February 2023

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

This weather really makes me want to get out there and start the garden with cool season vegetables like lettuce and broccoli. Obviously have to wait until late March for that though. It'll probably be colder then than what we're having now. It's gonna be 65 degrees on wednesday. 

It will be cold and wet as soon as you plant peppers and tomatoes and eggplants. This is usually in late May when it should be pretty warm.

[Heisy]

 I was just looking back in this forum's discussion when the Feb of 2018 major SSW was starting, which was 3-4 days earlier in Feb than the current one. Mid to late Feb, itself, was similar to this month looking mild with a solid -PNA projected. However, what was different then was that a new strong -NAO/-AO was already appearing late in the model runs, which was attributed to that month's SSW. So, there was already a suggestion based on the models that the overall pattern would likely cool down significantly by the end of Feb or early March vs the higher level of uncertainty today.

Starting to see some signal for NAO at end of ensembles, but nothing conclusive yet. Just hoping for one event before end of year (Philly resident)


.

[winterwx21]

59 degrees here. Beautiful day. 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I was just looking back in this forum's discussion when the Feb of 2018 major SSW was starting, which was 3-4 days earlier in Feb than the current one. Mid to late Feb, itself, was similar to this month looking mild with a solid -PNA projected. However, what was different then was that a new strong -NAO/-AO was already appearing late in the model runs, which was attributed to that month's SSW. So, there was already a suggestion based on the models that the overall pattern would likely cool down significantly by the end of Feb or early March vs the higher level of uncertainty today.

I feel like it’s so late in the game that, at most, this’ll just mean that the weather is more spring-like now than it will be after the equinox (i.e., follow up our craptastic winter with a(nother) dreary, damp spring). 

[donsutherland1]

This is probably the coldest period shown on the latest ECMWF weeklies:

Last week:

[psv88]

Beautiful April day

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is probably the coldest period shown on the latest ECMWF weeklies:

Last week:

 And as you probably already realize, this new run also has a much weaker -AO/-NAO 2/27+ vs the prior run. Not what I wanted to see although not surprising based on the fact that the prior run's 360 (for 2/24) already had a developing -AO/-NAO vs the 0Z of today still having what appears to me to still be a +AO/+NAO or at best neutral as of its end on 2/28.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 And as you probably already realize, this new run also has a much weaker -AO/-NAO 2/27+ vs the prior run. Not what I wanted to see although not surprising based on the fact that the prior run's 360 (for 2/24) already had a developing -AO/-NAO vs the 0Z of today still having what appears to me to still be a +AO/+NAO or at best neutral as of its end on 2/28.

Yes. It is disappointing.

[MJO812]

Weeklies is still good for March 

[snowman19]

Yes. It is disappointing.

If we are still spinning our wheels come 3/1, it’ll be time to pronounce this one officially dead

[snowman19]

Starting to see some signal for NAO at end of ensembles, but nothing conclusive yet. Just hoping for one event before end of year (Philly resident)


.

As of 2/28 it still doesn’t have a -NAO. At that point the clock will really be ticking

[vegan_edible]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we are still spinning our wheels come 3/1, it’ll be time to pronounce this one officially dead

its like we were timestamped in november, then some hit the fast forward button to april 10th

[JustinRP37]

At this point we can still get a good storm, but it is starting to look like even if the cards align it would be a snow and right back to 50s and 60s. This just wasn’t the winter for any of us. Best part though is seeing the home heating oil futures bank on a frigid winter with no supply. Faster we switch to heat pumps (geothermal or air source) the better for budgeting. So I guess that was the silver lining this winter. But for us snow lovers and skiers this ranks firmly at the bottom. Sure the man made snow has been decent, but it just isn’t the same looking at bare ground all around on a strip of white.

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, today featured more of the springlike warmth that has defined much of the winter. Temperatures generally ranged from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

At JFK Airport, the temperature reached 56°, which broke the old record of 54°, which was set in 1949. Islip saw a high temperature of 56°, which tied the record set in 2008.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler but still warmer than normal. Temperatures will rebound strongly on Wednesday.

Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. However, no severe shots of cold appear likely into late February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +13.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.045 today.

On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.068 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.075 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.7° (4.8° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I came up with it. It’s the standard deviation departure of the mean winter temperature from the historic average (period of record) - the standard deviation departure of snowfall to date from the historic average.

You use similar methodology to the AWSSI from the MRCC. 

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You use similar methodology to the AWSSI from the MRCC. 

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

 

Thank you for sharing this link. I will have a look at it.

[kat5hurricane]

9 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Seven of the 10 worse snow seasons through 2/12 have occurred within the last 25 years.

A lot of the better ones have too. It's been a very feast or famine snow climate in the last 30 years.

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thank you for sharing this link. I will have a look at it.

Your method along with the AWSSI both create a number based on snowfall and temperature. Both scales are a little behind 2001-2002. So one of the least severe winters on record. 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 56F here today.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is probably the coldest period shown on the latest ECMWF weeklies:

 

Last week:

 

Maybe we get a brief gradient pattern that gets NYC over 1” on the season if the SE Ridge doesn’t correct stronger again in later runs. Sometimes a -PNA can be a little better for us later in the season than the early season. But a slightly weaker than forecast Scandinavian Block or east based -NAO will allow the SE Ridge to flex too much.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe we get a brief gradient pattern that gets NYC over 1” on the season if the SE Ridge doesn’t correct stronger again in later runs. Sometimes a -PNA can be a little better for us later in the season than the early season. But a slightly weaker than forecast Scandinavian Block or east based -NAO will allow the SE Ridge to flex too much.

 

Yes, that’s true. With shortening wave lengths, a PNA- is no longer the problem it was earlier in the winter. Hopefully, the NAO can help suppress the SE ridge.

[Daniel Boone]

As we all know, Models will go nuts for a while in response to the SSW. So, I wouldn't take alot of stock in what they're depicting now. There'll probably be about every solution under the sun. 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It is disappointing.

Don and others,

 I have my skepticism about the statistical significance of the study referenced in this Dr. Amy Butler tweet, but am posting it anyway to see what others think. Even Amy Butler, herself, says this:

"A word of caution: this analysis is based on the relatively few events in the historical record, so sampling is likely an issue"

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Don and others,

 I have my skepticism about the statistical significance of this Amy Butler tweet, but am posting it anyway to see what others think. Even Amy Butler, herself, says this:

"A word of caution: this analysis is based on the relatively few events in the historical record, so sampling is likely an issue"

 

 

I also am cautious given the sample size involved. However, even if one sees a big drop in the AO/NAO within 45 days, we’ll be in mid- to late-March. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I also am cautious given the sample size involved. However, even if one sees a big drop in the AO/NAO within 45 days, we’ll be in mid- to late-March. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

Thanks. Also, isn't NAM more precisely the AO rather than the NAO? The diagram refers to NAM, but she refers to NAO.

[Rtd208]

[snowman19]

I also am cautious given the sample size involved. However, even if one sees a big drop in the AO/NAO within 45 days, we’ll be in mid- to late-March. It will be interesting to see what actually happens.

Yes, caution is definitely warranted and given the fact that we are into mid-February now, even if this study is correct, we would be looking at mid-March to start seeing the effects and at that point it’s basically over

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Also, isn't NAM more precisely the AO rather than the NAO? The diagram refers to NAM, but she refers to NAO.

Yes, the NAM is the AO.

[EasternLI]

Just starting today and going ahead, the ssw will now be included in the initial conditions on modeling. So it will be interesting to see what changes, if anything, as that becomes the case now. There's evidence available that suggests this makes a noticeable difference with predictability of how they play out. I'm not saying to expect anything crazy, just that this is a point where potential changes could occur on modeling. Or not lol.

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 13th: