February 2023

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It depends if March continues the mild theme. If it does then its gonna be an early & brutal allergy season 

My allergies were almost nonexistent last spring....as long as it doesn't rain much I don't have allergies.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

This winter has sucked every way imaginable. It is not even been a winter. I'll pass 24/7/365 on experiencing another La Nina anytime soon.

The die for this winter was cast last fall. 

Today was wonderful if it doesn't snow I'll take this weather all year long

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Loving this weather

absolutely ideal weather

if it doesn't snow this is what we want all year round

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

now list the bad ones. Go ahead…

enso doesn't impact our weather as much as some people think

No matter the enso this winter would have been horrible

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Please correct me if I am mistaken but I believe the following is best enso state to worst:

Weak El Nino

Moderate El Nino

Weak la nina

Neutral

Moderate la Nina

Strong El Nino

Strong la nina

moderate el nino is better here than weak el nino but again enso doesn't influence our weather as much as some people think

and moderate la nina is better than neutral anyway lol

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

is that going to eliminate the blizzard of 2016's existence 

and the blizzard of 1983

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, lee59 said:

Got up to 58 here, now down to 57

was in the mid 60s here

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yes, this is usually my rule of thumb with that. It's funny too, I thought this winter would suck back in August. Then the blocking became a possibility and I reconsidered everything lol. Because blocking is what you look for in la Nina if it's going to be any good. That was an interesting development. It failed, sometimes they do. Is what it is. 

 

Swap neutral and moderate la nina with each other and I agree. Neutral sucks, too strong in either direction does too. Just a very basic guideline. Many other variables to consider. 

moderate la nina is better than neutral and moderate el nino is better than weak el nino

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December 2015 acted like a La Nina because the MJO I think went raging through 3=4=5....rarely do you ever see a SER in a strong Nino December and we did that year.  Places like Atlanta and Charlotte had their warmest Decembers on record...that never should happen in an El Nino unless you have a raging zonal flow and no cold air around, not a SER

it's really more accurate to say that enso doesn't influence our weather as much as many people think it does, it's all about blocking

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I missed that winter living in TX but weren’t there several other decent snowstorms especially for the coast in Feb and March? LI easily passed 40” that winter. Whether it’s one storm that does most or several, to me that’s a success. 

Yes February was good here we had another heavy snow event around the superbowl when a crane fell in NYC

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Congrats DC is usually good for us too. Other than rare occasions like 2/6/10 which I think was the only occasion NYC recorded a trace and Philly anything like their 24”. There have definitely been lesser NYC screw occasions like in March 2014 that were good events in S NJ and the DC area but the big dogs usually find their way north enough to get to NYC. There are also many Congrats Boston events that are good for us too but shaft anyone west of the Delaware if not worse. That’s why NYC is so tough to forecast for. We’re on the fest vs bust line on any big event. There hasn’t been one huge event I can remember where it’s been “given” that NYC would get slammed more than 72 hours out. The huge Nino events and Blizzard of 96 were given to nail DC, 2/8/13, 1/25/15 were given to nail Boston. Had last Jan’s big storm been just a little better consolidated like Boxing Day 2010 (which gave zero to DC) vs. the mess of convective lows it was, the best snow might’ve been over the NYC area. NYC in all was on the line until eventually we had to fall on one side of the knife. 

on the south shore our only 20"+ snowstorms since I can remember were these:

Feb 1983

Jan 1996

Feb 2003

Jan 2016

 

so a weak la nina (after a mod el nino) and three high end moderate to strong el ninos.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Feb 1983, Feb 2003, 75 miles away from 2 feet on 2/6/10 and several others that winter that did hit, etc in addition to Jan 2016. I’ll take a Nino any day. If 97-98 wasn’t so overwhelmingly warm it would’ve been a very solid winter since there were so many good tracks. Not endless cutters like so many Nina years. 

The real wild card is the W Pacific in any Nino now though since we had the W Pacific warm pool in 18-19 and much of the winter behaved like a Nina as a result. 

it really is all about the blocking more than enso for our winters

 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/9/2023 at 1:33 PM, Gravity Wave said:

I think it was more of an HECS for the southern Mid Atlantic, the Jersey shore and Cape Cod than NYC. DC had 20 inches and Cape May had 34!

I bet the south shore of long island had an HECS too, then again none of us were around to see it lol.

It was snowing in Florida!  Bay effect snow in Tampa Bay, Gulf effect snow elsewhere on the Gulf coast....

 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/9/2023 at 5:21 PM, Brian5671 said:

March 2018 alot of us cashed in...but you're right snow was tough to accumulate during daytime hrs and urban areas really struggled but that was a heck of a 4-5 weeks.

and early April, that was my favorite storm in that pattern

 

[LibertyBell]

On 2/9/2023 at 5:09 PM, Rjay said:

This ended up being one of the 2 back to back 12" storms for nyc metro, right?

Yeah.... I actually thought the first one was better than the second one but they were both really good and both were a surprise.

the first one was predicted to be 4-5 inches and then a changeover to rain.

instead we had an immense outburst of thundersnow right off the bat at 10 AM (I still remember it-- the first time I've ever seen such intense lightning in a snowstorm and true white out conditions) that lasted for about 4 hours where we accumulated 2 inches an hour and peaked out around 4 inches an hour and ended up with about 8 inches of snow before it ended as drizzle late in the afternoon.

We went from bare ground (which was rare that winter) to plowable in less than 30 minutes-- I'll never forget that!

 

That was supposed to be it but a second storm snuck up on us, came a little bit further north with each model run and we ended up getting 11 inches with the second storm before it changed to sleet here on the south shore (a disappointment but we somehow still ended up with more than NYC, while EWR jackpotted with around 17 inches, and they had 14 inches from the first storm, so that was a total of 31 inches of snowcover from the two storms, while for us it was more like 8+11=19 inches of snowcover with a layer of sleet on top.)  After that we had a freezing rain event over the weekend and then another big thaw....but then winter came roaring back in March.

 

[donsutherland1]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I read that Islip reached 63 today?

If it's not going to snow this is exactly the kind of weather I want, strong downsloping westerly winds and dry and sunny conditions.

It can be like this all year long.

 

The high was 62.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The high was 62.

and only 60 at JFK? you'd think they'd be warmer with a westerly wind.

 

[mattinpa]

7 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Beats 33 & rain 

I see what you mean, but I now just wish it would feel like winter sometimes.

[Rjay]

@LibertyBell...that was 19

[Dan76]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah.... I actually thought the first one was better than the second one but they were both really good and both were a surprise.

the first one was predicted to be 4-5 inches and then a changeover to rain.

instead we had an immense outburst of thundersnow right off the bat at 10 AM (I still remember it-- the first time I've ever seen such intense lightning in a snowstorm and true white out conditions) that lasted for about 4 hours where we accumulated 2 inches an hour and peaked out around 4 inches an hour and ended up with about 8 inches of snow before it ended as drizzle late in the afternoon.

We went from bare ground (which was rare that winter) to plowable in less than 30 minutes-- I'll never forget that!

 

That was supposed to be it but a second storm snuck up on us, came a little bit further north with each model run and we ended up getting 11 inches with the second storm before it changed to sleet here on the south shore (a disappointment but we somehow still ended up with more than NYC, while EWR jackpotted with around 17 inches, and they had 14 inches from the first storm, so that was a total of 31 inches of snowcover from the two storms, while for us it was more like 8+11=19 inches of snowcover with a layer of sleet on top.)  After that we had a freezing rain event over the weekend and then another big thaw....but then winter came roaring back in March.

 

Good lord can you pleeeese use the multi quote option thanks

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and only 60 at JFK? you'd think they'd be warmer with a westerly wind.

 

Islip was warmer than all of the New York City sites and Newark.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Liberty bell. You are wild. I love it 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Islip was warmer than all of the New York City sites and Newark.

My at home weather station hit 61. Im not far from islip. 
 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

@LibertyBell...that was 19

Don saved us from a 20 stack. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Don saved us from a 20 stack. 

Lol. Might be the beer but I almost laughed to tears 

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

moderate el nino is better here than weak el nino but again enso doesn't influence our weather as much as some people think

and moderate la nina is better than neutral anyway lol

 

What's so bad about a strong nino?

[USCG RS]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember when we had the 4 straight years of 40"+ from 2002-03 through 2005-06 we said that would never happen again lol

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I read that Islip reached 63 today?

If it's not going to snow this is exactly the kind of weather I want, strong downsloping westerly winds and dry and sunny conditions.

It can be like this all year long.

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Just use some binoculars and you're all set.

10x50 or 12x60 are preferable

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wouldn't call it a blowtorch, I'd call it very pleasant and ideal weather for spring.

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

My allergies were almost nonexistent last spring....as long as it doesn't rain much I don't have allergies.

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Today was wonderful if it doesn't snow I'll take this weather all year long

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

absolutely ideal weather

if it doesn't snow this is what we want all year round

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

enso doesn't impact our weather as much as some people think

No matter the enso this winter would have been horrible

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

moderate el nino is better here than weak el nino but again enso doesn't influence our weather as much as some people think

and moderate la nina is better than neutral anyway lol

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and the blizzard of 1983

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

was in the mid 60s here

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

moderate la nina is better than neutral and moderate el nino is better than weak el nino

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's really more accurate to say that enso doesn't influence our weather as much as many people think it does, it's all about blocking

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes February was good here we had another heavy snow event around the superbowl when a crane fell in NYC

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

on the south shore our only 20"+ snowstorms since I can remember were these:

Feb 1983

Jan 1996

Feb 2003

Jan 2016

 

so a weak la nina (after a mod el nino) and three high end moderate to strong el ninos.

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it really is all about the blocking more than enso for our winters

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I bet the south shore of long island had an HECS too, then again none of us were around to see it lol.

It was snowing in Florida!  Bay effect snow in Tampa Bay, Gulf effect snow elsewhere on the Gulf coast....

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and early April, that was my favorite storm in that pattern

 

 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah.... I actually thought the first one was better than the second one but they were both really good and both were a surprise.

the first one was predicted to be 4-5 inches and then a changeover to rain.

instead we had an immense outburst of thundersnow right off the bat at 10 AM (I still remember it-- the first time I've ever seen such intense lightning in a snowstorm and true white out conditions) that lasted for about 4 hours where we accumulated 2 inches an hour and peaked out around 4 inches an hour and ended up with about 8 inches of snow before it ended as drizzle late in the afternoon.

We went from bare ground (which was rare that winter) to plowable in less than 30 minutes-- I'll never forget that!

 

That was supposed to be it but a second storm snuck up on us, came a little bit further north with each model run and we ended up getting 11 inches with the second storm before it changed to sleet here on the south shore (a disappointment but we somehow still ended up with more than NYC, while EWR jackpotted with around 17 inches, and they had 14 inches from the first storm, so that was a total of 31 inches of snowcover from the two storms, while for us it was more like 8+11=19 inches of snowcover with a layer of sleet on top.)  After that we had a freezing rain event over the weekend and then another big thaw....but then winter came roaring back in March.

 

 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and only 60 at JFK? you'd think they'd be warmer with a westerly wind.

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not that fast though, I type with 2 fingers

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

What's so bad about a strong nino?

it's not bad at all, if you like huge storms that define the entire winter

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Don saved us from a 20 stack. 

I wasn't going to do 20, that's an unlucky number for me.