February 2023

[LoboLeader1]

60F here as of 11AM.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 63 (1990)
NYC: 61 (2001, 1990 / 2023)
LGA: 60 (2001)

 

Lows:

LGA: 4 (1979)
NYC:  -6 (1899)
EWR: -4 (1934)

 

Historical:

1899 - The temperature at Monterey plunged to 29 degrees below zero, establishing record for the state of Virginia. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1959: St. Louis, Missouri, was hit by a massive F4 tornado that killed 21 and injured 345. Over 2000 buildings were damaged or destroyed, including the St. Louis Arena. Click HERE for more information from The St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

 

1973 - A major snowstorm struck the southeastern U.S. It produced as much as 18 inches in Georgia, and up to two feet of snow in South Carolina. (David Ludlum)

1978 - As much as eight inches of rain drenched southern California resulting in widespread flooding and mudslides. The heavy rainfall produced a wall of water which ripped through the mountain resort community of Hidden Springs drowning at least thirteen persons. The storm was one of the most destructive of record causing fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1982 - Bismarck, ND, experienced its 45th consecutive day of subzero temperature readings which tied the previous record long string of subzero daily lows ending on the same date in 1937. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in southeastern Maine. Grand Falls and Woodland received 15 inches, mainly during the early morning hours, while most of the rest of the state did not even see a flake of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Bitter cold arctic air gripped the north central U.S. International Falls MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 35 degrees below zero. Record warm readings were reported in southern California, with highs of 78 at San Francisco and 88 at Los Angeles. San Juan Capistrano CA was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - For the first time all month winter relaxed its grip on the nation. The temperature at Brownsville TX warmed above 60 degrees for the first time in six days, ending their second longest such cold spell of record. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front continued to produce severe weather across the southeastern U.S. through the morning hours and into the late afternoon. There were a total of twenty-nine tornadoes in twenty-nine hours, and 245 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Pre-dawn thunderstorms produced high winds which injured at least seventy persons in Alabama and Georgia, and caused more than twelve million dollars property damage. A tornado at Austell GA prior to daybreak injured two persons and caused two million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A second major snowstorm, dubbed Snoverkill and Snowmaggedon 2.0, further buries the Nation's Capital with 10.8 inches of new snow. Schools, businesses and even parts of the Federal government are shut down by blizzard conditions. The city now has a deeper snowpack, 28 inches, than the 20 inches in Anchorage, AK, or 27 inches in Marquette, MI.

2011 - The coldest day in Oklahoma history sees the temperature plunge to -31°F at Nowata, OK. A US National Weather Service station at Bartlesville recorded a reading of -28°F. Both locations break the previous low temperature mark of -27°F set in 1905 and tied in 1930. The Weather Doctor

 

2017: Denver saw their all-time warmest temperature in February with a reading of 79 degrees.

[EasternLI]

25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Neutral ENSO winters which occur near the solar max historically are very bad for some reason...there has been many theories as to why...most likely its that the AO/NAO simply average strongly positive in those years but it may also be that without the La Nina/El Nino you lose some ability to get pronounced ridging or troughing in some locations so the pattern has a tendency to be more zonal and the bad AO/NAO amplify that issue 

Weaker walker circulation is just not good, maybe. We want some amplitude, but too much isn't good either. It's interesting to think about.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December 2015 acted like a La Nina because the MJO I think went raging through 3=4=5....rarely do you ever see a SER in a strong Nino December and we did that year.  Places like Atlanta and Charlotte had their warmest Decembers on record...that never should happen in an El Nino unless you have a raging zonal flow and no cold air around, not a SER

Yeah, another anomalous event caused by the record WPAC warm pool.

https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced.

"It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.

This research highlights that climatologists should consider the SST anomaly distribution of super El Niño events for future MJO activity studies.

More information: Xuben Lei et al, Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Niño in Comparison with Other Super El Niño Events, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2021).  DOI: 10.1007/s00376-020-0261-x

 

 

[TWCCraig]

60 and sunny

Awesome day

[Rjay]

Loving this weather

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looking at the 10 day forecast and I can't believe it's mid Feb. It reads more like early April. 

Record early green ups coming. Next week will be warmer than this one

The models are showing a very brief minor cooldown after next week's blowtorch, but then another major warmup to start the week of February 20th. It appears that we're down to the last several days of February and March for our last hope for a winter storm. Very sad.

I know there are some encouraging signs for March, so hopefully that will pan out and we'll get a late season event. But that's way too far out to be confident, and nothing that has looked good in the long range this winter has worked out for us. It would be horrible to go the entire winter without 1 snowstorm, so hopefully that will finally change. 

[rclab]

32 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Loving this weather

Good afternoon Rjay. I have no doubt, considering what a below normal February would have done to your avatar. Stay well, as always …..

[MJO812]

Disgusting weather

Too warm for this time of the year

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Disgusting weather

Too warm for this time of the year

Yea agree, pretty sad actually. Just hope those invasive lantern fly moths don't start emerging too early as they are awful.

[vegan_edible]

i'm not gonna complain too much about todays weather, im working from home, got the windows open, ice cold kombucha to sip on. it could be worse. still got my fingers crossed for a late feb/early march event but as i said yesterday lets hope we can line up some good stuff for next year, I would kill for a december nor'easter

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Disgusting weather

Too warm for this time of the year

It's great for outdoor activities though. It's going to feel great running outside in this weather this afternoon. If we're not gonna have snow, we might as well have some very warm days like today. That said, I do hope the pattern changes so we can finally get a snowstorm late in the season. 

[matt8204]

60 and sunny next Friday?!  Maybe I'll use a personal day and make it an extra-long President's Day weekend.  

[matt8204]

55 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Loving this weather

Same.  If we can't have snow, let's have some nice days like this.  Definitely puts me in a better mood.  Feels like spring.

[lee59]

60 degrees. At least the projected price of $8 a gallon for heating oil did not happen.

[George001]

4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

far too many people downplayed LaNina heading into the fall and winter. 

Ninas aren’t bad in New England, this winter sucked but statistically moderate nino and strong nino are the 2 worst enso states for SNE snowfall. 

[JTA66]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Disgusting weather

Too warm for this time of the year

Beats 33 & rain 

[LoboLeader1]

Going to be a bad allergy season this upcoming spring, not looking forward to it.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Going to be a bad allergy season this upcoming spring, not looking forward to it.

It depends if March continues the mild theme. If it does then its gonna be an early & brutal allergy season 

[weatherpruf]

25 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Going to be a bad allergy season this upcoming spring, not looking forward to it.

I cannot remember when it was not a bad allergy season. Ever.

[Snowlover11]

trees will bud, flowers will grow and bang! we will get snow, atleast thats what has happened the past few winters.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Ninas aren’t bad in New England, this winter sucked but statistically moderate nino and strong nino are the 2 worst enso states for SNE snowfall. 

This winter has sucked every way imaginable. It is not even been a winter. I'll pass 24/7/365 on experiencing another La Nina anytime soon.

The die for this winter was cast last fall. 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, matt8204 said:

60 and sunny next Friday?!  Maybe I'll use a personal day and make it an extra-long President's Day weekend.  

I wouldn't be surprised if we see mid to upper 60s late next week. Looking like quite a blowtorch. 

[Roger Smith]

You may have heard about the "green comet" 2022 E3 (ZTF), tonight is the easiest find as it passes very close to Mars in the night sky. It's actually located between us and Mars and heading slowly away from the inner solar system after making its closest approach to the Sun on Jan 12, and its closest approach to earth on Feb 1st. 

If you have reasonably dark and clear skies available tonight, locate Mars and the comet will be in the same binocular field, especially if you place Mars in the bottom right quadrant. Mars is easy to find. You just need to locate Orion, the most familiar constellation, high in the south around 8 p.m., then look up higher to the right, where you will see two red star-like objects, the lower one is Aldebaran which is always in that position, and the higher one (somewhat brighter) is Mars. Then the comet will be passing just to the left of Mars as you see it, towards 0300h EST, but at the leisurely speed of the comet, it will be fairly close to Mars all night. I am hoping to get a view here although we have a lot of high overcast and a moderately dimmed sun at this point (it is 2:20 p.m. here). 

You wouldn't likely see the comet "naked eye" as it is sixth magnitude, fainter than such barely visible objects as the individual stars of the Pleiades (also in view above Mars) or various background stars that I might be able to spot here in the dark skies of the semi-wilderness. People reading this in more rural areas of the country have a better chance of spotting the comet. 

We passed Mars on December 8th at the full moon (and it was occulted at that time), so as Mars moves about half our speed, it has covered the portion of its orbit that we covered by January 9th. Our line of sight to Mars is back to around where it was in the sky on November 25th, that's due to parallax. If we were able to observe from a point back around our orbital position of January 9th, Mars would appear further to the left in the sky, over around Castor and Pollux over the other (left) shoulder of Orion. Mars will soon start to move prograde again as we reach the point of greatest angular difference and this optical illusion of retrograde motion ends.

So for the comet, just locate Mars, get it into the lower right portion of your field of vision, and you should find the comet in the upper left, then center view in on it. Mars may then be at the edge of your field of vision or slightly outside it. 

If you don't get a chance tonight, there will be a similar close approach in the sky to Aldebaran about four days (nights) later (night of 14th-15th) with the closest approach about 8 p.m. 14th. It will appear slightly closer to Aldebaran than to Mars. Aldebaran is between us and the Hyades star cluster which presents well in binoculars. The comet may therefore appear to be a member of that, so its tail will be the distinguishing feature. 

Both tonight and the 14th-15th are good for avoiding problems of moonlight, the Moon rises about midnight tonight and quite late in the early morning hours on the 15th. So if you time it well, the Moon won't be interfering with your view at all. 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine and a fresh breeze, much of the region experienced near record and record warmth. Daily records included:

Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 60°, 1959 and 2001)
Baltimore: 66° (tied record set in 1959 and tied in 1960)
Boston: 60° (tied record set in 1990)
Bridgeport: 62° (old record: 54°, 2001)
Hartford: 62° (old record: 55°, 1909)
Islip: 62° (old record: 56°, 2022)
New Haven: 62° (old record: 53°, 2022)
New York City-JFK: 60° (old record: 56°, 2001 and 2022)
New York City-LGA: 60°, 2001 (tied record set in 2001)
New York City-NYC: 61° (tied record set in 1990 and tied in 2001)
Portland: 52° (tied record set in 1955)
Providence: 64° (old record: 58°, 1909)
Raleigh: 75° (tied record set in 1899 and tied in 1938)
Scranton: 57° (tied record set in 1909 and tied in 1955)
Sterling, VA: 65° (old record: 63°, 1990 and 2001)
Westhampton: 62° (old record: 56°, 2001)
White Plains: 59° (old record: 55°, 2001)
Wilmington, NC: 80° (old record: 77°, 1932 and 1965)
Worcester: 56° (old record: 55°, 1909)

A storm passing well to the south of the region could bring some rain and wind to the coastal plain Sunday into Monday. The heaviest precipitation will fall south and east of New York City, along the Jersey shore and parts of Long Island. Afterward, much milder air will return to the region.

The potential exists for temperatures to run generally above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures into the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7-10 days of the month. There remains some disagreement among the ensembles about whether it will turn colder for a sustained period or just briefly, as well as with regard to the magnitude of the cold.

In terms of ENSO, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly went positive for the week centered around February 1st. That is the first positive reading since a +0.2 anomaly during the week centered around October 6, 2021.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +21.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.145 today.

On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.970 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.003 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.3° (3.4° above normal).

 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Neutral ENSO winters which occur near the solar max historically are very bad for some reason...there has been many theories as to why...most likely its that the AO/NAO simply average strongly positive in those years but it may also be that without the La Nina/El Nino you lose some ability to get pronounced ridging or troughing in some locations so the pattern has a tendency to be more zonal and the bad AO/NAO amplify that issue 

Hello! Do you have a list of those neutral winters with solar maxes? (or a link to where I can find it?) Wasn't familiar with that correlation!

[LibertyBell]

On 2/9/2023 at 1:36 PM, bluewave said:

That area experienced its peak in the 2000s while NYC was during the 2010s.

I remember when we had the 4 straight years of 40"+ from 2002-03 through 2005-06 we said that would never happen again lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine and a fresh breeze, much of the region experienced near record and record warmth. Daily records included:

Atlantic City: 63° (old record: 60°, 1959 and 2001)
Baltimore: 66° (tied record set in 1959 and tied in 1960)
Boston: 60° (tied record set in 1990)
Bridgeport: 62° (old record: 54°, 2001)
Hartford: 62° (old record: 55°, 1909)
Islip: 62° (old record: 56°, 2022)
New Haven: 62° (old record: 53°, 2022)
New York City-JFK: 60° (old record: 56°, 2001 and 2022)
New York City-LGA: 60°, 2001 (tied record set in 2001)
New York City-NYC: 61° (tied record set in 1990 and tied in 2001)
Portland: 52° (tied record set in 1955)
Providence: 64° (old record: 58°, 1909)
Raleigh: 75° (tied record set in 1899 and tied in 1938)
Scranton: 57° (tied record set in 1909 and tied in 1955)
Sterling, VA: 65° (old record: 63°, 1990 and 2001)
Westhampton: 62° (old record: 56°, 2001)
White Plains: 59° (old record: 55°, 2001)
Wilmington, NC: 80° (old record: 77°, 1932 and 1965)
Worcester: 56° (old record: 55°, 1909)

A storm passing well to the south of the region could bring some rain and wind to the coastal plain Sunday into Monday. The heaviest precipitation will fall south and east of New York City, along the Jersey shore and parts of Long Island. Afterward, much milder air will return to the region.

The potential exists for temperatures to run generally above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures into the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7-10 days of the month. There remains some disagreement among the ensembles about whether it will turn colder for a sustained period or just briefly, as well as with regard to the magnitude of the cold.

In terms of ENSO, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly went positive for the week centered around February 1st. That is the first positive reading since a +0.2 anomaly during the week centered around October 6, 2021.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +21.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.145 today.

On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.970 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.003 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.3° (3.4° above normal).

 

Don I read that Islip reached 63 today?

If it's not going to snow this is exactly the kind of weather I want, strong downsloping westerly winds and dry and sunny conditions.

It can be like this all year long.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

You may have heard about the "green comet" 2022 E3 (ZTF), tonight is the easiest find as it passes very close to Mars in the night sky. It's actually located between us and Mars and heading slowly away from the inner solar system after making its closest approach to the Sun on Jan 12, and its closest approach to earth on Feb 1st. 

If you have reasonably dark and clear skies available tonight, locate Mars and the comet will be in the same binocular field, especially if you place Mars in the bottom right quadrant. Mars is easy to find. You just need to locate Orion, the most familiar constellation, high in the south around 8 p.m., then look up higher to the right, where you will see two red star-like objects, the lower one is Aldebaran which is always in that position, and the higher one (somewhat brighter) is Mars. Then the comet will be passing just to the left of Mars as you see it, towards 0300h EST, but at the leisurely speed of the comet, it will be fairly close to Mars all night. I am hoping to get a view here although we have a lot of high overcast and a moderately dimmed sun at this point (it is 2:20 p.m. here). 

You wouldn't likely see the comet "naked eye" as it is sixth magnitude, fainter than such barely visible objects as the individual stars of the Pleiades (also in view above Mars) or various background stars that I might be able to spot here in the dark skies of the semi-wilderness. People reading this in more rural areas of the country have a better chance of spotting the comet. 

We passed Mars on December 8th at the full moon (and it was occulted at that time), so as Mars moves about half our speed, it has covered the portion of its orbit that we covered by January 9th. Our line of sight to Mars is back to around where it was in the sky on November 25th, that's due to parallax. If we were able to observe from a point back around our orbital position of January 9th, Mars would appear further to the left in the sky, over around Castor and Pollux over the other (left) shoulder of Orion. Mars will soon start to move prograde again as we reach the point of greatest angular difference and this optical illusion of retrograde motion ends.

So for the comet, just locate Mars, get it into the lower right portion of your field of vision, and you should find the comet in the upper left, then center view in on it. Mars may then be at the edge of your field of vision or slightly outside it. 

If you don't get a chance tonight, there will be a similar close approach in the sky to Aldebaran about four days (nights) later (night of 14th-15th) with the closest approach about 8 p.m. 14th. It will appear slightly closer to Aldebaran than to Mars. Aldebaran is between us and the Hyades star cluster which presents well in binoculars. The comet may therefore appear to be a member of that, so its tail will be the distinguishing feature. 

Both tonight and the 14th-15th are good for avoiding problems of moonlight, the Moon rises about midnight tonight and quite late in the early morning hours on the 15th. So if you time it well, the Moon won't be interfering with your view at all. 

Just use some binoculars and you're all set.

10x50 or 12x60 are preferable

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we see mid to upper 60s late next week. Looking like quite a blowtorch. 

I wouldn't call it a blowtorch, I'd call it very pleasant and ideal weather for spring.