February 2023

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Are u sure you have the correct winter? I remember only one mixed event in 13/14, which was 12 inches followed by over an inch of rain followed by 1.5 inches. All the other storms were in the 20s and snow 

The February storm where we had like 8 inches of snow and then heavy rain around VD.

No 20 inch snowstorm which we need one to be an HECS, which makes winters like 95-96 and 02-03 superior to me.

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 11th:

a moment of silence, February 11-12 is peak snowfall season for us, some of our best HECS have occurred on these two days.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We definitely should for DJF or met winter. March is still a question mark. 

Next 2 weeks are a blowtorch though with multiple 60+ days

Good to see it will be sunny most of the time.

I've started planting.

 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We definitely should for DJF or met winter. March is still a question mark. 

Next 2 weeks are a blowtorch though with multiple 60+ days

In the end we could not beat out the triple dip la Nina. 

At least we know the next time it happens we are breaking records!

[EastonSN+]

This is what's needed.

 

[EastonSN+]

Not this

[EastonSN+]

On 2/9/2023 at 1:36 PM, bluewave said:

That area experienced its peak in the 2000s while NYC was during the 2010s.

I just performed a deep dive for the Danbury area. My conclusion is that Danbury requires 3 scenarios to snow (bullseye)

1.) Moderate Blocking. 00 through 11 had far more blocking episodes than 12 through now. They are too far NW for storms such as last January where the bulk is a long the coast and east (or 14/15). Also, they cannot have strong blocking or the December 09 scenario plays out where the moisture does not get far enough north. 

2.) Coastal hugger. They DID score on a couple occasions, however the hugger, until a couple years ago, was mostly extinct. They did well during the massive upstate blizzard a couple of years ago, however the fact that we get so few of these now hurts that area. 

3.) Overrunning events. They have elevation and are away from the coast, so they do fairly well with these. However, few foot plus accums happen during these events.

I remember growing up in Norwalk in the 80s and 90s and whenever we went to the Danbury Mall there was always snow on the ground, and back home it was always barren. When coastal CT does well, generally Danbury does not. 12 through this year generally the coast and east have done well. This has led to the Danbury snow shortfall.

I truly believe we are heading into a 70 through 99 snow drought again (started 19/20). If we continue to see huggers return, Danbury should make up ground while us coasties fall back to the 70 through 99 average snowfall.

Now, I do not think CC will have much affect on the snow difference, for lost snow due to higher temps will be offset by larger snow amounts when it does snow. 

If I were to wager, Danbury's average will start to climb again while Long island/coastal CT sees the drought of 70 through 99.

[EastonSN+]

Danbury needs this

[EastonSN+]

Danbury does not need this

[EastonSN+]

Nobody was happy here especially not Danbury

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 11th:

Feeling confident we get to #1.  Don, Saw your sensitivity analysis for February temperatures.  Took a notable jump up over the last 1-2 days.  The winter that keeps on giving.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

@bluewave

nyc had 57

ewr 60

we absolutely had a chance in 13/14 

13-14 could have done it a Newark with more snow in December and March. But 10-11 came closer. So just goes to show how tough it was been to challenge 95-96. During the snowfall peak from 2010-2015, stations to our north and south beat 95-96. So that may have been our last shot since winters have warmed so much since then. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
1995-1996	0.0	3.0	12.8	31.6	18.4	11.9	0.7	78.4
1960-1961	T	0.0	24.0	22.2	23.3	4.0	T	73.5
2010-2011	0.0	T	24.5	37.4	4.1	2.2	T	68.2
1977-1978	0.0	1.5	0.2	27.4	25.3	10.5	T	64.9
1993-1994	0.0	T	3.9	18.5	33.4	8.7	0.0	64.5
2013-2014	0.0	T	9.4	20.8	30.3	0.2	0.4	61.1

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1999)
LGA: 63 (2018)
NYC: 62 (2018)
 

 

Lows: 

LGA:4 (1979)
NYC: -3 (1914)
EWR: -1 (1979)

 

Historical:

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784. 

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. 

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across Alaska. Morning lows of 29 degrees at Anchorage and 31 degrees at Fairbanks were actually warmer than those in northern Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of an arctic cold front pushed temperatures into the 70s as far north as Iowa and Nebraska. Twenty-one cities in the central U.S., seven in Iowa, reported record high temperatures for the date. Lincoln NE reported a record high of 73 degrees, and the afternoon high of 59 degrees at Minneapolis MN smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Springfield IL reported a record forty-eight consecutive days with above normal temperatures. (The National Weather Summary)

2006 - An intense snow squall off of Lake Michigan cuts visibility to zero along a section of US 31. The resulting whiteout causes 96 cars to pile up. 25 were injured.

[SACRUS]

Nice (real time loop) view of the southern storm

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just performed a deep dive for the Danbury area. My conclusion is that Danbury requires 3 scenarios to snow (bullseye)

1.) Moderate Blocking. 00 through 11 had far more blocking episodes than 12 through now. They are too far NW for storms such as last January where the bulk is a long the coast and east (or 14/15). Also, they cannot have strong blocking or the December 09 scenario plays out where the moisture does not get far enough north. 

2.) Coastal hugger. They DID score on a couple occasions, however the hugger, until a couple years ago, was mostly extinct. They did well during the massive upstate blizzard a couple of years ago, however the fact that we get so few of these now hurts that area. 

3.) Overrunning events. They have elevation and are away from the coast, so they do fairly well with these. However, few foot plus accums happen during these events.

I remember growing up in Norwalk in the 80s and 90s and whenever we went to the Danbury Mall there was always snow on the ground, and back home it was always barren. When coastal CT does well, generally Danbury does not. 12 through this year generally the coast and east have done well. This has led to the Danbury snow shortfall.

I truly believe we are heading into a 70 through 99 snow drought again (started 19/20). If we continue to see huggers return, Danbury should make up ground while us coasties fall back to the 70 through 99 average snowfall.

Now, I do not think CC will have much affect on the snow difference, for lost snow due to higher temps will be offset by larger snow amounts when it does snow. 

If I were to wager, Danbury's average will start to climb again while Long island/coastal CT sees the drought of 70 through 99.

I'm 14 miles SW of KDXR and other than a handful of times my totals are better (by a fair bit) than over there. The station site is slightly sheltered from anything southerly oriented so the snow blows "over" it, there are stations a mile away on the other side of the valley that show 20-30% higher precip numbers. It does show slightly lower temps too because of its location on the north side of the hills. All that said yes, we need more continental systems as opposed to coastal to have great winters here. 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is what's needed.

 

We've had a hard time getting into the 8-1-2 combo in recent years

[MANDA]

39 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Nice (real time loop) view of the southern storm

 

What a waste of atmospheric energy. 

[vegan_edible]

HAHAHAHAHAHA yeah if this one happens im gonna laugh my ass off 

[EasternLI]

Toss that MJO idea to the moon. Not happening. It's not going to be effective....

[snowman19]

Toss that MJO idea to the moon. Not happening. It's not going to be effective....

Had to drop in to agree with you on that. The Niña system is still in full effect. Also, I’m not so sure the SSWE is going to be all that effective either. This event is nothing like 2018, it’s a displacement event, adding to the uncertainty and there’s destructive interference from the +QBO and -AAM, serving to delay and convolute everything. If there’s even any tropospheric response it may not happen until the 2nd week of March. This tweet chain does a great job of explaining what’s going on

[EastonSN+]

41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We've had a hard time getting into the 8-1-2 combo in recent years

Yeah, we are heading back to the 70 through 99 setup.

We will get there again some years but consistently may have to wait a long time before it returns.

 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, we are heading back to the 70 through 99 setup.

We will get there again some years but consistently may have to wait a long time before it returns.

 

70 through 99 had much colder winters than we've been getting 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Now, I do not think CC will have much affect on the snow difference, for lost snow due to higher temps will be offset by larger snow amounts when it does snow. 

If I were to wager, Danbury's average will start to climb again while Long island/coastal CT sees the drought of 70 through 99.

Seems like the lower snowfall averages over the Mid-Atlantic have come north in recent years with the warmer winters. Those areas had a decrease after the 2010 snowfall peak. Warmer winters eventually lead to lead snow. 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

70 through 99 had much colder winters than we've been getting 

Yeah 70 through 89 were definitely cold dry warm wet save 77/78. 90s were a furnace outside of 92/93, 93/94 and 95/96. 

I think we have to wait a while before we get another 1960s, 2000s 2010s setup. Maybe 10 to 25 years!

I know, add some degrees for GW however while we will lose a number of snow events, when it does snow totals will be much higher (i.e. blizzard of 96 NYC has Phillys temps and instead of 22 NYC could get the 32 Philly observed. Obviously I am dramatically over simplifying a complex atmospheric change, however I am just not in the mindset of GW has ended winters as we know it. Not yet.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Seems like the lower snowfall averages over the Mid-Atlantic have come north in recent years with the warmer winters. Those areas had a decrease after the 2010 snowfall peak. Warmer winters eventually lead to lead snow. 

 

 

Yes this is exactly where my head is at. The southern portions will continue to decrease YOY. Looks like next up for us is neutral. 

I think Don had a post a while back saying Philly and NYK snowfall has yet to be affected like DC and Baltimore. May take 10 to 20 years. 

I think as it progresses north it will slow, however I can see 20 to 30 years from now we are Philly as they say. Philly becomes the current DC. Etc.

I do take comfort that my sister in Raleigh continues to get snow events every few years. When that stops it will mean anomalous setups are failing to the south, which would be the next progression to watch.

[EastonSN+]

One thing I do like about the GFS is it seems to capture the heat island effect. Check out DC below. This is the positive snow depth change.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yes this is exactly where my head is at. The southern portions will continue to decrease YOY. Looks like next up for us is neutral. 

I think Don had a post a while back saying Philly and NYK snowfall has yet to be affected like DC and Baltimore. May take 10 to 20 years. 

I think as it progresses north it will slow, however I can see 20 to 30 years from now we are Philly as they say. Philly becomes the current DC. Etc.

I do take comfort that my sister in Raleigh continues to get snow events every few years. When that stops it will mean anomalous setups are failing to the south, which would be the next progression to watch.

Yeah, warm winters with hostile Pacific patterns like this one will always have less snow. We would need a favorable Pacific and blocking to get big snowstorms in a warm winter. This is what happened in 15-16 and 16-17. But NYC hasn’t been able to get back to 50” with all the warmer winters since 15-16. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, warm winters with hostile Pacific patterns like this one will always have less snow. We would need a favorable Pacific and blocking to get big snowstorms in a warm winter. This is what happened in 15-16 and 16-17. But NYC hasn’t been able to get back to 50” with all the warmer winters since 15-16. 

Yeah after 17/18 (and of course the above average snowfall of 20/21) we have been in a rough stretch.

I firmly believe the PAC will change at some point. Until then we will need to get above average snowfall the way of 20/21.

 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah after 17/18 (and of course the above average snowfall of 20/21) we have been in a rough stretch.

I firmly believe the PAC will change at some point. Until then we will need to get above average snowfall the way of 20/21.

 

Yeah, we would need a Pacific shift to get back to above average snowfall. Warm winters can work with the right storm track and blocking. So we could get 16-17, 17-18 or 20-21 type winters when the Pacific improves. But NYC would still need a colder winter to get back to 50” like 13-14 and 14-15. 

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Remember when CC made a permanent ridge out west because of the “pacific warm blob”? 
 

Guess that fad is done. Now it’s the SE ridge’s turn to be the new fad. Get ready for a new one next year if we get El Niño and SE ridge goes poof. 

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it’s certainly warm, but this pattern would suck in 1620 as well. 
 

You can debate if the marginal events would produce, but a low tracking over Buffalo has been rain since the dawn of time. 

Just another point of view from the NE forum. Like to look at all sides.