Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm 5 miles north of ac at my parents house and it's been raining all morning. 0 snow That's for tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm 5 miles north of ac at my parents house and it's been raining all morning. 0 snow I was definitely kidding, but it’s that kind of winter where an inch feels like a jackpot . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating. Yes I was looking at that too and it would be worth it to get another 2002-03 next year. Hopefully we get a very hot summer like 2002 was too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I think the further we go through February, the more we torch. Maybe even substantially at some point. If the MJO stuff I'm seeing is any indication. So I buy what the weeklies are selling there. I've sort of moved on to mostly watching enso for next year. Which I am honestly seeing a pretty solid case to be made there. Using the current obs of the Pacific, for a developing modoki el nino. So that's definitely going to be interesting to see how that goes from where we are. It's also a little interesting to me that a year like 2001-02 led to one in 02-03. So one can't help but wonder if an abysmal winter, similar to this one, is part of that process. As the conditions present this year are, surprisingly to me tbh, found during the development of those types of events in the previous winter. Fascinating. MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February. I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen. I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active. You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February. I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen. I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active. You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now. The MJO is at its highest amplitude this winter. How long that will last remains to be seen. If it persists, it might play more of a role than it has so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes I was looking at that too and it would be worth it to get another 2002-03 next year. Hopefully we get a very hot summer like 2002 was too. Again with the heat, I just don't get it LOL. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: I was definitely kidding, but it’s that kind of winter where an inch feels like a jackpot . You're certainly not wrong. Barely even seen flurries this winter. I live in monmouth county. Terrible winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: MJO has underperformed all winter to a degree so I don't know...the weeklies have also suggested it may be cooler late February. I still am telling everyone hoping for the shutout that its probably not gonna happen. I am far from sold even top 5 snowless occurs because the storm track has been active. You add in tendency in recent years for juicy systems we could get 10 inches in one shot easily now. I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina. Another reason I am sort of leaning away from the top 5 snowless is the tendency in many years where a La Nina is collapsing and we are headed into an El Nino there have been significant late spring snow events...not always at the coast but it was nearly an automatic occurrence back in the 80s and 90s...I think one year maybe 1986 we had a May snow event inland 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 The story of our winter so far... From the NWS: The arctic cold front slips through Friday morning. There are some differences in the timing, but all bring in the coldest air Friday night with 85h temps dropping to around -25C and in some cases approaching -30C. With no downstream block over the north Atlantic, this will be a fleeting airmass, in and out as fast as it came in. In addition, with strong NW winds behind the cold front, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will produce wind chills at the very least at advisory criteria with a small chance of reaching warning levels inland. Lows Friday night inland are forecast to drop several degrees below zero with the single digits at the coast. For highs Saturday, most locations will be in the teens. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Another reason I am sort of leaning away from the top 5 snowless is the tendency in many years where a La Nina is collapsing and we are headed into an El Nino there have been significant late spring snow events...not always at the coast but it was nearly an automatic occurrence back in the 80s and 90s...I think one year maybe 1986 we had a May snow event inland Gotcha, and that's fair enough. Will be interesting to see what happens. I still have questions about March anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I still have questions about March anyway. “March, will you suck too?” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: “March, will you suck too?” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Again with the heat, I just don't get it LOL. some of our best winters come in with summer heat first, I love that contrast! 1966 into 1967, 1977 into 1978, 1993 into 1994, 1995 into 1996, 2002 into 2003 and 2010 into 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: some of our best winters come in with summer heat first, I love that contrast! 1966 into 1967, 1977 into 1978, 1993 into 1994, 1995 into 1996, 2002 into 2003 and 2010 into 2011. If that's true, I'll endure the heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If that's true, I'll endure the heat. it probably has to do with ENSO switches from one season to another (which brings the 2001-02 into 2002-03 transition into play). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: I think February is warm, when all is said and done. We'll have to see of course. I'm not really sure about the tail end of the month into March tbh. I don't have a great feeling about it though given this la nina. I agree that very late February is too far out to have a good idea, but I think we can say with confidence that the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February are gonna be an all-out blowtorch. Also amazing how fast of a turnaround we're gonna have with the arctic shot. It's gonna go from high temps in the 20s on saturday to near 50 on sunday. You don't see that very often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I agree that very late February is too far out to have a good idea, but I think we can say with confidence that the 2nd and 3rd weeks of February are gonna be an all-out blowtorch. Also amazing how fast of a turnaround we're gonna have with the arctic shot. It's gonna go from high temps in the 20s on saturday to near 50 on sunday. You don't see that very often. Yeah the one time I remember something like that happening was with a southeaster in late January 1994. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: “March, will you suck too?” Weeklies suggest there's some potential. We could also follow the 11/12 route too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Well lets just say if the HRRR is as correct tomorrow as it was today the snowless streak is going to fall just short of the record...the GFS FWIW has more snow tomorrow than the NAM does lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Well lets just say if the HRRR is as correct tomorrow as it was today the snowless streak is going to fall just short of the record...the GFS FWIW has more snow tomorrow than the NAM does lol that "record" is HIGHLY suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I think too much is put into these records. If CPK goes snowless this year people will read wayyyy too much into it (MJO/CC/la Nina/fast flow/extended jet) when in reality, it's one fluke different than 97/98. Or any other year where we had one event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 That's some serious cold in the NE. NWS Albany talking about wind chills of -25 to -50 Friday night/Saturday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 NYC likely breaks their snow less streak tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I think too much is put into these records. If CPK goes snowless this year people will read wayyyy too much into it (MJO/CC/la Nina/fast flow/extended jet) when in reality, it's one fluke different than 97/98. Or any other year where we had one event. I think you're wishing and hoping because you love snow so much you forget how bad climate change is becoming and how much worse it will get and in very short order. March 2012, then December 2015 and now January 2022, we'll see how soon the next one happens, I'm betting on 5 years or less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That's some serious cold in the NE. NWS Albany talking about wind chills of -25 to -50 Friday night/Saturday morning. Why such a difference between Boston and NYC? If Boston is -12 NYC will be at least -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Whoever's rooting for 0f with double digit wind chills this weekend..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Why such a difference between Boston and NYC? If Boston is -12 NYC will be at least -2. Probably closer to the cold air source there and colder 850 temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Whoever's rooting for 0f with double digit wind chills this weekend..... I root for both 0F and 100F lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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