EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: I guess Euro takes the mjo in 8 and not into the COD. I'm busy at work so I haven't looked. Just a guess. Correct, however today the GEFS also moved into 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Gfs turns colder mid range Big turnaround from past runs 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs turns colder mid range Big turnaround from past runs Maybe declaring winter over is what we needed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 It's interesting that many winters that are in the winter futility top ten (now and earlier) end up with some wintry weather in mid-March. 1916, 1932 and 1950 all had significant cold and snow after mid-February and into mid-March. 1992-93 hasn't made the top ten futility list but it must have been around 15th at some point by early February before it turned colder and eventually several significant snowfalls followed. Since the models are not showing much potential to late February, I guess mid-March is the last chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Today the temperature rose to a near record 68° in Baltimore. That warm air is now pushing northward. As a rsult, the temperature could spike into the upper 50s and lower 60s tomorrow before cooler air returns. Daily records include: Bridgeport: 54°, 2001 Islip: 56°, 2022 New Haven: 53°, 2022 New York City-JFK: 56°, 2001 and 2022 New York City-LGA: 60°, 2001 New York City-NYC: 61°, 1990 and 2001 Newark: 63°, 1990 Philadelphia: 65°, 1925 White Plains: 55°, 2001 A storm passing well to the south of the region could bring some rain and wind to the coastal plain with a small chance of some frozen precipitation in the interior Sunday into Monday. Afterward, much milder air will return to the region. The potential exists for temperatures to run generally above to much above normal through mid-month. Both the CFSv2 and EPS weeklies show much above normal temperatures through the second week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7-10 days of the month. There remains some disagreement among the ensembles about whether it will turn colder for a sustained period or just briefly, as well as with regard to the magnitude of the cold. In terms of ENSO, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly went positive for the week centered around February 1st. That is the first positive reading since a +0.2 anomaly during the week centered around October 6, 2021. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +17.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.229 today. On February 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.003 (RMM). The February 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.832 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.0° (3.1° above normal). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Bye El Ninos arent good for us. You want a reset, fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, mattinpa said: Maybe declaring winter over is what we needed. The old reverse psychology trick! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The next 8 days look +Double Digit. Avg. 46(40/52) or +10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: El Ninos arent good for us. You want a reset, fine. nyc's biggest snowstorm on record happened during one of the strongest ninos on record 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 37 minutes ago, forkyfork said: nyc's biggest snowstorm on record happened during one of the strongest ninos on record True but other than that one storm most of that winter was mild and snowless, with the warmest December in history beating the old mark by 7 degrees. I’ll pass on another one of those. I still prefer winters with several storms of moderate size, with prolonged snow cover and average to slightly below average temperatures. Of course even up where I am in Orange County those are getting less and less frequent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 42 minutes ago, forkyfork said: nyc's biggest snowstorm on record happened during one of the strongest ninos on record Yeh, and the rest of the winter was garbage. including a +15 in December. How was your December blocking call this year? Almost worth the shutout 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 0Z RGEM has ice Sunday night for NW NJ and parts of the HV. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2023021000&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Yeh, and the rest of the winter was garbage. including a +15 in December. How was your December blocking call this year? Almost worth the shutout Yea. Troll mets who put their thoughts out there. Awesome. His December blocking call was on point btw. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: nyc's biggest snowstorm on record happened during one of the strongest ninos on record Feb 1983, Feb 2003, 75 miles away from 2 feet on 2/6/10 and several others that winter that did hit, etc in addition to Jan 2016. I’ll take a Nino any day. If 97-98 wasn’t so overwhelmingly warm it would’ve been a very solid winter since there were so many good tracks. Not endless cutters like so many Nina years. The real wild card is the W Pacific in any Nino now though since we had the W Pacific warm pool in 18-19 and much of the winter behaved like a Nina as a result. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: True but other than that one storm most of that winter was mild and snowless, with the warmest December in history beating the old mark by 7 degrees. I’ll pass on another one of those. I still prefer winters with several storms of moderate size, with prolonged snow cover and average to slightly below average temperatures. Of course even up where I am in Orange County those are getting less and less frequent. Well if our options are this year or 2016 I know which one I'm taking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: True but other than that one storm most of that winter was mild and snowless, with the warmest December in history beating the old mark by 7 degrees. I’ll pass on another one of those. I still prefer winters with several storms of moderate size, with prolonged snow cover and average to slightly below average temperatures. Of course even up where I am in Orange County those are getting less and less frequent. I missed that winter living in TX but weren’t there several other decent snowstorms especially for the coast in Feb and March? LI easily passed 40” that winter. Whether it’s one storm that does most or several, to me that’s a success. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 hours ago, the_other_guy said: El Ninos arent good for us. You want a reset, fine. Weak Ninos are good, too strong and it’s congrats DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 27 minutes ago, George001 said: Weak Ninos are good, too strong and it’s congrats DC. Congrats DC is usually good for us too. Other than rare occasions like 2/6/10 which I think was the only occasion NYC recorded a trace and Philly anything like their 24”. There have definitely been lesser NYC screw occasions like in March 2014 that were good events in S NJ and the DC area but the big dogs usually find their way north enough to get to NYC. There are also many Congrats Boston events that are good for us too but shaft anyone west of the Delaware if not worse. That’s why NYC is so tough to forecast for. We’re on the fest vs bust line on any big event. There hasn’t been one huge event I can remember where it’s been “given” that NYC would get slammed more than 72 hours out. The huge Nino events and Blizzard of 96 were given to nail DC, 2/8/13, 1/25/15 were given to nail Boston. Had last Jan’s big storm been just a little better consolidated like Boxing Day 2010 (which gave zero to DC) vs. the mess of convective lows it was, the best snow might’ve been over the NYC area. NYC in all was on the line until eventually we had to fall on one side of the knife. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: Congrats DC is usually good for us too. Other than rare occasions like 2/6/10 which I think was the only occasion NYC recorded a trace and Philly anything like their 24”. There have definitely been lesser NYC screw occasions like in March 2014 that were good events in S NJ and the DC area but the big dogs usually find their way north enough to get to NYC. There are also many Congrats Boston events that are good for us too but shaft anyone west of the Delaware if not worse. That’s why NYC is so tough to forecast for. We’re on the fest vs bust line on any big event. There hasn’t been one huge event I can remember where it’s been “given” that NYC would get slammed more than 72 hours out. The huge Nino events and Blizzard of 96 were given to nail DC, 2/8/13, 1/25/15 were given to nail Boston. Had last Jan’s big storm been just a little better consolidated like Boxing Day 2010 (which gave zero to DC) vs. the mess of convective lows it was, the best snow might’ve been over the NYC area. NYC in all was on the line until eventually we had to fall on one side of the knife. IIRC NYC seemed to be in the prime spot for February 1, 2021 several days out, the models mostly all had the heaviest snow along an NYC-ABE-MDT axis inside 100 hours. Unfortunately the storm tucked a little more than expected and the heaviest snow ended up west of the City. Still was only 2" away from being an HECS so it definitely counts as a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 It does look like the ssw is going to actually go off. Meeting the technical wind reversal definition. In addition to the eps, the GEFS is now 100% for the past few runs now. Will be interesting to see how/if it works with the troposphere following this. Be curious to see some cross sections on what is happening once this gets underway. Never can be certain with these things but worth keeping tabs on. It's something to watch at least. Hope everyone enjoys this very nice mild Friday on tap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 May set some record highs this am. Up to 61 here. Big temp range..60 in Central Park, 42 at TEB, 51 at EWR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 9th. For @Roger Smith, 1992-1993 ranked 18th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 58 at my station 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 6 hours ago, George001 said: Weak Ninos are good, too strong and it’s congrats DC. I will take my chances with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Morning thoughts… Unseasonable warmth covers parts of the region that saw the warm front move through last night. Already, White Plains reached a record 56° (old record: 55°, 2001). Today will be partly sunny, breezy, and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 58° It will turn cooler for the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 41.2° Newark: 30-Year: 41.9°; 15-Year: 42.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.0° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Big range in temperatures this morning across small distances. Central Park 60 and Newark 51. Poughkeepsie low 30s and some places a short distance away in the 40s. 52 degrees here after getting up to 54 during the night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 In a normal winter Long Island would probably get some snow Sunday. The storm is off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Earlier today, NYC tied its daily record of 61. That record was set in 1990 and tied in 2001. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(40/51) or +9. Month to date is 35.2[+1.0]. Should be 39.8[+4.7] by the 18th. Reached 50 here yesterday. Today: Slowing falling T's from near 60, wind sw. to w-breezy, m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM. The last week of the month is now Toasted Almonds and we get this for Week 1 in March. Keep pushing it forward boys and the headline will be........... Memorial Day Weekend is a Snow Out in the Northeast. lol 58*(75%RH) here at 6am{was 48* at midnight and 58* at 3am}. 59* at 7am. 57* at 8am. 56* at 9am. 56* at Noon. 55* at 1pm. 57* at 2pm. 57*/58* all PM. 53* at 6pm. 47* at 10pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Both the GEFS and ECMWF have the MJO hitting phase 8 at a good amplitude before quickly plummeting into the COD. This is our best opportunity since we somehow messed up December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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