February 2023

[donsutherland1]

A storm passing well to the south of the region could bring some rain and wind to the coastal plain tomorrow into Monday. The heaviest precipitation will fall south and east of New York City, along the Jersey shore and parts of Long Island. In contrast, higher elevations in eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina, West Virginia, and western Virginia could pick up an appreciable snowfall.

In the wake of the storm, much milder air will return to the region.

The potential exists for temperatures to run generally above to much above normal past mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures into the third week of February.

Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. No severe shots of cold appear likely into late February.

Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States.

During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels.

In terms of ENSO, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly went positive for the week centered around February 1st. That is the first positive reading since a +0.2 anomaly during the week centered around October 6, 2021.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +21.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.145 today.

On February 9 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.924 (RMM). The February 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.963 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.1° (4.2° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You don’t think 13/14 had a shot if march wasn’t so cold and dry? I feel like that was our last November to April winter with cold/snow throughout 

 

kphl had 68 in 13/14 

 

 

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember having 58 on the year in 13/14 with the GFS showing a 16 incher in 5 days followed by and 8 incher a week later and another storm queed up. 

Then it all went south (literally).

It 100% could have beaten 95/96.

@bluewave

nyc had 57

ewr 60

we absolutely had a chance in 13/14 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

@bluewave

nyc had 57

ewr 60

we absolutely had a chance in 13/14 

I look at that as an inland winter-- no other way for PHL to get 68" while NYC got 57"...I'm sure Long Island had less than that

02-03 was superior to that and had an  HECS to boot.

 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I remember having 58 on the year in 13/14 with the GFS showing a 16 incher in 5 days followed by and 8 incher a week later and another storm queed up. 

Then it all went south (literally).

It 100% could have beaten 95/96.

Not without an HECS.  That was a nice B+ winter

 

[Allsnow]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I look at that as an inland winter-- no other way for PHL to get 68" while NYC got 57"...I'm sure Long Island had less than that

02-03 was superior to that and had an  HECS to boot.

 

All I’m saying is that 13/14 had a chance to beat 95/96 if it didn’t shut off in March. It was our last true DJF winter imo 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Allsnow said:

All I’m saying is that 13/14 had a chance to beat 95/96 if it didn’t shut off in March. It was our last true DJF winter imo 

Yeah if it had that HECS in March it would have done it and been the superior winter.

I have three things I go by for an A winter:

1. At least three months with 10"+ inches of snow (or at least two months of 20"+ snow.)

2. At least 50" of snowfall for the season

3. At least one HECS (20"+) snowstorm.

 

[donsutherland1]

Warming winters in New York City:

Winter 2022-2023 will be the 8th consecutive winter that is warmer than the moving 30-year average

 

 

 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Warming winters in New York City:

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah if it had that HECS in March it would have done it and been the superior winter.

I have three things I go by for an A winter:

1. At least three months with 10"+ inches of snow.

2. At least 50" of snowfall for the season

3. At least one HECS (20"+) snowstorm.

 

See for me, 13–14 was closer to an A winter because of the entrenched cold.  I’ll take slightly less snowfall if it sticks around for longer periods of time.  The snowstorm with single-digit temps in January 2014 was a huge plus too.

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Warming winters in New York City:

Winter 2022-2023 will be the 8th consecutive winter that is warmer than the moving 30-year average

 

 

 

All - I don't mean this directly to Don, I'm just referencing his chart - though of course Don your thoughts would be greatly appreciated too.  Playing devil's advocate here - Just going by this chart, it looks like NYC's Winter Mean Temperature per the moving average has increased by about one and one-third degrees in the past 65 years.  By my rough math that trend would turn NYC into Baltimore in roughly 200 years.  That the rate of increase over the preceding 57 years was sharper than the most recent 65, if anything, evidence points toward a flattening, but I digress.

Given how the stars already have to align for big snows along the coast - i.e. the likelihood of such an occurrence is historically so low, that our chances of seeing another quite snowy winter in our not to distant future are only negligibly diminished compared to, say, the 1960s.  It's like if I buy 34 lottery tickets instead of 36.  My chances of winning the lottery are undoubtedly diminished, but how likely is it to affect the outcome for me?  I'm probably not going to win a big prize regardless.  And if I do win a big prize, I was lucky, regardless.  I'm taking the time to make this point because it seems like there's sentiment around here to the effect of 'we've entered a whole new era, how can we trust the long term models anymore, etc.'  Maybe that is all true.  But the chart above suggests to me not yet.

I've got no meteorology background, which I know is obvious.  Just curious as to folks take on this and if you think it's off base.  Thanks.

 

[Roger Smith]

About 40% of the increase is probably due to the increase in the urban heat island which probably grew fastest between 1911 and 1950. That does not mean it should feel colder, it is what it is, but if the inference is that warming is at a certain rate for purely greenhouse gas driven causes, then that part of the increase is likely the other 60%. An urban-adjusted curve would show the relative strength of earlier peaks, and would reveal more of the temporary cooling of the 1957-81 period. However it's a moot point perhaps since a large percentage of the population of the northeast U.S. lives in a location subject to a significant urban heat island. 

[Rtd208]

Not much hope from Larry Cosgrove in his weekly newsletter. Still a chance at something wintry the first week of March but other then that winter sounds pretty much over which isn't a shock. He can still see how March will be a  warmer month and doesnt seem overly enthused about the SSWE and probably shouldn't be.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

All - I don't mean this directly to Don, I'm just referencing his chart - though of course Don your thoughts would be greatly appreciated too.  Playing devil's advocate here - Just going by this chart, it looks like NYC's Winter Mean Temperature per the moving average has increased by about one and one-third degrees in the past 65 years.  By my rough math that trend would turn NYC into Baltimore in roughly 200 years.  That the rate of increase over the preceding 57 years was sharper than the most recent 65, if anything, evidence points toward a flattening, but I digress.

Given how the stars already have to align for big snows along the coast - i.e. the likelihood of such an occurrence is historically so low, that our chances of seeing another quite snowy winter in our not to distant future are only negligibly diminished compared to, say, the 1960s.  It's like if I buy 34 lottery tickets instead of 36.  My chances of winning the lottery are undoubtedly diminished, but how likely is it to affect the outcome for me?  I'm probably not going to win a big prize regardless.  And if I do win a big prize, I was lucky, regardless.  I'm taking the time to make this point because it seems like there's sentiment around here to the effect of 'we've entered a whole new era, how can we trust the long term models anymore, etc.'  Maybe that is all true.  But the chart above suggests to me not yet.

I've got no meteorology background, which I know is obvious.  Just curious as to folks take on this and if you think it's off base.  Thanks.

 

That’s long-term. The rate of warming has accelerated in recent decades. At the current rate, NYC’s mean winter temperature should reach 37 during the 2030s. At that level, NYC should still have snowy winters, but they would be fewer in number; low snowfall winters would increase in number. The mean winter snowfall would fall to near 20”. This assumes that the experience with that temperature is similar to that elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic where it has been reached.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Interesting to see how temps rise with incoming cloud cover,the most interesting part is that nocturnal cooling was excellent,which in turn will keep us on the lower end of highs today esp with heavy cloud cover. My forecast high for the day sez 47f..not happening.!

 

[lee59]

Current temperatures White plains 27, farmingdale 30, Poughkeepsie 22, Newark 32, and in the heat island Central Park 40°

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 29 here. 

[WIN]

19 here. Surprised it got that low.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

So what happens first. Precip arrives before cold air leaves??. Or this baby makes its own cold air pool up the coast and cold air doesnt budge much?..of note here is this is still a coastal,so the easterly fetch is not as intrusive with an nne wind as opposed to a sse wind. Dont underestimate the cold air still around as well with lower then forecast lows and minimal diurnal heating with increasing clouds.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Eduardo said:

See for me, 13–14 was closer to an A winter because of the entrenched cold.  I’ll take slightly less snowfall if it sticks around for longer periods of time.  The snowstorm with single-digit temps in January 2014 was a huge plus too.

I mean it was close, I'd say B+ maybe A-, but closer to B+ for three reasons (1- lots of mixed events here, 2- no HECS, 3- March disappointment.)  For Philly and interior NJ A.

I'm flexible on the three month 10+ snowfall thing, it's either that or two months of 20+ inches.

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Not much hope from Larry Cosgrove in his weekly newsletter. Still a chance at something wintry the first week of March but other then that winter sounds pretty much over which isn't a shock. He can still see how March will be a  warmer month and doesnt seem overly enthused about the SSWE and probably shouldn't be.

Expect historic snows then--up till now he was calling for cold/snow every week

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

About 40% of the increase is probably due to the increase in the urban heat island which probably grew fastest between 1911 and 1950. That does not mean it should feel colder, it is what it is, but if the inference is that warming is at a certain rate for purely greenhouse gas driven causes, then that part of the increase is likely the other 60%. An urban-adjusted curve would show the relative strength of earlier peaks, and would reveal more of the temporary cooling of the 1957-81 period. However it's a moot point perhaps since a large percentage of the population of the northeast U.S. lives in a location subject to a significant urban heat island. 

I wonder if this will change if we create more green spaces which we are starting to do.

The concrete needs to be trashed.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Current temperatures White plains 27, farmingdale 30, Poughkeepsie 22, Newark 32, and in the heat island Central Park 40°

what was JFK's low?

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      46degs.(39/54) or +10.

Month to date is      37.3[+3.0].           Should be       41.0[+5.9] by the 20th.

Reached 49 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:    46-49, wind sw. to s. to e. to ne. to n by tomorrow AM, increasing clouds, drizzle overnight---0.15", 38 tomorrow AM.

Ridge Down for the Count?

38*(59%RH) here at 6am.    39* at 8am.      41* at 8:30am.      43* at 10am.      45* at 10:30am.       47* at 11am.    Reached  48* at 11:30am.        44* at 9pm.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Went from all rain to this for my area. A mix??

[donsutherland1]

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 11th:

[LoboLeader1]

Overnight of low of 25, currently 31 here as of 8:30 this AM.

[EastonSN+]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I mean it was close, I'd say B+ maybe A-, but closer to B+ for three reasons (1- lots of mixed events here, 2- no HECS, 3- March disappointment.)  For Philly and interior NJ A.

I'm flexible on the three month 10+ snowfall thing, it's either that or two months of 20+ inches.

 

Are u sure you have the correct winter? I remember only one mixed event in 13/14, which was 12 inches followed by over an inch of rain followed by 1.5 inches. All the other storms were in the 20s and snow 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 11th:

I am starting to think that we finally break the futility record this year.

While ECMWF gets the MJO in 8, GEFS completely kills the wave in 7.

I feel that the ECMWF scenario is the only hope.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become mostly cloudy after some sunshine. Some light rain is possible later in the day and tonight, especially south and east of New York City. High temperatures will reach the middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 47°

Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Friday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 41.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.4°

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am starting to think that we finally break the futility record this year.

While ECMWF gets the MJO in 8, GEFS completely kills the wave in 7.

I feel that the ECMWF scenario is the only hope.

We definitely should for DJF or met winter. March is still a question mark. 

Next 2 weeks are a blowtorch though with multiple 60+ days