. 
 

 

I've been watching this for a while. Some significant ecological damage with the growing season this far along in mid Feb. 

With the warmth ramping up this will only worsen