forkyfork Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 -3 would be nyc's coldest temp since 1943 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: -3 would be nyc's coldest temp since 1943 No chance this happens imo. It'll prob end up in the low teens or something 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: Sorry man, this is brutal. Not even having the excitement of a trackable event even if it doesn’t pan out for one area or another is especially tough. It just feels like an endless shutout without any dopamine injection from a model showing at least a quasi-favorable outcome in the short range. Most fun I’ve had on AmericanWX was in the lead up to 1/29/22, and second most fun was going back and skimming the threads from old storms the past decade. you weren't on forums for Feb 2021? that was an insane stretch. NYC got a historic blizzard and 30" in a month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No chance this happens imo. It'll prob end up in the low teens or something thanks for backing up this statement with reasons 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No chance this happens imo. It'll prob end up in the low teens or something If there’s the north wind down the Hudson with no downsloping it may get pretty close. -3 is likely overdone but could get to 0. There’s also no snow here but it’s on the ground close enough to here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: thanks for backing up this statement with reasons 60’s by Wednesday on the euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 we had no snow on the ground and got down to 6 or 7 in december 2022 on a ssw wind... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 The Euro argues the 850s are cold enough at -28C. It probably comes down to timing issues...we ideally want the coldest air aloft in that 08-12Z period which we have but if the core of the coldest temps begin sliding NE we want the winds to drop off somewhat...15kts is not too bad, 15G25 would probably mix things enough that NYC if we lost the strongest CAA would not go below 0. The wind direction of 320-330 is fairly good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you weren't on forums for Feb 2021? that was an insane stretch. NYC got a historic blizzard and 30" in a month Nah, signed up last January (before Hunga Tonga erupted, funnily enough). Began reading the forums I believe last November before making an account. 2021 unfortunately was much less eventful down my ways, still got snow but not nearly the bombardment up north received. The big Feb 1 storm gave me at my house 5-6 inches but 18+ at my work west of NYC. Was a fun up at work at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: thanks for backing up this statement with reasons No snow cover and it's a glancing shot for us. Vortex is too far north. New England is in the path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I see even 12z GFS now develops a little band of snow that drops a little half inch coating across northern NJ wednesday morning. Very minor, but it's looking more likely that we'll get a little something to finally end NYC's no measurable snow streak. meh might as well break the record we've gotten this far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 56 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you weren't on forums for Feb 2021? that was an insane stretch. NYC got a historic blizzard and 30" in a month That sounds more like January 2016 There was no historic blizzard here in February 2021 although it was a fun time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That sounds more like January 2016 There was no historic blizzard here in February 2021 although it was a fun time. Central Park had 17.2” from that. I still think that’s a top 10 event or close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 The HRRR doubles down again at 18z....the look of the precip signature again appears to be something induced by the 250mb jet...the 18Z NAM now has a signal as well. There is gonna be a "screw zone" in all likelihood between the jet activity and the main system...we may really want the whole thing to shift 50-70 miles north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: thanks for backing up this statement with reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Minus 1 for NYC on the eps mean. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 IF zero occurs in CP... I think that would be amazing WITHOUT snow cover, despite whatever CP can measure Tuesday and Wednesday morning at 12z (presuming there is a short period of snow each morning) 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: Central Park had 17.2” from that. I still think that’s a top 10 event or close. We changed to rain after a foot didn't we? Did Central Park never mix or change over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, EasternLI said: Minus 1 for NYC on the eps mean. Sounds like VD 2014....was that airmass colder than this one is projected to be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 After the short-lived Arctic blast (February 3-4), much of the eastern half of North America will again turn much warmer than normal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 8 hours ago, forkyfork said: -3 would be nyc's coldest temp since 1943 Did that also happen in February? and wow -13 in Boston....when was the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Did that also happen in February? and wow -13 in Boston....when was the last time that happened? 1943 in feb boston got to minus-14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Pretty big jump north on the 0z NAM. But precipitation still doesn't get north of MD. Not surprised to see the NAM make noticeable shifts, particularly after 48 hours. It's more in line with the GFS now. It would take a significant change in timing of the waves to get this much further north. The southern wave has to be further out ahead of the suppressive northern stream. These kinds of miracles don't seem to happen in the modern modeling regime. Credit to model development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 It was snowing today in Las Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Central Park had 17.2” from that. I still think that’s a top 10 event or close. Central Park had 17.4 from that storm which ties it for 16th on the all time list. You have to get over 18.1 inches now to break into the top ten in NYC. I received 27 from that up in Orange County. Great storm hard to believe only two years ago considering what we’re dealing with this year. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 ^^Yeah but it was probably more because... CP can't measure snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Like I have been saying. Stick a fork in winter, its done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2023 Author Share Posted January 31, 2023 Lol sure why not 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 ACY jackpot. Should I chase? Only an hour south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: ACY jackpot. Should I chase? Only an hour south of me. I'm 5 miles north of ac at my parents house and it's been raining all morning. 0 snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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